C.H. Robinson (CHRW)

Q: What's priced into C.H. Robinson (CHRW) stock?

The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, with a valuation that is aligned with peers but at a slight premium. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market is not fully accounting for potential volatility in earnings.

Q: What does the C.H. Robinson (CHRW) outlook hinge on?

The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute their Lean AI strategy effectively and the performance of sector bellwethers like UPS and FDX. Any changes in guidance or earnings from these companies could significantly impact CHRW's outlook.

NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$139.49-3.01%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge C.H. Robinson’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.51 → 7.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures within $75M to $85M range	A primary condition in C.H. Robinson's published investment case. The stated target is capital expenditures <= $85 million.	Intact	capital expenditures exceed $85 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $4.975M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: capital expenditures <= $85 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20264,975,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently guided capital expenditures within $65M-$85M range for 2025 and 2026. Actual quarterly capex reported was $15M-$20M per quarter in 2025 and $18.2M in 2026-Q2, consistent with the guidance range, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Earnings per share beats consensus estimates	It has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, with recent beats near 9%.	Intact	EPS misses consensus by more than 5% next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
North American Surface Transportation revenue growth	Robinson is growing its North American Surface Transportation revenue by about 2.8% year-over-year.	Improving	NAST revenue growth falls below 1% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.51

$7.45 → $7.51 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$19.90B

$18.28B → $19.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.45	$18,283,437,450	25 / 21
2026-07-25	$7.45	$18,283,437,450	25 / 21
2026-07-26	$7.45	$18,283,437,450	25 / 21
2026-07-27	$7.45	$18,283,256,210	25 / 21
2026-07-28	$7.45	$18,283,256,210	25 / 21
2026-07-29	$7.45	$18,283,256,210	25 / 21
2026-07-30	$7.46	$18,272,303,831	15 / 16
2026-07-31	$7.50	$19,423,315,664	15 / 16
2026-08-01	$7.48	$19,277,473,160	25 / 22
2026-08-02	$7.51	$19,596,030,190	25 / 22
2026-08-03	$7.51	$19,596,030,190	25 / 22
2026-08-04	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-05	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-06	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-07	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-08	$7.49	$19,596,013,730	25 / 22
2026-08-09	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-10	$7.49	$19,596,013,730	25 / 22
2026-08-11	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-12	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-13	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-14	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-15	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-16	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-17	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-18	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 17
2026-08-19	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 17
2026-08-20	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-21	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-22	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-23	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-24	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-25	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-26	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-27	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-28	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-29	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-08-30	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-08-31	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-01	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-02	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-03	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-04	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-05	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-06	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-07	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-08	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-09	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-10	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-11	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-12	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-13	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-14	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-15	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-16	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-17	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-18	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-19	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-20	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-21	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-22	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-23	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-24	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-25	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-26	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-27	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-28	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-29	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-30	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-10-01	$7.52	$19,613,027,825	15 / 17
2026-10-02	$7.52	$19,613,027,825	15 / 17
2026-10-03	$7.52	$19,620,496,914	15 / 17
2026-10-04	$7.53	$19,631,699,687	15 / 17
2026-10-05	$7.53	$19,631,699,687	15 / 17
2026-10-06	$7.54	$19,634,921,624	15 / 17
2026-10-07	$7.51	$19,902,196,925	15 / 16
2026-10-08	$7.51	$19,906,696,366	15 / 16
2026-10-09	$7.51	$19,906,696,366	15 / 15
2026-10-10	$7.51	$19,906,696,366	15 / 15
2026-10-11	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15
2026-10-12	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15
2026-10-13	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15
2026-10-14	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15
2026-10-15	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	17	7	3
2026-06-01	17	6	3
2026-07-01	18	7	3
2026-08-01	18	7	2
2026-09-01	19	6	2
2026-10-01	19	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 15 · prior Jul 30

