Casey's (CASY)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$689.22+2.31%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Casey's’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

23.43 → 23.44 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex around $600 million in fiscal 2026	A supporting condition in Casey's's published investment case. The stated target is ~600 million USD.	Intact	capex exceeds $700 million in fiscal 2026	Capital expenditures: $194.395M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~600 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 8, 2026194,395,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently expects capex around $600 million for fiscal 2026. Actual purchase of property and equipment was $194.4 million in 2026-Q1, indicating ongoing disciplined capital spending. The trajectory matches the stated capex guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Inside same-store sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026	Same-store sales grew over 5.5% in 2026-Q4, beating targets.	Intact	same-store sales growth falls below 3.5% in fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Inside same-store sales growth ranged from 3.3% in 2026-Q2 to 4.0% in 2026-Q3, consistent with the target range of 3.5% to 4.5%. Prior quarters showed similar growth rates, indicating management is maintaining focus on this growth metric. The trajectory is delivering consistent inside sales growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Share repurchase authorization expanded to $1 billion	The company expanded its buyback program to $1 billion, showing strong capital return.	Intact	buyback authorization reduced below $800 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board expanded the share repurchase authorization from $400 million to $1 billion in 2026-Q2. The Company repurchased approximately $45.6 million of shares in 2026-Q3, with about $973 million remaining under the authorization. The trajectory is delivering on the expanded repurchase plan. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026	Casey's keeps opening many new stores, aiming for at least 80 in fiscal 2026.	Intact	store openings fall below 80 in fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently targets opening at least 80 stores in fiscal 2026, through new builds and acquisitions. Store count grew from 2,904 at 2025-Q4 to 2,959 at 2026-Q3, reflecting ongoing expansion. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with the stated plan. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$23.44

$23.50 → $23.44 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$21.00B

$20.81B → $21.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$23.50	$20,807,589,780	17 / 18
2026-07-25	$23.58	$20,751,815,172	13 / 14
2026-07-26	$23.61	$20,781,537,394	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$23.61	$20,781,537,394	13 / 14
2026-07-28	$23.61	$20,781,537,394	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$23.61	$20,781,537,394	13 / 14
2026-07-30	$23.61	$20,781,537,394	13 / 14
2026-07-31	$23.61	$20,781,537,394	13 / 14
2026-08-01	$23.61	$20,781,537,394	13 / 14
2026-08-02	$23.64	$20,736,037,394	13 / 14
2026-08-03	$23.64	$20,736,037,394	13 / 14
2026-08-04	$23.64	$20,736,037,394	13 / 14
2026-08-05	$23.64	$20,736,037,394	13 / 14
2026-08-06	$23.64	$20,736,037,394	13 / 14
2026-08-07	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-08	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-09	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-10	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-11	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-12	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-13	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-14	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-15	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-16	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-17	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-18	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-19	$23.64	$20,736,011,258	13 / 14
2026-08-20	$23.61	$20,732,858,059	13 / 14
2026-08-21	$23.61	$20,732,858,059	13 / 14
2026-08-22	$23.61	$20,732,858,059	13 / 14
2026-08-23	$23.61	$20,732,858,059	13 / 14
2026-08-24	$23.61	$20,732,858,059	13 / 14
2026-08-25	$23.61	$20,732,858,059	13 / 14
2026-08-26	$23.61	$20,746,341,392	13 / 14
2026-08-27	$23.61	$20,746,341,392	13 / 14
2026-08-28	$23.61	$20,746,341,392	13 / 14
2026-08-29	$23.64	$20,690,953,853	13 / 14
2026-08-30	$23.64	$20,690,953,853	13 / 14
2026-08-31	$23.64	$20,690,953,853	13 / 14
2026-09-01	$23.64	$20,690,979,989	13 / 14
2026-09-02	$23.64	$20,690,979,989	13 / 14
2026-09-03	$23.64	$20,690,979,989	13 / 14
2026-09-04	$23.64	$20,620,313,322	13 / 14
2026-09-05	$23.64	$20,601,147,215	12 / 14
2026-09-06	$23.64	$20,601,147,215	12 / 14
2026-09-07	$23.64	$20,601,147,215	12 / 14
2026-09-08	$23.64	$20,601,147,215	12 / 14
2026-09-09	$23.65	$20,607,101,182	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$23.51	$20,711,469,320	11 / 13
2026-09-11	$23.48	$20,889,322,896	11 / 13
2026-09-12	$23.48	$20,889,322,896	11 / 13
2026-09-13	$23.43	$20,889,322,896	11 / 13
2026-09-14	$23.43	$20,889,322,896	12 / 14
2026-09-15	$23.43	$20,889,322,896	12 / 14
2026-09-16	$23.43	$20,889,322,896	12 / 14
2026-09-17	$23.43	$20,889,322,896	12 / 14
2026-09-18	$23.43	$20,889,322,896	12 / 14
2026-09-19	$23.43	$20,889,322,896	12 / 14
2026-09-20	$23.48	$20,928,362,746	12 / 14
2026-09-21	$23.48	$20,928,362,746	12 / 14
2026-09-22	$23.48	$20,949,696,079	12 / 14
2026-09-23	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-09-24	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-09-25	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-09-26	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-09-27	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-09-28	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-09-29	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-09-30	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-10-01	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-10-02	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-10-03	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-10-04	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-10-05	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-10-06	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-10-07	$23.48	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-10-08	$23.45	$20,949,679,412	12 / 14
2026-10-09	$23.45	$20,949,679,412	13 / 14
2026-10-10	$23.45	$20,949,679,412	13 / 14
2026-10-11	$23.45	$20,949,679,412	13 / 14
2026-10-12	$23.45	$20,949,679,412	13 / 14
2026-10-13	$23.45	$20,949,679,412	13 / 14
2026-10-14	$23.45	$20,949,679,412	13 / 14
2026-10-15	$23.44	$20,998,068,301	13 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	7	0
2026-06-01	13	8	0
2026-07-01	14	7	0
2026-08-01	14	6	0
2026-09-01	15	8	1
2026-10-01	15	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Sep 9

$910.00 → $825.00-9.3%

$0$500.50$1001.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex around $600 million in fiscal 2026Capital expenditures: $194.395M
Inside same-store sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Share repurchase authorization expanded to $1 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Dec 8, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Casey's outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state remains intact, supported by recent earnings beats and ongoing store expansion efforts.

What's priced into Casey's

The market appears to price in a durable premium for CASY, reflecting expectations of consistent growth. However, it is considered expensive compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some growth may already be factored in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management's execution on store openings and capital expenditures is mixed but shows commitment to growth. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is moderate risk from potential economic headwinds.

What Casey's hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet growth targets and navigate potential economic challenges. Key factors include guidance updates and macroeconomic indicators like inflation and job growth.