Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI)

NYSEInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$151.24+1.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Badger Meter, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.92 → 4.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	240.94M
EPS	—	1.238
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	228.53M
EPS	—	1.085
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	901.39M
EPS	—	4.431
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	973.13M
EPS	—	4.936

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin near 40.5% by Q3 2030	The company targets gross margins near 40% by 2030, showing focus on improving profit.	Intact	gross margin falls below 38% on a sustained basis	Gross margin: 41.9% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~40.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 23, 202641.896176 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6bec500c-ac47-4503-bfa7-f8a6ad9ea485. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating cash flow at or above $34M per quarter	Cash flow remains solid with operating cash around $34M in the latest quarter.	Broken	operating cash flow falls below $30M per quarter	Cash from operations: $26.612M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $34M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202626,612,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 7% in FY2027	A primary condition in Badger Meter, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY2027	Revenue growth: 0.12% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 23, 20260.12179 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6bec500c-ac47-4503-bfa7-f8a6ad9ea485. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.94

$5.10 → $4.94 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.97B

$0.99B → $0.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.10	$993,744,090	9 / 8
2026-07-25	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-07-26	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-07-27	$4.84	$984,183,889	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-07-29	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-07-30	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-07-31	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-08-01	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-08-02	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-08-03	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-08-04	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-08-05	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-08-06	$4.94	$988,379,360	10 / 9
2026-08-07	$4.83	$984,206,111	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$4.83	$984,206,111	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$4.94	$988,379,360	11 / 9
2026-08-10	$4.94	$988,379,360	11 / 9
2026-08-11	$4.83	$984,206,111	8 / 8
2026-08-12	$4.94	$988,379,360	11 / 9
2026-08-13	$4.94	$988,379,360	11 / 9
2026-08-14	$4.83	$984,206,111	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$4.83	$984,206,111	9 / 8
2026-08-16	$4.83	$984,206,111	9 / 8
2026-08-17	$4.83	$984,206,111	9 / 8
2026-08-18	$4.83	$984,206,111	9 / 8
2026-08-19	$4.83	$984,206,111	9 / 8
2026-08-20	$4.84	$984,206,111	9 / 8
2026-08-21	$4.84	$984,206,111	9 / 8
2026-08-22	$4.86	$985,550,714	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$4.86	$985,550,714	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$4.86	$985,550,714	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$4.86	$985,550,714	8 / 7
2026-08-26	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$4.86	$985,556,717	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$4.86	$985,584,874	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$4.86	$985,584,874	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$4.86	$985,584,874	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$4.86	$985,584,874	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$4.86	$985,584,874	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$4.86	$985,584,874	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$4.86	$985,584,874	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$4.86	$985,584,874	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-25	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-28	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-29	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-01	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-03	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-04	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-05	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-06	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-07	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-08	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-09	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-10	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-11	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$4.92	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$4.91	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$4.91	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-16	$4.91	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-17	$4.91	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-18	$4.91	$978,511,765	7 / 6
2026-10-19	$4.91	$978,386,765	7 / 6
2026-10-20	$4.91	$978,386,765	7 / 6
2026-10-21	$4.91	$978,403,038	7 / 6
2026-10-22	$4.91	$978,403,038	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$4.94	$972,608,250	7 / 6
2026-10-24	$4.94	$973,133,250	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	5	1
2026-06-01	7	5	1
2026-07-01	7	6	1
2026-08-01	7	5	1
2026-09-01	8	4	1
2026-10-01	8	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 23 · prior Oct 19

$150.00 → $168.00+12.0%

Seaport GlobalOct 23 · prior Jul 23

$160.00 → $175.00+9.4%

Robert W. BairdOct 23 · prior Jul 23

$167.00 → $175.00+4.8%

RBC CapitalOct 23 · prior Jul 23

$162.00 → $187.00+15.4%

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Jul 28

$112.00 → $111.00-0.9%

$0$102.85$205.70

4 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin near 40.5% by Q3 2030Gross margin: 41.9%
Operating cash flow at or above $34M per quarterPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth at or above 7% in FY2027Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Badger Meter, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BMI is a quality-oriented business with a durable premium, but its current setup is not a clean growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, while recent results have shifted the signal from mildly favorable to mixed and leave execution as a key concern.

What's priced into Badger Meter, Inc.

BMI is valued at a 1.25-times premium versus peers, and the valuation is tagged as stretched, though that tag recently eased. The expectations gap is modest, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between expectations and results; the premium still assumes durable business quality despite fragile earnings quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results are uneven: Q3 sales were modestly above the prior-year quarter, but management still expects full-year revenue excluding acquisitions to be flattish versus 2025. Q3 operating margin improved to 20.2% and base SEA expenses declined year over year, although operating earnings were lower year over year in Q1 and Q2. The next print carries elevated risk, with a guidance cut a meaningful negative scenario.

What Badger Meter, Inc. hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on turning the stated high-single-digit revenue growth ambition into sustained results, while keeping costs and margins under control. BlueEdge and beyond-the-meter offerings need to support utility water sales as project pacing remains uneven. Near term, guidance, rate cuts, and earnings trends at sector peers are the main swing factors.