ChargePoint Holdings Inc (CHPT)

Q: What's priced into ChargePoint Holdings Inc (CHPT) stock?

CHPT trades at a 1.63-times premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is moderate and the valuation model has medium confidence. The evidence points to an expensive valuation, but does not show that the full combination of weak performance and turbulence is priced in.

Q: What does the ChargePoint Holdings Inc (CHPT) outlook hinge on?

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on CHPT sustaining revenue growth within guidance, extending margin gains, and continuing to reduce operating losses. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.35+1.71%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ChargePoint Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	$105M–$115M	110.77M
EPS	—	-1.152
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	443.75M
EPS	—	-5.24
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	504.12M
EPS	—	-3.797

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase gross profit to improve margins	A supporting condition in ChargePoint Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Gross profit >= $29.6M next quarter.	Improving	Gross profit falls below $28M next quarter	Gross profit: $42.302M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $29.6M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 4, 202642,302,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 21e319c9-5e3f-4ac1-af32-3843bcdd427d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 5 quarters. GAAP gross margin improved from 31% in 2026-Q2 to 36% in 2027-Q2, and non-GAAP gross margin rose from 33% to 38% over the same period. Management's focus on margin improvement is reflected in these gains, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce operating losses toward profitability	Operating losses have improved by $6.7M, showing progress toward profitability.	Improving	Operating losses worsen beyond -$53.8M next quarter	Operating income: $-34.059M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating losses <= -$47.2M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 4, 2026-34,059,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 21e319c9-5e3f-4ac1-af32-3843bcdd427d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 5 quarters. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss improved significantly from $22.1 million in 2026-Q2 to $4.8 million in 2027-Q2, and GAAP operating expenses decreased from $89.7 million to $76.4 million. Management's cost discipline focus is delivering measurable reductions in operating losses. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Quarterly revenue within $90M to $110M guidance range	ChargePoint grows revenue within its $90M to $110M quarterly guidance.	Improving	Quarterly revenue falls below $90M or above $110M consistently	Revenue: $116.075M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90M and <= $110M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 4, 2026116,075,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 21e319c9-5e3f-4ac1-af32-3843bcdd427d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $98.6 million in 2026-Q2 to $116.1 million in 2027-Q2, an 18% increase year-over-year, consistently exceeding or meeting guidance ranges. Management has reiterated this growth focus each quarter and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$0.50B

$0.49B → $0.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$485,678,649	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$500,627,934	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$500,998,934	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$504,116,141	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	7	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	7	0
2026-10-01	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase gross profit to improve marginsGross profit: $42.302M
Reduce operating losses toward profitabilityOperating income: $-34.059M
Quarterly revenue within $90M to $110M guidance rangeRevenue: $116.075M

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-59.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ChargePoint Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk turnaround and growth story, not yet a durable, profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: execution has improved in some areas, but the recent signal has weakened and financial performance remains well below its industry cohort.

What's priced into ChargePoint Holdings Inc

CHPT trades at a 1.63-times premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is moderate and the valuation model has medium confidence. The evidence points to an expensive valuation, but does not show that the full combination of weak performance and turbulence is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and gross margins have improved, while adjusted EBITDA losses and operating expenses have fallen; management says revenue growth has met or exceeded guidance. Progress on reducing losses is mixed, and momentum recently dropped from 52.4 to 36.9 as the overall signal shifted to mixed. Guidance was reaffirmed as of July 31, 2026, but a cut on the next call is a stated risk; a recent earnings beat and a litigation filing add mixed signals.

What ChargePoint Holdings Inc hinges on