NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Organic net sales change between -1% and 1% for fiscal 2026: FY26 organic sales -1.0% to +1.0% vs -1.0% target.
Conagra aims to reach adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $1.85 in fiscal 2026. The company targets an operating margin near 11.5%. New product launches could boost organic sales growth. Free cash flow yield is solid at 13%.
Conagra faces cost pressures and weak demand that threaten margins. Recent guidance cuts and analyst downgrades raise concerns. Revenue growth is expected to be flat or negative. The stock trades at a low valuation for a reason.
The market prices Conagra about 30% below our fair value near $20. Analysts expect flat revenue growth and EPS below management's high end. Our fair value is well above the Street median, reflecting some optimism on turnaround progress.
Breaks if: adjusted EPS falls below $1.70 in FY26
Breaks if: operating margin falls below 11.0% in FY26
Breaks if: organic net sales decline worse than -1.0% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CAG represents a turnaround investment with a focus on stabilizing its performance. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to recent volatility in management and financial results.
The market appears to price in a low level of fragility, as the valuation is considered cheap compared to peers. However, there is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about significant improvements in performance.
Management has set clear targets for adjusted earnings per share, operating margins, and organic sales growth. However, recent financial performance has been weak, particularly in organic sales, which declined slightly, indicating challenges in achieving these goals.
The future performance of CAG hinges on several factors, including the potential impact of a weakening jobs report and any changes in guidance from management. Additionally, a reacceleration of inflation could provide a favorable environment for the company.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company cut its dividend, impacting investor confidence. It also faces challenges in achieving organic net sales growth for fiscal 2026. These issues threaten its financial stability and outlook.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, CAG's multi-year view is cautious, reflecting a mix of management execution challenges and market conditions. Not investment advice.
