Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$105.88-1.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.24B
EPS	—	0.791
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$4.5B–$4.6B	4.59B
EPS	—	2.547
EBITDA	$305M–$315Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.98B
EPS	—	3.084

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit near or above $1.06B annually	A primary condition in Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.06B.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $987M in FY26	Gross margin: 25.06% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.06B. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 29, 202625.062788 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e71e06f-ffa8-478d-ac5f-51a279a3878e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross profit rose from $225.995 million in 2025-Q1 to $292.9 million in 2026-Q2, with margins improving from about 24.3% to 25.1%. Management consistently highlighted margin improvement driven by volume, price inflation, and operational efficiency. The trajectory shows delivering progress in gross profit and margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income growth sustained	Operating income rose from $22.7M to $33.1M last quarter.	Improving	Operating income declines below $22.7M quarterly run rate	Operating income: $58.629M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Sustain or grow operating income above Q1 2026 levels. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202658,629,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e71e06f-ffa8-478d-ac5f-51a279a3878e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income rose from $22.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $58.6 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting gains from higher gross profit partially offset by increased SG&A expenses. Management consistently emphasized improving operating income. The trajectory is delivering with clear operating income growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth at or above 8.7% annually	A primary condition in Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8.7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 8.7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 12.92% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202612.919724 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e71e06f-ffa8-478d-ac5f-51a279a3878e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $950.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $1.17 billion in 2026-Q2, a 12.9% increase year-over-year in the latest quarter. Management consistently emphasized organic sales growth, acquisitions, and market share gains. The trajectory is delivering with steady revenue growth across the periods. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-26 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.69 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.98B

$4.84B → $4.98B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.69	$4,842,616,633	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.69	$4,842,616,633	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.69	$4,842,616,633	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.69	$4,842,616,633	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.69	$4,842,616,656	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.69	$4,842,616,656	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.79	$4,855,727,767	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-11	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$3.00	$4,930,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$3.05	$4,948,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$3.05	$4,948,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$3.05	$4,948,221,964	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$3.05	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$3.05	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$3.05	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$3.05	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$3.05	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$3.05	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.07	$4,971,499,709	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.07	$4,971,493,547	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.07	$4,971,493,547	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.07	$4,971,493,547	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.07	$4,971,493,547	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.07	$4,971,493,547	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.08	$4,973,543,547	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.06	$4,977,621,196	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$3.06	$4,977,621,196	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$3.06	$4,977,621,196	5 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$4,977,621,196	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$4,979,471,096	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$4,979,471,096	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$4,979,471,096	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$4,979,471,096	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$4,979,471,096	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$4,979,471,096	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$4,990,237,525	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$4,984,778,810	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$4,984,778,810	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	8	2
2026-08-01	7	2
2026-09-01	7	2
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jul 15

$97.00 → $120.00+23.7%

$0$66.00$132.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit near or above $1.06B annuallyGross margin: 25.06%
Operating income growth sustainedOperating income: $58.629M
Revenue growth at or above 8.7% annuallyRevenue growth: 12.92%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented food distribution business, with recent performance supported by rising revenue and operating income. The multi-year view is intact, but management is rated neutral and the evidence snapshot gives only medium confidence.

What's priced into Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.

Valuation is expensive versus peers, and its valuation measure recently rose from 21.4 to 32.7. The expectations gap is neutral, the priced-in tag is justified, and the low fragility reading suggests the current setup is not unusually vulnerable to a change in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show strong growth: latest-quarter revenue was up 12.9% year over year, while gross margins and operating income also improved. Management’s stated priorities on growth, margins, and operating income are on track, but a guidance cut remains a risk; the snapshot also notes a quiet near-term miss-risk tier despite a history of a deep miss and a high-miss-rate industry.

What Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and further margin and operating-income progress. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could pressure the business outlook, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.