CarGurus (CARG)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.52-3.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CarGurus’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.02 → 3.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	263.52M
EPS	—	0.727
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.01B
EPS	—	2.62
Revenue growth	10%–13%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.11B
EPS	—	3.023

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase gross profit through operational efficiencies	Profit margins improve with gross profit rising to $224.6M.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $197.9M in Q1 2026	Gross profit: $231.098M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Increase gross profit to at least $224.6M in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026231,098,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e61d5c66-20fd-4d3f-af21-a6fe8ba75ecd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross profit increased from $196.1 million in 2024-Q4 to $231.1 million in 2026-Q2, a 12% increase in the latest quarter. Gross margin remained stable at 92%, down slightly by 86 basis points year-over-year. Management shows steady progress enhancing gross profit with some margin pressure. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase operating income through cost management	A supporting condition in CarGurus's published investment case. The stated target is Stabilize or increase operating income above $40M in FY26.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $40M in FY26	Operating income: $62.982M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Stabilize or increase operating income above $40M in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202662,982,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e61d5c66-20fd-4d3f-af21-a6fe8ba75ecd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income increased from $24.8 million in 2025-Q2 to $62.9 million in 2026-Q2, showing growth despite impairments recorded in some quarters. The trajectory shows progress but with some volatility due to impairments. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Year-over-year revenue growth of 10% to 13% for 2026	A primary condition in CarGurus's published investment case. The stated target is 10% to 13% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.24% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 10% to 13% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20267.237441 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e61d5c66-20fd-4d3f-af21-a6fe8ba75ecd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $212.2 million in 2025-Q1 to $251.0 million in 2026-Q2, representing 13% to 15% year-over-year growth each quarter. Full-year 2025 revenue grew 14% to $907.0 million. Management is delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.02

$2.92 → $3.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.11B

$1.11B → $1.11B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.92	$1,108,579,530	12 / 14
2026-07-25	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$2.92	$1,108,579,530	12 / 14
2026-07-27	$2.92	$1,108,579,530	12 / 14
2026-07-28	$2.92	$1,108,579,530	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$2.92	$1,108,579,530	12 / 14
2026-07-30	$2.92	$1,108,579,530	12 / 14
2026-07-31	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$2.92	$1,108,579,530	12 / 14
2026-08-03	$2.92	$1,108,579,530	12 / 14
2026-08-04	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-05	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-06	$2.92	$1,108,579,530	12 / 14
2026-08-07	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-09	$2.93	$1,108,674,310	12 / 14
2026-08-10	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-11	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-12	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-13	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-14	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-15	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-16	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-17	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-18	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-19	$2.92	$1,110,149,795	8 / 10
2026-08-20	$3.02	$1,104,866,770	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$3.02	$1,104,866,770	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$3.02	$1,104,866,770	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$3.02	$1,104,866,770	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$3.02	$1,104,866,770	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$3.02	$1,104,866,770	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$3.02	$1,104,866,770	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$3.02	$1,104,866,770	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$3.02	$1,104,866,770	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-17	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-18	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-19	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-20	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-21	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-22	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-23	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-24	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-25	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-26	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-27	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-28	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-29	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-09-30	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-10-01	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-10-02	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-10-03	$3.02	$1,105,028,308	7 / 10
2026-10-04	$3.03	$1,106,362,251	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.03	$1,106,362,251	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.03	$1,106,362,251	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.03	$1,106,362,251	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$3.02	$1,106,378,444	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	6
2026-06-01	9	6
2026-07-01	9	6
2026-08-01	9	6
2026-09-01	9	6
2026-10-01	9	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Aug 10

$41.00 → $38.00-7.3%

$0$22.55$45.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase gross profit through operational efficienciesGross profit: $231.098M
Increase operating income through cost managementPublished status: Under Pressure
Year-over-year revenue growth of 10% to 13% for 2026Revenue growth: 7.24%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CarGurus outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CARG is a growth-oriented business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, but company quality has weakened while momentum has improved.

What's priced into CarGurus

The evidence describes CARG as cheap versus peers, with no signs that the valuation is especially fragile. The expectations gap is negative, so market expectations appear less demanding than the model’s view of the business, though valuation confidence does not remove execution risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has continued to deliver revenue growth of 13% to 15% year over year, while operating income has risen despite some volatility from impairments. Gross margin remains high but has edged down, and the Communication Services sector backdrop is a headwind. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while the recent CEO transition adds some uncertainty.

What CarGurus hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining growth and improving operating income without further margin pressure or weaker guidance. Easier interest rates and strong results from large sector peers could support the broader sector backdrop, while a guidance cut or renewed execution problems would weaken the case.