BIONANO GENOMICS INC (BNGO)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.13-4.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BIONANO GENOMICS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$8.2M–$8.6M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	9.17M
EPS	—	-0.39
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$31M–$33M	32.47M
EPS	—	-2.14
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	43.3M
EPS	—	-0.97

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve operating income from negative $7.9 million in Q1 2026	A primary condition in BIONANO GENOMICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows from -$7.9 million.	Improving	Operating loss worsens or stays below -$7.9 million	Operating income: $-7.218M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$7.9 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026-7,218,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b28e12c0-39b8-4663-aa35-e2cc507f09a5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Operating expenses increased slightly by 2% to $11.5 million in 2026-Q2, but adjusted operating expenses decreased by 2% to $8.7 million. Management shows mixed progress on cost management with some improvement in adjusted expenses. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve quarterly revenue of $7.5-$7.8 million in Q2 2026	A supporting condition in BIONANO GENOMICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is $7.5-$7.8 million.	Intact	Q2 2026 revenue falls below $7.5 million	Revenue: $8.171M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $7.5-$7.8 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 10, 20268,171,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b28e12c0-39b8-4663-aa35-e2cc507f09a5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve full year 2026 revenue of $30-$33 million	A primary condition in BIONANO GENOMICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is $30-$33 million.	Intact	Full year 2026 revenue falls below $30 million	Revenue: $8.171M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $30-$33 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20268,171,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b28e12c0-39b8-4663-aa35-e2cc507f09a5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	0	0
2026-06-01	2	0	0
2026-07-01	2	0	0
2026-08-01	2	0	0
2026-09-01	2	0	0
2026-10-01	2	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve operating income from negative $7.9 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $-7.218M
Achieve quarterly revenue of $7.5-$7.8 million in Q2 2026Revenue: $8.171M
Achieve full year 2026 revenue of $30-$33 millionRevenue: $8.171M

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BIONANO GENOMICS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business, not an established earnings compounder, because it remains loss-making. The multi-year view is watchful: revenue growth and debt retirement are constructive, while recent performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into BIONANO GENOMICS INC

The evidence describes BNGO as cheap versus peers, with a small premium also recorded and low confidence in the valuation model. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in tag is justified and no fragility gates have fired. This points to limited evidence that expectations are unusually fragile, but the valuation read is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has grown year over year and management reiterated its 2026 revenue guidance, which it is currently on track to meet. The secured convertible debt was fully retired by the second quarter, while the new Chief Scientific Officer has no financial impact established yet. Risk remains high because the company is loss-making, and the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What BIONANO GENOMICS INC hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth continuing and management delivering its guidance while strengthening the business. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be negative signals; continued strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum. These forward scenarios are uncertain, and recent performance remains below the industry cohort.