Bitgo Holdings Inc (BTGO)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$5.88-9.40%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Bitgo Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage legal and regulatory challenges without material harm	A primary condition in Bitgo Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No material legal or regulatory penalties or restrictions in 2026.	Intact	Material legal penalties or regulatory restrictions announced in 2026	0 material penalties vs 0 target News shows acquisitions and executive changes, but no legal or regulatory penalties or restrictions announced. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful launch and adoption of modular infrastructure and bank stablecoin partnerships	A supporting condition in Bitgo Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Modular infrastructure launched and major bank stablecoin partnerships active by mid-2026.	Intact	No meaningful adoption of new products or partnerships by mid-2026	Qualitative: Active bank stablecoin partnerships (Spark) & modular infra expansion (OKX) confirmed BitGo expanded off-exchange settlement with OKX and secured Spark for bank stablecoin launches, confirming active adoption. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue grows to at least $3.77 billion in Q1 2026	A primary condition in Bitgo Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.77 billion.	Improving	Total revenue falls below $3.77 billion in Q1 2026	Revenue: $4.329B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.77 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 12, 20264,329,395,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d4bdd2ee-af0e-4eb0-b70a-e8e149fb6dbe. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased from $3.8 billion in 2026-Q1 to $4.3 billion in 2026-Q2 (+14.7%). Number of clients grew from 5,569 to 5,833 in the same period. Management is delivering on scaling the business and growing revenue. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Repurchase up to $50 million of shares under approved program	The company has a $50 million share buyback plan.	Intact	Buyback program canceled or no shares repurchased by end 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.26B

$0.29B → $0.26B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$292,822,810	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$292,822,810	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$292,822,810	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$292,822,810	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$292,822,810	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$292,822,810	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,608,078,855	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$22,227,484,380	4 / 8
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,608,078,855	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$22,182,396,880	4 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,608,078,855	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,608,078,855	4 / 5
2026-08-15	$0.33	$1,608,078,855	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$0.33	$1,608,078,855	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$0.33	$1,608,078,855	5 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,608,078,855	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,608,078,855	4 / 5
2026-08-20	$0.11	$256,573,486	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$0.11	$256,573,486	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$0.11	$256,531,819	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$0.11	$256,531,819	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$0.11	$256,531,819	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$0.11	$1,652,178,976	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$0.11	$256,813,236	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$0.11	$256,813,236	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$0.11	$256,813,236	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$0.11	$252,466,064	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$0.11	$252,466,064	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$0.11	$252,466,064	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$0.11	$255,013,236	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$0.11	$255,013,236	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$0.11	$255,013,236	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$0.12	$255,013,236	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$0.12	$255,013,236	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$0.12	$255,013,236	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$0.12	$255,013,236	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$0.12	$255,013,236	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$0.12	$255,013,236	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$0.12	$255,498,486	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$0.12	$255,498,486	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$0.12	$255,498,486	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$0.12	$255,498,486	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$0.12	$255,498,486	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$0.12	$260,516,531	5 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$260,516,531	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$260,516,531	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$261,089,712	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$261,089,712	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$261,089,712	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$261,089,712	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$261,089,712	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$261,089,712	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$261,089,712	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$262,707,206	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	2
2026-06-01	10	2
2026-07-01	10	2
2026-08-01	10	2
2026-09-01	10	2
2026-10-01	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Total revenue grows to at least $3.77 billion in Q1 2026Revenue: $4.329B
Repurchase up to $50 million of shares under approved programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-74.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Bitgo Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround situation. The company is focused on scaling its business and improving financial performance, but recent results have been weak, leading to a cautious outlook.

What's priced into Bitgo Holdings Inc

The market appears to have priced in a significant expectations gap, indicating that investors may be skeptical about BTGO's ability to meet future performance targets. The current valuation suggests that there are concerns about the company's fundamentals relative to its peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is making progress in driving revenue growth, with a notable increase in clients and revenue. However, the operating income remains a challenge, as losses are still significant despite some improvement.

What Bitgo Holdings Inc hinges on

The future performance of BTGO hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain or improve guidance, the performance of sector leaders, and the impact of interest rate changes. Any negative shifts in these areas could lead to further challenges.