Conagra Brands (CAG)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$14.47+2.05%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Conagra Brands’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.50 → 1.50 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EPS of $1.70 to $1.85 for fiscal 2026	Conagra aims to reach adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $1.85 in fiscal 2026.	Broken	adjusted EPS falls below $1.70 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating margin near 11.5% for fiscal 2026	The company targets an operating margin near 11.5%.	Broken	operating margin falls below 11.0% in FY26	Operating margin: 10.34% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=11.0%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 30, 202610.339381 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Aug 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e08d4dfb-f43f-42e3-81d1-1ce1dccea415. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2027 adjusted operating margin guidance between 10.0% and 10.5%. Reported operating margin was 10.3% in 2026-Q3, consistent with the guidance range. The trajectory is delivering on margin targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Organic net sales change between -1% and 1% for fiscal 2026	New product launches could boost organic sales growth.	Broken	organic net sales decline worse than -1.0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.50

$1.57 → $1.50 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$10.79B

$10.93B → $10.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.57	$10,934,441,790	16 / 15
2026-07-25	$1.57	$10,934,441,790	16 / 15
2026-07-26	$1.57	$10,934,441,790	16 / 15
2026-07-27	$1.57	$10,934,441,790	16 / 15
2026-07-28	$1.57	$10,934,441,790	16 / 15
2026-07-29	$1.55	$10,900,308,450	16 / 15
2026-07-30	$1.55	$10,900,308,450	16 / 15
2026-07-31	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-01	$1.55	$10,900,308,450	16 / 15
2026-08-02	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-03	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-04	$1.55	$10,900,308,450	16 / 15
2026-08-05	$1.55	$10,900,308,450	16 / 15
2026-08-06	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-07	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-08	$1.55	$10,900,308,450	16 / 15
2026-08-09	$1.55	$10,900,308,450	16 / 15
2026-08-10	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-11	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-12	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-13	$1.55	$10,900,308,450	16 / 15
2026-08-14	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-15	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-16	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-17	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-18	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-19	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-20	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-21	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-22	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-23	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-24	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-25	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-26	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-27	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-28	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-29	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-30	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-08-31	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-09-01	$1.50	$10,803,375,454	8 / 11
2026-09-02	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-03	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-04	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-05	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-06	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-07	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-08	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-09	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-10	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-11	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-12	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-13	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-14	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-15	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-16	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-17	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-18	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-19	$1.50	$10,805,958,787	8 / 11
2026-09-20	$1.50	$10,807,976,311	8 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.50	$10,807,976,311	8 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.50	$10,807,976,311	8 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.50	$10,807,976,311	8 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.50	$10,807,976,311	8 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.50	$10,807,976,311	8 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.50	$10,807,976,311	8 / 11
2026-09-27	$1.50	$10,807,976,311	8 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.50	$10,807,976,311	8 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.50	$10,811,725,056	8 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.50	$10,811,725,056	8 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.50	$10,790,039,803	8 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 12
2026-10-05	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 12
2026-10-06	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 12
2026-10-07	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 12
2026-10-08	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 12
2026-10-09	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 12
2026-10-10	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 12
2026-10-11	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 12
2026-10-12	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 12
2026-10-13	$1.50	$10,786,801,518	8 / 11
2026-10-14	$1.50	$10,786,798,180	8 / 11
2026-10-15	$1.50	$10,786,952,026	8 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	13	4
2026-06-01	2	12	5
2026-07-01	2	10	5
2026-08-01	2	10	5
2026-09-01	2	10	5
2026-10-01	2	10	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Evercore ISIOct 1 · prior Sep 29

$13.00 → $14.00+7.7%

Deutsche BankSep 18 · prior Jun 18

$12.00 → $13.00+8.3%

$0$7.70$15.40

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EPS of $1.70 to $1.85 for fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain operating margin near 11.5% for fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Organic net sales change between -1% and 1% for fiscal 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Conagra Brands outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story, as CAG is trying to stabilize its operations and improve its financial performance. The current thesis is cautious, given recent weak results and management's mixed execution on sales targets.

What's priced into Conagra Brands

The market appears to be pricing in a low level of fragility, suggesting that while CAG is seen as cheap compared to peers, expectations are still somewhat negative. The current valuation reflects a gap in expectations, indicating that the market anticipates challenges ahead.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, with management focused on achieving specific earnings and margin targets. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, which may hinder progress.

What Conagra Brands hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet its earnings and margin goals, as well as external factors like inflation and economic conditions. Any negative guidance or continued weakness in the jobs report could further impact sentiment.