Cognex (CGNX)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$55.55+1.74%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cognex’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.00 → 1.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	273.44M
EPS	—	0.389
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$80M–$90M	1.15B
EPS	—	1.683
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.27B
EPS	—	1.984

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit rises to about $191M in Q1 2026	A supporting condition in Cognex's published investment case. The stated target is >= $191M.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $144M in any quarter	Gross profit: $205.773M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $191M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026205,773,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 5, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3b8e6a37-45b7-464d-9301-abc18c855fa5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to about $60M in Q1 2026	Operating income rose from $26M to $60M in one year.	Intact	Operating income falls below $26M in any quarter	Operating income: $85.517M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $60M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202685,517,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 5, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3b8e6a37-45b7-464d-9301-abc18c855fa5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $290M in Q2 2026	Cognex grows revenue about 10% a year, backed by strong demand.	Intact	Revenue falls below $268M in 2026-Q2	Revenue: $291.263M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$290M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 2026291,263,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 5, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3b8e6a37-45b7-464d-9301-abc18c855fa5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $268 million in 2026-Q1 to $291 million in 2026-Q2, representing a 17% year-over-year increase in Q2. Management emphasizes broad-based strength across major end markets, and the trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.98

$1.78 → $1.98 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.27B

$1.21B → $1.27B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.78	$1,207,428,320	19 / 20
2026-07-25	$1.78	$1,207,428,320	19 / 20
2026-07-26	$1.78	$1,207,428,320	19 / 20
2026-07-27	$1.78	$1,207,428,320	19 / 20
2026-07-28	$1.78	$1,207,428,320	19 / 20
2026-07-29	$1.78	$1,207,428,320	19 / 20
2026-07-30	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	14 / 14
2026-07-31	$1.78	$1,208,296,560	18 / 19
2026-08-01	$1.78	$1,208,296,560	18 / 19
2026-08-02	$1.78	$1,208,296,560	18 / 19
2026-08-03	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-04	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-05	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-06	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-07	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-08	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-09	$1.89	$1,231,659,930	17 / 18
2026-08-10	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-11	$2.00	$1,246,648,810	18 / 19
2026-08-12	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-13	$2.01	$1,250,491,810	18 / 19
2026-08-14	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-15	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-16	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-17	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-18	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-19	$1.80	$1,210,792,300	13 / 13
2026-08-20	$2.01	$1,252,404,495	13 / 13
2026-08-21	$2.01	$1,252,404,495	13 / 13
2026-08-22	$2.01	$1,252,404,495	13 / 13
2026-08-23	$2.01	$1,251,842,055	13 / 13
2026-08-24	$2.01	$1,251,842,055	13 / 13
2026-08-25	$2.01	$1,251,842,055	13 / 13
2026-08-26	$2.01	$1,251,842,055	13 / 13
2026-08-27	$2.01	$1,251,842,055	13 / 13
2026-08-28	$2.01	$1,251,842,055	13 / 13
2026-08-29	$2.01	$1,251,842,055	13 / 13
2026-08-30	$2.01	$1,251,842,055	13 / 13
2026-08-31	$2.01	$1,251,842,055	13 / 13
2026-09-01	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-02	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-03	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-04	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-05	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-06	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-07	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-08	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-09	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-10	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-11	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-12	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-13	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-14	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-15	$2.01	$1,251,842,044	13 / 13
2026-09-16	$2.01	$1,251,855,887	13 / 13
2026-09-17	$2.01	$1,251,855,887	13 / 13
2026-09-18	$2.01	$1,251,855,887	13 / 13
2026-09-19	$2.01	$1,251,855,887	13 / 13
2026-09-20	$2.01	$1,251,855,887	13 / 13
2026-09-21	$2.01	$1,251,855,887	13 / 13
2026-09-22	$2.01	$1,251,855,887	13 / 13
2026-09-23	$2.01	$1,251,851,555	13 / 13
2026-09-24	$2.00	$1,256,983,795	13 / 13
2026-09-25	$2.00	$1,256,983,795	13 / 13
2026-09-26	$2.00	$1,256,983,795	13 / 13
2026-09-27	$2.00	$1,256,983,795	13 / 13
2026-09-28	$2.00	$1,256,983,795	13 / 13
2026-09-29	$2.00	$1,256,983,795	13 / 13
2026-09-30	$2.00	$1,256,983,795	13 / 13
2026-10-01	$2.01	$1,258,921,953	13 / 13
2026-10-02	$2.01	$1,258,921,953	13 / 13
2026-10-03	$2.01	$1,258,931,100	13 / 13
2026-10-04	$2.01	$1,258,931,100	13 / 13
2026-10-05	$2.01	$1,258,931,100	13 / 13
2026-10-06	$2.01	$1,265,510,047	13 / 13
2026-10-07	$2.01	$1,265,510,047	13 / 13
2026-10-08	$1.99	$1,272,235,834	12 / 13
2026-10-09	$1.99	$1,272,235,834	13 / 13
2026-10-10	$1.99	$1,272,235,834	13 / 13
2026-10-11	$1.99	$1,272,235,834	13 / 13
2026-10-12	$1.99	$1,272,235,834	13 / 13
2026-10-13	$1.98	$1,272,230,571	13 / 13
2026-10-14	$1.98	$1,272,655,781	13 / 13
2026-10-15	$1.98	$1,272,655,781	13 / 13
2026-10-16	$1.98	$1,272,550,518	12 / 13
2026-10-17	$1.98	$1,272,550,518	12 / 13
2026-10-18	$1.98	$1,272,550,518	12 / 13
2026-10-19	$1.98	$1,272,550,518	12 / 13
2026-10-20	$1.98	$1,272,550,518	12 / 13
2026-10-21	$1.98	$1,272,550,518	12 / 13
2026-10-22	$1.98	$1,272,550,518	12 / 13
2026-10-23	$1.98	$1,272,550,518	12 / 13
2026-10-24	$1.98	$1,272,550,518	12 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	6
2026-06-01	16	5
2026-07-01	16	5
2026-08-01	15	6
2026-09-01	14	6
2026-10-01	14	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Aug 7

$78.00 → $74.00-5.1%

$0$42.90$85.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit rises to about $191M in Q1 2026Gross profit: $205.773M
Operating income improves to about $60M in Q1 2026Operating income: $85.517M
Revenue grows to about $290M in Q2 2026Revenue: $291.263M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cognex outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CGNX is a growth-oriented industrial technology business with a thesis built on revenue growth and improving margins. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, though earnings quality and management evidence are rated neutral.

What's priced into Cognex

Valuation is neutral overall, with CGNX at a 1.42 premium versus peers and a small positive expectations gap. The evidence labels the current pricing as justified, but confidence in the valuation model is low, so the size of that premium is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show strong execution: Q2 revenue rose 17% year over year, operating income increased, and operating and adjusted EBITDA margins expanded. These results support management’s stated growth and margin priorities, but a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk; the estimated miss probability is 26%, and recent peer misses add caution.

What Cognex hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on revenue growth and margin expansion continuing without a guidance cut. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support the broader technology backdrop, while weaker guidance or sector momentum would challenge the setup. The recently announced acquisition is another development to monitor, though the evidence gives no detail on its expected effect.