Chime Financial Inc (CHYM)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$29.57-1.96%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Chime Financial Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.93 → 0.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	About $705M	—
EBITDA	$105M–$110Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	745.99M
EPS	—	0.16
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.76B–$2.77B	2.77B
EPS	—	0.46
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.36B
EPS	—	0.942

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustain positive earnings per share growth	A primary condition in Chime Financial Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.33 in FY26.	Improving	EPS falls below $0.25 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.33 in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 03aa69cc-c316-494f-85ab-e5de00a76436. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 22% to 23% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Chime Financial Inc's published investment case. The stated target is 22% to 23% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26	Revenue growth: 26.81% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 22% to 23% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202626.814213 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 03aa69cc-c316-494f-85ab-e5de00a76436. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Implement $200 million share repurchase program	It has announced a $200 million share buyback program.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board approved a $200 million share repurchase authorization in 2026-Q1, reaffirmed in 2026-Q2. No specific repurchase amounts executed disclosed yet, so progress on execution is not quantifiable but the authorization remains active. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.94

$0.76 → $0.94 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.36B

$3.20B → $3.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.76	$3,200,951,560	15 / 19
2026-07-25	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-07-26	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-07-27	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-07-28	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-07-29	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-07-30	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-07-31	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-08-01	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-08-02	$0.74	$3,197,602,189	13 / 16
2026-08-03	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-08-04	$0.75	$3,200,449,990	16 / 20
2026-08-05	$0.76	$3,200,449,990	15 / 20
2026-08-06	$0.74	$3,197,582,903	13 / 16
2026-08-07	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-08	$0.78	$3,217,866,440	15 / 20
2026-08-09	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-10	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-11	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-12	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-13	$0.87	$3,286,418,340	16 / 20
2026-08-14	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-15	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-16	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-17	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-18	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-19	$0.83	$3,267,129,932	12 / 16
2026-08-20	$0.84	$3,290,414,739	13 / 16
2026-08-21	$0.84	$3,290,414,739	13 / 16
2026-08-22	$0.84	$3,290,414,739	13 / 16
2026-08-23	$0.84	$3,290,414,739	13 / 16
2026-08-24	$0.84	$3,290,414,739	13 / 16
2026-08-25	$0.84	$3,290,414,739	13 / 16
2026-08-26	$0.84	$3,293,422,689	13 / 16
2026-08-27	$0.84	$3,293,422,689	13 / 16
2026-08-28	$0.84	$3,293,422,689	13 / 16
2026-08-29	$0.84	$3,293,422,689	13 / 16
2026-08-30	$0.84	$3,293,422,689	13 / 16
2026-08-31	$0.84	$3,293,422,689	13 / 16
2026-09-01	$0.84	$3,293,422,689	13 / 16
2026-09-02	$0.84	$3,293,422,689	13 / 16
2026-09-03	$0.85	$3,296,640,656	13 / 16
2026-09-04	$0.85	$3,296,640,656	13 / 16
2026-09-05	$0.85	$3,296,640,656	13 / 16
2026-09-06	$0.85	$3,296,640,656	13 / 16
2026-09-07	$0.85	$3,296,640,656	13 / 16
2026-09-08	$0.85	$3,296,640,656	13 / 16
2026-09-09	$0.85	$3,296,640,656	13 / 16
2026-09-10	$0.89	$3,329,549,098	13 / 16
2026-09-11	$0.89	$3,329,549,098	13 / 16
2026-09-12	$0.89	$3,329,549,098	13 / 16
2026-09-13	$0.89	$3,329,549,098	13 / 16
2026-09-14	$0.89	$3,329,549,098	13 / 16
2026-09-15	$0.92	$3,343,703,197	13 / 16
2026-09-16	$0.93	$3,355,000,016	13 / 16
2026-09-17	$0.93	$3,355,000,016	12 / 16
2026-09-18	$0.93	$3,355,000,016	12 / 16
2026-09-19	$0.93	$3,355,000,016	12 / 16
2026-09-20	$0.93	$3,355,000,016	12 / 16
2026-09-21	$0.93	$3,355,000,016	12 / 16
2026-09-22	$0.93	$3,355,000,016	12 / 16
2026-09-23	$0.93	$3,355,000,016	12 / 16
2026-09-24	$0.93	$3,355,000,015	12 / 16
2026-09-25	$0.93	$3,356,468,196	12 / 17
2026-09-26	$0.93	$3,356,468,196	12 / 17
2026-09-27	$0.93	$3,356,468,196	12 / 17
2026-09-28	$0.93	$3,356,468,196	12 / 17
2026-09-29	$0.93	$3,356,468,196	12 / 17
2026-09-30	$0.93	$3,356,468,197	12 / 17
2026-10-01	$0.93	$3,356,468,197	12 / 17
2026-10-02	$0.93	$3,356,468,470	12 / 17
2026-10-03	$0.93	$3,356,468,470	12 / 17
2026-10-04	$0.93	$3,356,468,470	12 / 17
2026-10-05	$0.93	$3,356,468,470	12 / 17
2026-10-06	$0.93	$3,356,332,106	12 / 17
2026-10-07	$0.93	$3,356,332,106	12 / 16
2026-10-08	$0.93	$3,356,332,106	12 / 16
2026-10-09	$0.94	$3,360,072,679	12 / 16
2026-10-10	$0.94	$3,360,072,679	12 / 16
2026-10-11	$0.94	$3,360,072,679	12 / 16
2026-10-12	$0.94	$3,360,072,679	12 / 16
2026-10-13	$0.94	$3,360,072,679	12 / 16
2026-10-14	$0.94	$3,360,072,679	12 / 16
2026-10-15	$0.94	$3,360,072,679	12 / 16
2026-10-16	$0.94	$3,360,072,679	12 / 16
2026-10-17	$0.94	$3,360,072,679	12 / 16
2026-10-18	$0.94	$3,360,880,827	12 / 16
2026-10-19	$0.94	$3,360,880,827	12 / 16
2026-10-20	$0.94	$3,360,880,827	12 / 16
2026-10-21	$0.94	$3,360,880,827	12 / 16
2026-10-22	$0.94	$3,360,880,827	12 / 16
2026-10-23	$0.94	$3,360,880,827	12 / 16
2026-10-24	$0.94	$3,360,880,826	12 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	3
2026-06-01	16	3
2026-07-01	18	3
2026-08-01	18	3
2026-09-01	21	3
2026-10-01	22	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Seaport GlobalOct 8

