THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (BNS)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-16

$91.60+0.53%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.61 → 9.41 EPS · FY ending Oct 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 16, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
earnings per share growth to at least $8.29 in FY26	Scotiabank grows earnings steadily with EPS around $8.29 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $8.29 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
stable interest rates and manageable inflation to support banking margins	A supporting condition in THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA's published investment case. The stated target is interest rates flat; inflation near 4.25% YoY.	Intact	interest rates rise sharply or inflation exceeds 6% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
revenue growth to about $39.6 billion in FY26	It expands revenue to about $39.6 billion.	Intact	revenue falls below $39 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
successful integration of AI partnerships to enhance competitiveness	A supporting condition in THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA's published investment case. The stated target is maintain or expand AI partnership benefits.	Intact	partnerships fail to deliver competitive advantage or are discontinued	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-10-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.41

$9.30 → $9.41 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$42.13B

Unavailable → $42.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.30	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-25	$9.30	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-26	$9.30	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-27	$9.31	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-28	$9.32	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-29	$9.30	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-30	$9.28	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-07-31	$9.27	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-01	$9.27	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-02	$9.33	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-03	$9.32	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-04	$9.32	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-05	$9.32	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-06	$9.32	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-07	$9.30	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-08	$9.30	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-09	$9.30	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-10	$9.29	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-11	$9.28	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-12	$9.29	$41,284,442,300	12 / 6
2026-08-13	$9.29	$41,284,442,300	12 / 6
2026-08-14	$9.29	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-15	$9.29	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-16	$9.29	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-17	$9.29	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-18	$9.29	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-19	$9.29	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-20	$9.37	$42,043,217,511	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$9.43	$42,306,243,340	7 / 5
2026-08-22	$9.45	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-23	$9.46	$42,437,423,226	7 / 5
2026-08-24	$9.48	$42,501,811,041	7 / 5
2026-08-25	$9.45	$42,297,892,738	7 / 5
2026-08-26	$9.60	$42,896,254,402	8 / 5
2026-08-27	$9.60	$42,896,254,402	8 / 5
2026-08-28	$9.60	$42,896,254,402	8 / 5
2026-08-29	$9.61	$42,927,403,241	8 / 6
2026-08-30	$9.62	$43,111,058,842	8 / 6
2026-08-31	$9.59	$42,955,682,140	8 / 6
2026-09-01	$9.62	$43,111,058,842	8 / 6
2026-09-02	$9.62	$43,111,058,842	8 / 6
2026-09-03	$9.59	$42,961,658,167	8 / 6
2026-09-04	$9.65	$43,173,319,319	8 / 6
2026-09-05	$9.65	$43,173,319,319	8 / 6
2026-09-06	$9.68	$43,310,852,053	8 / 6
2026-09-07	$9.68	$43,310,852,053	8 / 6
2026-09-08	$9.65	$43,185,278,687	8 / 6
2026-09-09	$9.67	$43,263,014,580	8 / 6
2026-09-10	$9.69	$43,352,709,842	8 / 6
2026-09-11	$9.68	$43,304,872,369	8 / 6
2026-09-12	$9.66	$43,215,177,108	8 / 6
2026-09-13	$9.66	$43,215,177,108	8 / 6
2026-09-14	$9.66	$43,215,177,108	8 / 6
2026-09-15	$9.63	$43,083,624,057	8 / 6
2026-09-16	$9.61	$42,993,928,795	8 / 6
2026-09-17	$9.55	$42,718,863,326	8 / 6
2026-09-18	$9.55	$42,718,863,326	8 / 6
2026-09-19	$9.54	$42,712,883,642	8 / 6
2026-09-20	$9.54	$42,712,883,642	8 / 6
2026-09-21	$9.54	$42,712,883,642	8 / 6
2026-09-22	$9.55	$42,736,802,378	8 / 6
2026-09-23	$9.55	$42,736,802,378	8 / 6
2026-09-24	$9.50	$42,509,574,382	8 / 6
2026-09-25	$9.47	$42,372,041,647	8 / 6
2026-09-26	$9.44	$42,258,427,649	8 / 6
2026-09-27	$9.44	$42,258,427,649	8 / 6
2026-09-28	$9.44	$42,258,427,649	8 / 6
2026-09-29	$9.44	$42,252,447,965	8 / 6
2026-09-30	$9.42	$42,162,752,703	8 / 6
2026-10-01	$9.41	$42,120,894,914	8 / 6
2026-10-02	$9.38	$41,995,321,548	8 / 6
2026-10-03	$9.39	$42,025,219,968	8 / 6
2026-10-04	$9.39	$42,025,219,968	8 / 6
2026-10-05	$9.39	$42,025,219,968	8 / 6
2026-10-06	$9.37	$41,947,484,075	8 / 6
2026-10-07	$9.37	$41,929,545,023	8 / 6
2026-10-08	$9.40	$42,067,077,757	8 / 6
2026-10-09	$9.37	$41,917,585,654	8 / 6
2026-10-10	$9.39	$42,007,280,916	8 / 6
2026-10-11	$9.39	$42,007,280,916	8 / 6
2026-10-12	$9.39	$42,007,280,916	8 / 6
2026-10-13	$9.37	$41,917,585,654	8 / 6
2026-10-14	$9.35	$41,845,829,445	8 / 6
2026-10-15	$9.39	$42,037,179,337	8 / 6
2026-10-16	$9.41	$42,126,874,598	8 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	10	2
2026-06-01	2	10	2
2026-07-01	3	10	2
2026-08-01	6	9	1
2026-09-01	5	8	1
2026-10-01	5	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

earnings per share growth to at least $8.29 in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
stable interest rates and manageable inflation to support banking marginsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
revenue growth to about $39.6 billion in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
successful integration of AI partnerships to enhance competitivenessQualitative condition

Next proof point

Dec 1, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BNS represents a financial investment with moderate risk. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history, leading to muted price reactions.

What's priced into THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA

The market does not appear to be pricing in significant fragility, as no fragility gates have been triggered. The valuation model confidence is high, suggesting that expectations are stable but could shift based on sector performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may face challenges in the near term, with a low probability of missing expectations. However, recent history shows a tendency for misses, indicating potential volatility in performance.

What THE BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JPM, BAC, and HSBC. Their ability to beat earnings and guide higher could provide momentum for BNS, while any misses could negatively impact its trajectory.