Comcast (CMCSA)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$21.90+0.60%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Comcast’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.61 → 3.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain strong balance sheet	The company invests in core growth businesses and maintains a solid balance sheet.	Intact	Net income remains negative or below $0 in FY26	Net income: $3.526B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $1 billion annually. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20263,526,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 29ab74f9-b0d5-4ee9-8d44-4df808c07979. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow ranged from $3.9 billion in 2026-Q1 to $4.6 billion in 2026-Q2, while total capital returned to shareholders ranged from $3.2 billion in 2025-Q1 to $2.1 billion in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasized disciplined capital allocation and maintaining a strong balance sheet, with financials showing steady free cash flow generation and shareholder returns, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow near $3.9 billion	It grew revenue 5.3% in Q1 2026 and has a strong free cash flow of $3.9 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $3.5 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $5.19B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.9 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20265,190,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand media business via acquisitions	Recent acquisitions strengthen its media presence.	Intact	Acquisition integration fails or revenue contribution delayed beyond FY27	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain positive revenue growth	A primary condition in Comcast's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 0% next year	Revenue growth: -1.23% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 2026-1.230495 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 29ab74f9-b0d5-4ee9-8d44-4df808c07979. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.56

$3.68 → $3.56 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$117.48B

$119.92B → $117.48B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.68	$119,919,862,890	20 / 21
2026-07-25	$3.64	$119,531,903,527	14 / 17
2026-07-26	$3.64	$118,773,541,810	20 / 21
2026-07-27	$3.63	$118,623,439,910	20 / 22
2026-07-28	$3.63	$118,623,439,910	20 / 22
2026-07-29	$3.62	$118,490,256,290	20 / 22
2026-07-30	$3.62	$118,490,256,290	20 / 22
2026-07-31	$3.63	$118,700,717,658	14 / 17
2026-08-01	$3.63	$118,700,717,658	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-03	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-04	$3.62	$118,442,938,110	20 / 22
2026-08-05	$3.62	$118,442,938,110	20 / 22
2026-08-06	$3.62	$118,442,938,110	20 / 22
2026-08-07	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-08	$3.62	$118,442,938,110	20 / 22
2026-08-09	$3.62	$118,442,938,110	20 / 22
2026-08-10	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-11	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-12	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-13	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-14	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-15	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-16	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-17	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-18	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-19	$3.62	$118,653,399,476	14 / 17
2026-08-20	$3.62	$118,653,404,435	14 / 17
2026-08-21	$3.62	$118,653,404,435	14 / 17
2026-08-22	$3.62	$118,653,404,435	14 / 17
2026-08-23	$3.62	$118,653,404,435	14 / 17
2026-08-24	$3.62	$118,653,404,435	14 / 17
2026-08-25	$3.62	$118,653,404,435	14 / 17
2026-08-26	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-08-27	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-08-28	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-08-29	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-08-30	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-08-31	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-09-01	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-09-02	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-09-03	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-09-04	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-09-05	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-09-06	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-09-07	$3.62	$118,653,405,208	14 / 17
2026-09-08	$3.61	$118,517,376,885	14 / 17
2026-09-09	$3.61	$118,517,371,556	14 / 17
2026-09-10	$3.61	$118,517,371,556	14 / 17
2026-09-11	$3.61	$118,535,704,889	14 / 17
2026-09-12	$3.61	$118,535,704,889	14 / 17
2026-09-13	$3.61	$118,535,704,889	14 / 17
2026-09-14	$3.61	$118,535,704,889	14 / 17
2026-09-15	$3.61	$118,535,704,889	14 / 17
2026-09-16	$3.59	$118,348,522,929	14 / 17
2026-09-17	$3.59	$118,225,819,704	14 / 17
2026-09-18	$3.59	$118,225,819,704	14 / 17
2026-09-19	$3.59	$118,225,819,704	14 / 17
2026-09-20	$3.58	$118,172,456,067	14 / 17
2026-09-21	$3.58	$118,172,456,067	14 / 17
2026-09-22	$3.58	$118,172,456,067	14 / 17
2026-09-23	$3.58	$118,117,642,972	14 / 17
2026-09-24	$3.58	$117,920,597,517	14 / 17
2026-09-25	$3.57	$117,889,810,381	14 / 17
2026-09-26	$3.56	$117,731,409,586	14 / 17
2026-09-27	$3.56	$117,731,409,586	14 / 17
2026-09-28	$3.56	$117,731,409,586	14 / 17
2026-09-29	$3.56	$117,731,409,586	14 / 17
2026-09-30	$3.56	$117,731,409,586	14 / 17
2026-10-01	$3.56	$117,731,409,586	14 / 17
2026-10-02	$3.56	$117,731,409,586	14 / 17
2026-10-03	$3.57	$117,630,287,417	14 / 17
2026-10-04	$3.57	$117,630,287,417	14 / 17
2026-10-05	$3.57	$117,630,287,417	14 / 17
2026-10-06	$3.57	$117,630,304,821	15 / 17
2026-10-07	$3.57	$117,630,304,821	15 / 17
2026-10-08	$3.57	$117,562,356,916	15 / 17
2026-10-09	$3.57	$117,562,356,916	15 / 17
2026-10-10	$3.57	$117,562,356,916	15 / 17
2026-10-11	$3.57	$117,552,964,049	14 / 17
2026-10-12	$3.57	$117,552,964,049	14 / 17
2026-10-13	$3.57	$117,552,964,049	14 / 17
2026-10-14	$3.56	$117,480,504,544	14 / 17
2026-10-15	$3.56	$117,480,504,544	14 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	16	3
2026-06-01	10	17	3
2026-07-01	9	16	3
2026-08-01	10	16	3
2026-09-01	10	16	4
2026-10-01	9	15	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 13 · prior Jul 13

$28.00 → $23.00-17.9%

ScotiabankOct 2 · prior Jul 24

$29.00 → $27.50-5.2%

BarclaysSep 29 · prior Jul 24

$26.00 → $24.00-7.7%

KeyBancSep 24

$18.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSSep 16 · prior Sep 15

$27.00 → $35.00+29.6%

$0$19.25$38.50

1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain strong balance sheetNet income: $3.526B
Free cash flow near $3.9 billionFree cash flow: $5.19B
Expand media business via acquisitionsQualitative condition
Sustain positive revenue growthPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Comcast outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on core growth areas like broadband and wireless. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results and management's commitment to growth initiatives.

What's priced into Comcast

The market currently prices CMCSA as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be fully accounting for the company's recent strong performance and ongoing growth strategies.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given management's focus on disciplined capital allocation and growth in key areas. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance, especially in light of industry trends.

What Comcast hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain or improve guidance in upcoming calls. Additionally, movements in interest rates and performance of sector peers will be crucial in shaping investor sentiment.