$42.00New observation · no comparable prior

Raymond JamesOct 8

$35.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankOct 8

$35.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$23.10$46.20

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustain positive earnings per share growthDiluted EPS: $0.07 per share
Achieve 22% to 23% revenue growth in 2026Revenue growth: 26.81%
Implement $200 million share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Chime Financial Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CHYM is a growth business that has recently reached two consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability, though the evidence does not yet establish a durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Chime Financial Inc

The evidence labels expectations as justified and aligned, with no signs of concentrated fragility. CHYM trades at a 19% premium to peers, while the expectations gap is modestly negative, so valuation is not clearly cheap and the model has medium confidence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue grew from $647 million to $670 million between the first and second quarters of 2026, while year-over-year growth accelerated from 25% to 27%; net income remained positive but declined from $53 million to $28 million. Active Members grew 20% year over year to 10.4 million, and average revenue per member grew 6% to $260, supporting management’s stated growth and profitability priorities. Near-term risk is elevated despite a low estimated chance of missing, given erratic recent earnings surprises, peer misses, and the possibility of a guidance cut.

What Chime Financial Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth, profitability, and progress expanding Chime Prime; execution of the authorized share repurchase remains unclear because no amount executed has been disclosed. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as SAP, CRM, and NOW could support the sector backdrop.