Blackstone Inc. (BX)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$106.61-2.37%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Blackstone Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.48 → 7.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Assets Under Management grow to $1.304 trillion	Blackstone grows assets under management by 12% to $1.3 trillion.	Intact	AUM falls below $1.127 trillion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Total AUM grew from $1.11 trillion in 2024-Q3 to $1.35 trillion in 2026-Q2, and Fee-Earning AUM increased from $820 billion to $962 billion over the same period. Management consistently emphasized inflows and capital deployment, and the financials confirm delivering growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Capital returned to shareholders at $1.5 billion per quarter	The company returns $1.5 billion to shareholders each quarter.	Intact	Capital return falls below $1.5 billion per quarter	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Management declared quarterly dividends increasing from $0.86 in 2024-Q3 to $1.29 in 2026-Q2 and repurchased shares each quarter. Total capital returned was $1.7 billion in 2026-Q2 and $6.9 billion over the last twelve months. The trajectory matches management's stated commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Fee Related Earnings grow to $1.5 billion	Fee earnings rose 23% to $1.5 billion.	Intact	Fee Related Earnings fall below $1.3 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Fee Related Earnings increased from $1.2 billion in 2024-Q3 to $1.8 billion in 2026-Q2, and FRE per share rose from $0.96 to $1.43. Management consistently emphasized FRE growth, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Realized Performance Revenues grow 70% to $780 million	Performance revenues grew 70% year over year.	Improving	Performance revenues grow less than 0%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Net Accrued Performance Revenues increased from $6.3 billion in 2024-Q4 to $7.5 billion in 2026-Q2. Realized Performance Revenues grew 32% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasized investment performance and inflows driving growth, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.39

$7.43 → $7.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.10B

$18.56B → $18.10B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.43	$18,561,918,110	22 / 6
2026-07-25	$7.44	$18,574,729,810	22 / 7
2026-07-26	$7.44	$18,574,729,810	22 / 7
2026-07-27	$7.46	$18,595,195,420	22 / 7
2026-07-28	$7.46	$18,595,195,420	22 / 7
2026-07-29	$7.47	$18,622,128,970	22 / 6
2026-07-30	$7.47	$18,622,128,970	22 / 6
2026-07-31	$7.47	$18,622,128,970	22 / 6
2026-08-01	$7.47	$18,622,128,970	22 / 6
2026-08-02	$7.47	$18,622,128,970	22 / 6
2026-08-03	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-04	$7.49	$18,622,128,970	23 / 6
2026-08-05	$7.49	$18,622,128,970	23 / 6
2026-08-06	$7.49	$18,622,128,970	23 / 6
2026-08-07	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-08	$7.49	$18,622,128,970	23 / 6
2026-08-09	$7.49	$18,622,128,970	23 / 6
2026-08-10	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-11	$7.49	$18,622,128,970	23 / 6
2026-08-12	$7.49	$18,622,128,970	23 / 6
2026-08-13	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-14	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-15	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-16	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-17	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-18	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-19	$7.43	$18,193,576,456	16 / 6
2026-08-20	$7.45	$18,278,001,134	16 / 6
2026-08-21	$7.45	$18,278,001,134	16 / 6
2026-08-22	$7.45	$18,278,001,134	16 / 6
2026-08-23	$7.45	$18,278,001,134	16 / 6
2026-08-24	$7.45	$18,278,001,134	16 / 6
2026-08-25	$7.45	$18,278,001,134	16 / 6
2026-08-26	$7.45	$18,278,001,134	16 / 6
2026-08-27	$7.45	$18,278,001,134	16 / 6
2026-08-28	$7.45	$18,278,001,134	16 / 6
2026-08-29	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-08-30	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-08-31	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-01	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-02	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-03	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-04	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-05	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-06	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-07	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-08	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-09	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-10	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-11	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-12	$7.43	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-13	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-14	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-15	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-16	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-17	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-18	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-19	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-20	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-21	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-22	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-23	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-24	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-25	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-26	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-27	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-28	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-29	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-09-30	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-10-01	$7.48	$18,160,473,071	16 / 6
2026-10-02	$7.47	$18,079,963,401	16 / 7
2026-10-03	$7.46	$18,158,651,832	17 / 7
2026-10-04	$7.46	$18,158,651,832	17 / 7
2026-10-05	$7.44	$18,158,651,832	17 / 6
2026-10-06	$7.42	$18,158,651,832	17 / 6
2026-10-07	$7.42	$18,155,736,447	17 / 6
2026-10-08	$7.41	$18,155,736,447	17 / 6
2026-10-09	$7.41	$18,155,736,447	17 / 6
2026-10-10	$7.41	$18,155,736,447	17 / 6
2026-10-11	$7.41	$18,140,721,062	17 / 6
2026-10-12	$7.41	$18,140,721,062	17 / 6
2026-10-13	$7.41	$18,140,721,062	17 / 6
2026-10-14	$7.39	$18,098,166,970	17 / 6
2026-10-15	$7.39	$18,098,166,970	17 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	10
2026-06-01	13	10
2026-07-01	13	11
2026-08-01	12	11
2026-09-01	13	11
2026-10-01	13	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 8 · prior Jul 24

$128.00 → $124.00-3.1%

UBSSep 23

$122.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$70.40$140.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Assets Under Management grow to $1.304 trillionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Capital returned to shareholders at $1.5 billion per quarterRequired source inputs unavailable
Fee Related Earnings grow to $1.5 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Realized Performance Revenues grow 70% to $780 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Blackstone Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team and robust earnings quality. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance, but it is facing headwinds from the broader financial sector.

What's priced into Blackstone Inc.

The market appears to be pricing in a durable premium compared to peers, suggesting that expectations are slightly elevated. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that the current valuation reflects a justified outlook based on recent performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has consistently prioritized increasing realized performance revenues, enhancing assets under management, and maintaining fee-related earnings. Recent financial results show strong growth in these areas, but there is a near-term risk of missing estimates due to the high-miss-rate nature of the industry.

What Blackstone Inc. hinges on

Key factors include the potential for BX to cut guidance in the next earnings call, which could negatively impact sentiment. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like BLK, KKR, and APO will be crucial for maintaining momentum in the financial sector.