$192.00 → $170.00-11.5%

Deutsche BankOct 12 · prior Jul 22

$220.00 → $153.00-30.5%

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior Jul 31

$225.00 → $209.00-7.1%

Truist FinancialOct 7

$200.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 6

$203.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesOct 6 · prior May 20

$200.00 → $220.00+10.0%

Evercore ISIOct 6 · prior Jul 30

$237.00 → $217.00-8.4%

$0$130.35$260.70

1 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures within $75M to $85M rangeCapital expenditures: $4.975M
Earnings per share beats consensus estimatesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
North American Surface Transportation revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

C.H. Robinson outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a multi-year view on a company that operates in the industrials sector, facing headwinds. The current thesis state shows mixed signals, with recent performance indicating resilience but also underlying fragility in execution quality.

What's priced into C.H. Robinson

The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, with a valuation that is aligned with peers but at a slight premium. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market is not fully accounting for potential volatility in earnings.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, supported by recent operational improvements and a focus on productivity. However, the fragile earnings quality and elevated risk factors could lead to fluctuations in performance.

What C.H. Robinson hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute their Lean AI strategy effectively and the performance of sector bellwethers like UPS and FDX. Any changes in guidance or earnings from these companies could significantly impact CHRW's outlook.

Bottom line

Overall, CHRW's position is supported by recent financial performance, but it faces risks that could affect its trajectory. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.51

$7.45 → $7.51 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$19.90B

$18.28B → $19.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.45	$18,283,437,450	25 / 21
2026-07-25	$7.45	$18,283,437,450	25 / 21
2026-07-26	$7.45	$18,283,437,450	25 / 21
2026-07-27	$7.45	$18,283,256,210	25 / 21
2026-07-28	$7.45	$18,283,256,210	25 / 21
2026-07-29	$7.45	$18,283,256,210	25 / 21
2026-07-30	$7.46	$18,272,303,831	15 / 16
2026-07-31	$7.50	$19,423,315,664	15 / 16
2026-08-01	$7.48	$19,277,473,160	25 / 22
2026-08-02	$7.51	$19,596,030,190	25 / 22
2026-08-03	$7.51	$19,596,030,190	25 / 22
2026-08-04	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-05	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-06	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-07	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-08	$7.49	$19,596,013,730	25 / 22
2026-08-09	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-10	$7.49	$19,596,013,730	25 / 22
2026-08-11	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-12	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-13	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-14	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-15	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-16	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-17	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 16
2026-08-18	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 17
2026-08-19	$7.52	$19,635,181,974	15 / 17
2026-08-20	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-21	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-22	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-23	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-24	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-25	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-26	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-27	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-28	$7.51	$19,608,357,039	15 / 17
2026-08-29	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-08-30	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-08-31	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-01	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-02	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-03	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-04	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-05	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-06	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-07	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-08	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-09	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-10	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-11	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-12	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-13	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-14	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-15	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-16	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-17	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-18	$7.51	$19,608,446,430	15 / 17
2026-09-19	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-20	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-21	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-22	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-23	$7.51	$19,589,550,403	15 / 17
2026-09-24	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-25	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-26	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-27	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-28	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-29	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-09-30	$7.51	$19,610,276,793	15 / 17
2026-10-01	$7.52	$19,613,027,825	15 / 17
2026-10-02	$7.52	$19,613,027,825	15 / 17
2026-10-03	$7.52	$19,620,496,914	15 / 17
2026-10-04	$7.53	$19,631,699,687	15 / 17
2026-10-05	$7.53	$19,631,699,687	15 / 17
2026-10-06	$7.54	$19,634,921,624	15 / 17
2026-10-07	$7.51	$19,902,196,925	15 / 16
2026-10-08	$7.51	$19,906,696,366	15 / 16
2026-10-09	$7.51	$19,906,696,366	15 / 15
2026-10-10	$7.51	$19,906,696,366	15 / 15
2026-10-11	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15
2026-10-12	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15
2026-10-13	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15
2026-10-14	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15
2026-10-15	$7.51	$19,904,385,465	15 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings