CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC (CBRS)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-16

$127.21-10.52%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.24 → 1.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Core revenue growth must stay strong	A primary condition in CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=880 million.	Improving	Core revenue falls below $880 million this year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Core revenue grew from approximately $194 million in 2026-Q1 to $210 million in 2026-Q2, more than doubling year-over-year. Full year 2026 guidance was raised from $855-$865 million to $880-$890 million. The trajectory is delivering strong growth consistent with management's stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
Gross margin must improve to target range	A supporting condition in CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=41%.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls below 41% this year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Core gross margin improved to 41% in 2026-Q2 from about 32.6% in 2025-Q2, a 940 basis point increase. Guidance for full year 2026 was raised to 41%-43% from prior 38%-41%. The trajectory shows delivering margin improvement consistent with management's statements. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
Operating margin must improve toward target range	A supporting condition in CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=-19%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below -19% this year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Core operating margin improved to -16% in 2026-Q2 from about -42.6% in 2025-Q2, a 2,600 basis point improvement. Full year 2026 guidance was raised to -19% to -17% from prior -28% to -32%. The trajectory shows delivering significant operating margin improvement consistent with management's stated goal. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.24

$0.96 → $1.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.85B

$2.90B → $2.85B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-27	$0.96	$2,900,503,660	10 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.96	$2,900,503,660	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$0.96	$2,913,312,750	10 / 11
2026-07-30	$0.96	$2,913,312,750	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$0.96	$2,913,312,750	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.96	$2,913,312,750	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$0.96	$2,913,312,750	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$0.96	$2,913,312,750	10 / 11
2026-08-05	$0.96	$2,913,312,750	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$0.96	$2,913,312,750	10 / 11
2026-08-07	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.97	$2,904,449,110	10 / 11
2026-08-09	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-11	$0.97	$2,904,449,110	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-14	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$0.96	$2,770,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$1.24	$2,850,000,000	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	10	1
2026-10-01	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Core revenue growth must stay strongDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin must improve to target rangePublished status: Under Pressure
Operating margin must improve toward target rangeDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-59.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth investment with a focus on improving financial metrics. The current thesis state is mixed, as recent earnings beats indicate potential, but the lack of a strong performance history raises concerns.

What's priced into CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC

The market appears to have low fragility expectations, suggesting that it does not anticipate significant negative events. However, the elevated risk label indicates that investors are cautious about potential volatility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to drive core revenue growth and improve gross margins, which supports a positive fundamental trajectory. However, operating margins are still in a mixed state, and there is a low probability of missing guidance, which could impact sentiment.

What CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on macroeconomic factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, and the performance of key sector peers like NVDA and TSM. Additionally, any guidance changes from CBRS could significantly influence market perceptions.