Brown & Brown (BRO)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$69.40+2.09%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Brown & Brown’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.84 → 4.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase Adjusted Diluted Net Income Per Share	Earnings per share improved 7.8% to $1.39.	Broken	EPS growth falls below 5% in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Adjusted diluted net income per share increased from $1.03 in 2025-Q2 to $1.07 in 2026-Q2 and from $1.29 in 2025-Q1 to $1.39 in 2026-Q1. Management consistently highlights earnings growth and momentum, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain EBITDAC Margin - Adjusted near 38.5%	A primary condition in Brown & Brown's published investment case. The stated target is >=38.5% EBITDAC Margin - Adjusted.	Under Pressure	EBITDAC Margin falls below 37% in 2026-Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. EBITDAC Margin - Adjusted was 35.7% in 2026-Q2, slightly down from 36.7% in 2025-Q2, and 38.5% in 2026-Q1, slightly up from 38.1% in 2025-Q1. Management emphasizes margin maintenance and expansion, with mixed but generally stable delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Organic Revenue with Contingents grows steadily	A primary condition in Brown & Brown's published investment case. The stated target is >=2% growth in Organic Revenue with Contingents.	Intact	Organic Revenue growth falls below 2% in 2026-Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Organic Revenue with Contingents grew 0.7% in 2026-Q2 and 2.2% in 2026-Q1, with prior quarters showing mixed but generally positive growth trends. Management consistently emphasizes this growth metric, and the trajectory shows mixed delivery with modest recent growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.86

$4.84 → $4.86 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.29B

$7.38B → $7.29B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.84	$7,382,343,040	18 / 13
2026-07-25	$4.87	$7,387,821,215	11 / 10
2026-07-26	$4.84	$7,382,343,040	18 / 13
2026-07-27	$4.84	$7,382,343,040	18 / 13
2026-07-28	$4.87	$7,387,818,836	11 / 10
2026-07-29	$4.83	$7,382,359,350	18 / 13
2026-07-30	$4.83	$7,382,359,350	18 / 13
2026-07-31	$4.81	$7,317,640,490	18 / 13
2026-08-01	$4.84	$7,308,279,595	11 / 10
2026-08-02	$4.82	$7,308,294,740	19 / 14
2026-08-03	$4.82	$7,308,294,740	19 / 14
2026-08-04	$4.82	$7,308,294,740	19 / 14
2026-08-05	$4.82	$7,292,337,890	19 / 14
2026-08-06	$4.82	$7,292,337,890	19 / 14
2026-08-07	$4.84	$7,308,279,595	12 / 11
2026-08-08	$4.82	$7,292,337,890	19 / 14
2026-08-09	$4.82	$7,292,337,890	19 / 14
2026-08-10	$4.82	$7,292,337,890	19 / 14
2026-08-11	$4.84	$7,308,279,595	12 / 11
2026-08-12	$4.82	$7,292,337,890	19 / 14
2026-08-13	$4.82	$7,292,337,890	19 / 14
2026-08-14	$4.84	$7,308,279,595	12 / 11
2026-08-15	$4.84	$7,308,279,595	12 / 11
2026-08-16	$4.84	$7,308,279,595	12 / 11
2026-08-17	$4.84	$7,308,279,595	12 / 11
2026-08-18	$4.84	$7,308,279,595	12 / 11
2026-08-19	$4.84	$7,308,279,595	12 / 11
2026-08-20	$4.84	$7,292,323,081	12 / 11
2026-08-21	$4.84	$7,292,323,081	12 / 11
2026-08-22	$4.84	$7,292,323,081	12 / 11
2026-08-23	$4.84	$7,292,323,081	12 / 11
2026-08-24	$4.84	$7,292,323,081	12 / 11
2026-08-25	$4.84	$7,292,323,081	12 / 11
2026-08-26	$4.84	$7,292,323,081	12 / 11
2026-08-27	$4.84	$7,292,323,081	12 / 11
2026-08-28	$4.84	$7,292,323,081	12 / 11
2026-08-29	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-08-30	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-08-31	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-01	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-02	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-03	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-04	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-05	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-06	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-07	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-08	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-09	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-10	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-11	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-12	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-13	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-14	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-15	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-16	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-17	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-18	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-19	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-20	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-21	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-22	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-23	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-24	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-25	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-26	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-27	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-28	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-29	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-09-30	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-10-01	$4.84	$7,290,831,652	12 / 11
2026-10-02	$4.83	$7,286,195,344	12 / 11
2026-10-03	$4.83	$7,286,195,344	12 / 11
2026-10-04	$4.83	$7,286,195,344	12 / 11
2026-10-05	$4.83	$7,286,195,344	12 / 11
2026-10-06	$4.83	$7,286,195,344	12 / 11
2026-10-07	$4.84	$7,281,549,778	12 / 11
2026-10-08	$4.85	$7,284,713,126	12 / 11
2026-10-09	$4.85	$7,284,713,126	12 / 11
2026-10-10	$4.85	$7,284,713,126	12 / 11
2026-10-11	$4.85	$7,284,713,126	13 / 11
2026-10-12	$4.85	$7,284,713,126	13 / 11
2026-10-13	$4.86	$7,296,606,056	13 / 11
2026-10-14	$4.86	$7,292,418,556	13 / 11
2026-10-15	$4.86	$7,292,421,331	13 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	15	0
2026-06-01	5	14	0
2026-07-01	5	14	1
2026-08-01	4	14	1
2026-09-01	4	14	1
2026-10-01	7	14	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerOct 7

$73.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$40.15$80.30

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase Adjusted Diluted Net Income Per SharePublished status: Broken
Maintain EBITDAC Margin - Adjusted near 38.5%Published status: Under Pressure
Organic Revenue with Contingents grows steadilyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Brown & Brown outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a moderate risk profile with a focus on financial performance. The current thesis state is intact, but recent events have introduced some uncertainty.

What's priced into Brown & Brown

The market appears to be pricing in a justified valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. However, there is an expectations gap indicating that some negative developments may already be considered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown mixed results in increasing organic revenue, while adjusted diluted net income per share is on track. The EBITDAC margin has been stable but slightly declining, suggesting cautious management execution.

What Brown & Brown hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to navigate recent challenges, including a CEO transition and potential earnings guidance cuts. Additionally, sector performance relative to interest rates will be crucial for BRO's trajectory.