ANHEUSER BUSCH INBEV SA NV (BUD)

NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-10-16

$82.59+1.61%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ANHEUSER BUSCH INBEV SA NV’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.94 → 4.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow generation	Profit margins are expected to remain strong, supporting cash flow generation.	Intact	free cash flow falls below 9 billion USD	Free cash flow: $3.839B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11 billion USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20263,838,771,350 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Profit margin stability	A supporting condition in ANHEUSER BUSCH INBEV SA NV's published investment case. The stated target is >=15%.	Intact	profit margin falls below 13%	Net margin: 19.78% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202619.776365 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth for FY26	A primary condition in ANHEUSER BUSCH INBEV SA NV's published investment case. The stated target is >=65 billion USD.	Intact	revenue falls below 63 billion USD for FY26	Revenue: $31.927B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=65 billion USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202631,927,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.98

$4.93 → $4.98 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$67.47B

$67.43B → $67.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-27	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-08-28	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-08-29	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-08-30	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-08-31	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-01	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-02	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-03	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-04	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-05	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-06	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-07	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-08	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-09	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-10	$4.93	$67,431,924,235	9 / 16
2026-09-11	$4.93	$67,450,817,873	9 / 16
2026-09-12	$4.93	$67,479,136,054	9 / 16
2026-09-13	$4.93	$67,479,136,054	9 / 16
2026-09-14	$4.93	$67,479,136,054	9 / 16
2026-09-15	$4.94	$67,510,720,233	9 / 16
2026-09-16	$4.94	$67,510,744,014	9 / 16
2026-09-17	$4.94	$67,543,648,776	9 / 16
2026-09-18	$4.94	$67,543,648,776	9 / 16
2026-09-19	$4.94	$67,543,648,776	9 / 16
2026-09-20	$4.95	$67,559,206,613	9 / 16
2026-09-21	$4.95	$67,559,206,613	9 / 16
2026-09-22	$4.95	$67,559,206,613	9 / 16
2026-09-23	$4.95	$67,559,206,613	9 / 16
2026-09-24	$4.95	$67,559,206,613	9 / 16
2026-09-25	$4.99	$67,596,149,013	9 / 16
2026-09-26	$4.99	$67,596,144,252	9 / 16
2026-09-27	$4.99	$67,596,144,252	9 / 16
2026-09-28	$4.99	$67,596,144,252	9 / 16
2026-09-29	$4.98	$67,470,390,187	9 / 16
2026-09-30	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	9 / 16
2026-10-01	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	9 / 16
2026-10-02	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	9 / 16
2026-10-03	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	9 / 16
2026-10-04	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	9 / 16
2026-10-05	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	9 / 16
2026-10-06	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	9 / 16
2026-10-07	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16
2026-10-08	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16
2026-10-09	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16
2026-10-10	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16
2026-10-11	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16
2026-10-12	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16
2026-10-13	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16
2026-10-14	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16
2026-10-15	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16
2026-10-16	$4.98	$67,469,818,757	10 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	1
2026-06-01	10	2
2026-07-01	10	2
2026-08-01	10	2
2026-09-01	11	2
2026-10-01	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow generationFree cash flow: $3.839B
Profit margin stabilityNet margin: 19.78%
Revenue growth for FY26Revenue: $31.927B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ANHEUSER BUSCH INBEV SA NV outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a Consumer Staples company with low risk but currently faces headwinds. The thesis is still developing, with insufficient recent financial performance history to draw strong conclusions.

What's priced into ANHEUSER BUSCH INBEV SA NV

The market seems to have a low fragility expectation for BUD, indicating that it is not overly concerned about immediate risks. However, the muted price reaction suggests that investors are cautious given the recent performance of industry peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain stable in the near term, as the risk label has shifted from moderate to low. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.

What ANHEUSER BUSCH INBEV SA NV hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on macroeconomic factors, such as the jobs report and inflation trends. Additionally, performance from sector leaders like DEO, STZ, and TAP will be crucial for BUD's momentum.