Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
$127.83-0.62%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth at or above 7% in FY2027: FY2026 rev -7.0% vs 7% target.
Badger Meter aims to grow revenue by at least 7% next year despite recent declines. The company targets gross margins near 40% by 2030, showing focus on improving profit. Cash flow remains solid with operating cash around $34M in the latest quarter. These goals support a recovery from recent setbacks.
Revenue fell 9% year-over-year in Q1 2026 and earnings missed estimates by 24%. Legal issues and slowing sales growth threaten the outlook. Margin expansion efforts have not yet shown results, raising doubts about management execution.
The market expects about 7% revenue growth over the next year and prices the stock slightly below our estimate of intrinsic value. Our view aligns with consensus revenue growth but is cautious on margin and legal risks.
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 38% on a sustained basis
Breaks if: operating cash flow falls below $30M per quarter
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY2027
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a stable player in the tech sector with a focus on long-term revenue growth. The current thesis state is mixed, as management has set ambitious goals but has faced challenges in execution and revenue performance recently.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral outlook for BMI, with some expectations of fragility due to weak execution quality. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, suggesting that the market does not fully reflect the potential for improvement.
Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results in the near term, as management continues to emphasize revenue growth and cost management despite recent declines in revenue and cash flow. The company's recent earnings beat may provide some support, but the trend of missing estimates raises caution.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to meet guidance, potential rate cuts from the Fed, and performance of sector bellwethers that could influence market sentiment. A cut in guidance could lead to negative sentiment, while positive momentum in the sector could provide a tailwind.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on achieving high single-digit sales growth over a forward five-year time horizon.
Overall, BMI's performance and strategic focus suggest a cautious but stable outlook for the next 1-3 years. Not investment advice.