CF Industries (CF)

NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$120.85+0.90%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CF Industries’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+4.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.84 → 11.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
CAPEX near $1.3 billion	It plans about $1.3 billion in capital spending for 2026.	Broken	CAPEX falls below $950 million or above $1.5 billion in 2026	Capital expenditures: $271M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.3 billion CAPEX. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026271,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow >= $2 billion	Free cash flow is expected above $2 billion.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $1.8 billion next year	Free cash flow: $607M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2 billion free cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026607,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 37.6%	A primary condition in CF Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >=37.6% gross margin.	Intact	gross margin falls below 35% next year	Gross margin: 51.53% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=37.6% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202651.530153 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d2693e41-a25f-49fb-9228-b2906c0fea99. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near 19% YoY	A primary condition in CF Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below ~10% next year	Revenue growth: 17.57% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202617.566138 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d2693e41-a25f-49fb-9228-b2906c0fea99. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.27

$11.06 → $11.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.36B

$7.35B → $7.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.06	$7,347,645,460	8 / 20
2026-07-25	$10.80	$7,324,993,610	7 / 20
2026-07-26	$10.80	$7,324,993,610	7 / 20
2026-07-27	$10.80	$7,324,995,460	7 / 20
2026-07-28	$10.80	$7,324,995,460	7 / 20
2026-07-29	$10.80	$7,324,995,460	7 / 20
2026-07-30	$10.34	$7,327,645,460	7 / 20
2026-07-31	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	6 / 15
2026-08-01	$10.34	$7,327,645,460	7 / 20
2026-08-02	$10.34	$7,327,645,460	7 / 20
2026-08-03	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	6 / 15
2026-08-04	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	6 / 15
2026-08-05	$10.34	$7,327,645,460	7 / 20
2026-08-06	$10.34	$7,327,645,460	7 / 20
2026-08-07	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	6 / 15
2026-08-08	$10.43	$7,301,879,060	8 / 20
2026-08-09	$10.43	$7,301,879,060	8 / 20
2026-08-10	$10.43	$7,301,879,060	8 / 20
2026-08-11	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	6 / 15
2026-08-12	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	6 / 15
2026-08-13	$10.34	$7,280,216,280	9 / 20
2026-08-14	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	6 / 15
2026-08-15	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	7 / 15
2026-08-16	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	7 / 15
2026-08-17	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	7 / 15
2026-08-18	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	7 / 15
2026-08-19	$10.99	$7,278,667,044	7 / 15
2026-08-20	$10.57	$7,168,086,511	8 / 15
2026-08-21	$10.59	$7,174,139,142	8 / 15
2026-08-22	$10.59	$7,174,139,142	8 / 15
2026-08-23	$10.59	$7,174,139,142	8 / 15
2026-08-24	$10.56	$7,172,924,650	8 / 15
2026-08-25	$10.56	$7,172,924,650	8 / 15
2026-08-26	$10.56	$7,172,924,650	8 / 15
2026-08-27	$10.56	$7,172,924,650	8 / 15
2026-08-28	$10.56	$7,172,924,650	8 / 15
2026-08-29	$10.52	$7,178,402,300	8 / 15
2026-08-30	$10.52	$7,178,402,300	8 / 15
2026-08-31	$10.52	$7,178,402,300	8 / 15
2026-09-01	$10.52	$7,178,402,300	8 / 15
2026-09-02	$10.52	$7,178,402,300	8 / 14
2026-09-03	$10.52	$7,178,402,300	8 / 14
2026-09-04	$10.51	$7,174,202,428	8 / 15
2026-09-05	$10.51	$7,174,202,428	8 / 15
2026-09-06	$10.51	$7,174,202,428	8 / 15
2026-09-07	$10.51	$7,174,202,428	8 / 15
2026-09-08	$10.51	$7,174,202,428	8 / 15
2026-09-09	$10.51	$7,174,202,428	8 / 15
2026-09-10	$10.60	$7,202,155,512	8 / 14
2026-09-11	$10.60	$7,202,155,512	8 / 14
2026-09-12	$10.84	$7,267,091,317	8 / 14
2026-09-13	$10.84	$7,267,091,317	8 / 15
2026-09-14	$10.84	$7,267,091,317	8 / 15
2026-09-15	$10.84	$7,267,091,317	8 / 15
2026-09-16	$10.84	$7,267,091,317	8 / 15
2026-09-17	$10.84	$7,267,091,317	8 / 15
2026-09-18	$10.84	$7,267,091,317	8 / 15
2026-09-19	$10.84	$7,267,097,262	8 / 15
2026-09-20	$10.84	$7,267,097,262	8 / 15
2026-09-21	$10.84	$7,267,097,262	8 / 15
2026-09-22	$10.89	$7,294,608,441	8 / 15
2026-09-23	$10.89	$7,294,618,964	8 / 15
2026-09-24	$10.89	$7,294,618,964	8 / 15
2026-09-25	$10.94	$7,298,751,244	8 / 15
2026-09-26	$10.94	$7,298,751,244	9 / 16
2026-09-27	$10.94	$7,298,751,244	9 / 16
2026-09-28	$10.94	$7,298,751,244	9 / 16
2026-09-29	$11.24	$7,360,374,011	9 / 16
2026-09-30	$11.24	$7,360,374,011	9 / 16
2026-10-01	$11.24	$7,360,374,011	9 / 16
2026-10-02	$11.24	$7,360,374,011	9 / 16
2026-10-03	$11.24	$7,360,374,011	9 / 16
2026-10-04	$11.24	$7,360,374,011	9 / 16
2026-10-05	$11.24	$7,360,374,011	9 / 16
2026-10-06	$11.23	$7,354,818,456	9 / 16
2026-10-07	$11.26	$7,356,953,750	9 / 16
2026-10-08	$11.26	$7,356,953,750	9 / 16
2026-10-09	$11.26	$7,356,953,750	9 / 16
2026-10-10	$11.26	$7,356,953,750	9 / 16
2026-10-11	$11.26	$7,356,953,750	9 / 16
2026-10-12	$11.26	$7,356,953,750	9 / 16
2026-10-13	$11.26	$7,356,953,750	9 / 16
2026-10-14	$11.27	$7,360,081,528	9 / 16
2026-10-15	$11.27	$7,360,081,528	9 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	15	3
2026-06-01	6	14	3
2026-07-01	6	13	3
2026-08-01	6	14	3
2026-09-01	6	14	4
2026-10-01	6	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Redburn PartnersSep 28

$110.00New observation · no comparable prior

BernsteinSep 25

$162.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$89.10$178.20

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

CAPEX near $1.3 billionPublished status: Broken
Free cash flow >= $2 billionFree cash flow: $607M
Gross margin near 37.6%Gross margin: 51.53%
Revenue growth near 19% YoYPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CF Industries outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CF represents a durable compounder in the Materials sector. The current thesis state is mixed, with strong recent financial performance but elevated risks due to sector headwinds and a recent earnings miss.

What's priced into CF Industries

The market currently prices CF as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management's focus on disciplined capital expenditures and returning capital to shareholders is likely to support fundamentals in the near term. However, the recent earnings miss introduces some uncertainty, even with a low probability of missing expectations again soon.

What CF Industries hinges on

Key factors for CF's future include potential guidance cuts in upcoming earnings calls and the performance of sector peers like CTVA, MOS, and SMG. Additionally, inflation trends could significantly impact the business environment for CF.