Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$730.76-0.66%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Caterpillar Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

32.42 → 32.59 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Deliver long-term value via technology and AI backlog expansion	The company expands its mining tech and AI backlog, boosting long-term value.	Intact	Failure to advance technology initiatives or AI backlog declines	Backlog >$72B (demand exceeds supply) Demand exceeds $72B backlog; robot trucks deployed to new quarries; $1B NC manufacturing expansion announced. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating profit margin near 17.7%	Profit margin stays near 18%.	Intact	Operating profit margin falls below 15% next year	Operating margin: 20.91% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=17.7% operating profit margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202620.907365 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 41e91b3a-9e2c-44b9-a6eb-c76c17e2231e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Adjusted operating profit margin improved from 17.6% in 2025-Q2 to 21.9% in 2026-Q2 despite recurring unfavorable manufacturing costs and tariffs. The trajectory shows delivering progress on margin management amid cost pressures. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 13% YoY	A primary condition in Caterpillar Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 13% next year	Revenue growth: 23.98% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=13% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202623.984549 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 41e91b3a-9e2c-44b9-a6eb-c76c17e2231e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Valuation remains justified by growth and margins	A supporting condition in Caterpillar Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 35 or sustained revenue growth above 15%.	Broken	PE remains above 40 with revenue growth below 12%	Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$32.59

$30.45 → $32.59 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$88.90B

$84.64B → $88.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$30.45	$84,639,474,380	26 / 18
2026-07-25	$30.45	$84,639,474,380	26 / 18
2026-07-26	$30.45	$84,639,474,380	26 / 18
2026-07-27	$30.46	$85,231,391,304	18 / 14
2026-07-28	$30.45	$84,639,474,380	26 / 18
2026-07-29	$30.45	$84,639,474,380	26 / 18
2026-07-30	$30.45	$84,639,474,380	26 / 18
2026-07-31	$30.46	$85,231,391,304	18 / 13
2026-08-01	$30.46	$85,231,391,304	18 / 13
2026-08-02	$30.46	$85,231,391,304	18 / 13
2026-08-03	$30.45	$84,976,721,180	27 / 16
2026-08-04	$30.58	$85,231,391,304	18 / 13
2026-08-05	$30.58	$85,231,391,304	18 / 13
2026-08-06	$30.58	$85,231,391,304	18 / 13
2026-08-07	$31.92	$86,938,916,252	19 / 13
2026-08-08	$31.97	$87,025,373,200	27 / 16
2026-08-09	$31.97	$87,025,373,200	27 / 16
2026-08-10	$31.97	$87,025,373,200	27 / 16
2026-08-11	$31.97	$87,025,373,200	27 / 16
2026-08-12	$31.92	$86,938,916,252	19 / 13
2026-08-13	$31.92	$86,938,916,252	19 / 13
2026-08-14	$31.92	$86,938,916,252	19 / 13
2026-08-15	$31.92	$86,938,916,252	19 / 13
2026-08-16	$31.92	$86,938,916,252	19 / 13
2026-08-17	$31.92	$86,938,916,252	19 / 13
2026-08-18	$31.92	$86,938,916,252	19 / 13
2026-08-19	$31.92	$86,938,916,252	19 / 13
2026-08-20	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-21	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-22	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-23	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-24	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-25	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-26	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-27	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-28	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-29	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-30	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-08-31	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-09-01	$32.37	$88,343,575,177	19 / 13
2026-09-02	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-03	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-04	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-05	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-06	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-07	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-08	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-09	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-10	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-11	$32.42	$88,320,926,699	19 / 13
2026-09-12	$32.42	$88,321,040,121	19 / 13
2026-09-13	$32.42	$88,321,040,121	19 / 13
2026-09-14	$32.42	$88,321,040,121	19 / 13
2026-09-15	$32.42	$88,321,040,121	19 / 13
2026-09-16	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-17	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-18	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-19	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-20	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-21	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-22	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-23	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-24	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-25	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-26	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-27	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-28	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-29	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-09-30	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-10-01	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-10-02	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-10-03	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-10-04	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-10-05	$32.42	$88,321,034,565	19 / 13
2026-10-06	$32.47	$88,427,867,899	19 / 13
2026-10-07	$32.44	$88,427,867,899	19 / 13
2026-10-08	$32.44	$88,427,867,899	19 / 13
2026-10-09	$32.43	$88,504,209,406	19 / 14
2026-10-10	$32.43	$88,504,209,406	19 / 14
2026-10-11	$32.43	$88,504,209,406	19 / 14
2026-10-12	$32.43	$88,504,209,406	19 / 14
2026-10-13	$32.43	$88,504,209,406	19 / 14
2026-10-14	$32.45	$88,504,209,406	19 / 14
2026-10-15	$32.59	$88,899,024,551	19 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	11	3
2026-06-01	15	11	3
2026-07-01	15	12	3
2026-08-01	14	12	2
2026-09-01	15	12	2
2026-10-01	15	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 14 · prior Aug 5

$1002.00 → $749.00-25.2%

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Aug 5

$980.00 → $1100.00+12.2%

$0$605.00$1210.00

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain operating profit margin near 17.7%Operating margin: 20.91%
Sustain revenue growth near 13% YoYRevenue growth: 23.98%
Valuation remains justified by growth and marginsPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Caterpillar Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on driving sales volume growth and managing profit margins. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but faces headwinds from sector dynamics.

What's priced into Caterpillar Inc.

The market currently prices in an expensive valuation, suggesting that expectations for CAT's future performance are high. There is a significant expectations gap, indicating that any negative news could lead to a re-rating of the stock.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, as management is on track with its priorities of sales growth and margin management. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which could be influenced by recent misses from industry peers.

What Caterpillar Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like DE, CNH, and OSK. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support CAT's momentum, but any signs of weakness could negatively impact expectations.