Builders FirstSource (BLDR)

NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$54.65+1.81%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Builders FirstSource’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-7.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.45 → 4.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain gross margin between 27.5% and 29% in 2026	A primary condition in Builders FirstSource's published investment case. The stated target is 27.5% to 29% gross margin.	Under Pressure	gross margin falls below 27.5% in FY26	Gross margin: 28.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 27.5% to 29% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202628.136531 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dee84614-9b7e-4ccd-88d9-ef21a625e8eb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management targets gross profit margin of 27.5%-28.5% for 2026, down from prior guidance of up to 30%. Actual gross margin declined from 30.4% in 2025-Q4 to 28.1% in 2026-Q2, reflecting market headwinds. The trajectory shows margin compression consistent with management's updated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stabilize leadership and execution risks	A supporting condition in Builders FirstSource's published investment case. The stated target is No further major leadership disruptions in next 4 quarters.	Under Pressure	Additional key leadership departures or governance issues arise	3 leadership departures vs 0 target COO retirement, Director resignation, and President separation events recorded between May and August 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 2026 revenue target of $14.6-$15.6 billion	A primary condition in Builders FirstSource's published investment case. The stated target is >= $14.6 billion total revenue.	Broken	annual revenue falls below $14.6 billion in FY26	Revenue: $3.863B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $14.6 billion total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20263,862,548,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dee84614-9b7e-4ccd-88d9-ef21a625e8eb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management guided 2026 net sales to $14.0B-$14.8B in 2026-Q2, down from prior guidance of $14.8B-$15.8B in 2025-Q4, reflecting ongoing housing market weakness. Actual quarterly revenue declined 8.8% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 to $3.9B. The trajectory shows management adjusting expectations downward but maintaining focus on achieving a defined revenue range. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Execute $500 million share repurchase program	A $500 million share buyback supports shareholder value.	Intact	buyback program halted or materially delayed in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board authorized a $500 million share repurchase program in 2025-Q4 and reaffirmed it through 2026-Q2. Since August 2021, the Company repurchased 102.6 million shares at a total cost of $8.3 billion. The repurchase authorization remains active with $500 million available, showing ongoing disciplined capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.12

$5.98 → $4.12 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.66B

$15.61B → $14.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.98	$15,607,593,960	20 / 22
2026-07-25	$5.96	$15,577,689,780	20 / 22
2026-07-26	$5.96	$15,577,689,780	20 / 22
2026-07-27	$5.96	$15,577,689,780	20 / 22
2026-07-28	$5.96	$15,577,689,780	20 / 22
2026-07-29	$5.94	$15,571,585,230	20 / 22
2026-07-30	$5.94	$15,571,585,230	20 / 22
2026-07-31	$5.79	$15,456,513,100	18 / 21
2026-08-01	$5.79	$15,456,513,100	18 / 21
2026-08-02	$4.73	$15,045,230,372	11 / 16
2026-08-03	$4.60	$14,970,583,810	20 / 22
2026-08-04	$4.60	$14,970,583,810	20 / 22
2026-08-05	$4.55	$14,917,174,720	20 / 22
2026-08-06	$4.55	$14,917,174,720	20 / 22
2026-08-07	$4.73	$15,045,230,372	11 / 16
2026-08-08	$4.47	$14,874,015,630	20 / 22
2026-08-09	$4.47	$14,874,015,630	20 / 22
2026-08-10	$4.47	$14,874,015,630	20 / 22
2026-08-11	$4.47	$14,874,015,630	20 / 22
2026-08-12	$4.47	$14,874,015,630	20 / 22
2026-08-13	$4.47	$14,874,015,630	20 / 22
2026-08-14	$4.73	$15,045,230,372	11 / 16
2026-08-15	$4.73	$15,045,230,372	11 / 16
2026-08-16	$4.73	$15,045,230,372	11 / 16
2026-08-17	$4.73	$15,045,230,372	11 / 16
2026-08-18	$4.73	$15,045,230,372	11 / 16
2026-08-19	$4.73	$15,045,230,372	11 / 16
2026-08-20	$4.49	$14,910,057,679	11 / 16
2026-08-21	$4.49	$14,910,057,679	11 / 16
2026-08-22	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 16
2026-08-23	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-08-24	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-08-25	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-08-26	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-08-27	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-08-28	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-08-29	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-08-30	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-08-31	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-01	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-02	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-03	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-04	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-05	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-06	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-07	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-08	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-09	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-10	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-11	$4.49	$14,927,005,275	11 / 17
2026-09-12	$4.47	$14,926,838,609	11 / 17
2026-09-13	$4.45	$14,926,838,609	11 / 17
2026-09-14	$4.45	$14,926,838,609	11 / 17
2026-09-15	$4.45	$14,926,838,609	11 / 17
2026-09-16	$4.45	$14,926,838,609	12 / 17
2026-09-17	$4.45	$14,926,837,923	12 / 17
2026-09-18	$4.45	$14,926,837,923	12 / 17
2026-09-19	$4.45	$14,926,837,923	12 / 17
2026-09-20	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-21	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-22	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-23	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-24	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-25	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-26	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-27	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-28	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-29	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-09-30	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-10-01	$4.45	$14,926,835,157	12 / 17
2026-10-02	$4.39	$14,909,061,990	12 / 17
2026-10-03	$4.39	$14,909,061,990	12 / 17
2026-10-04	$4.39	$14,909,061,990	12 / 17
2026-10-05	$4.39	$14,909,061,990	12 / 17
2026-10-06	$4.45	$14,909,061,990	12 / 17
2026-10-07	$4.41	$14,879,687,350	12 / 17
2026-10-08	$4.41	$14,858,643,350	12 / 17
2026-10-09	$4.34	$14,764,103,350	12 / 17
2026-10-10	$4.34	$14,764,103,350	12 / 17
2026-10-11	$4.34	$14,764,103,350	12 / 17
2026-10-12	$4.34	$14,764,103,350	12 / 17
2026-10-13	$4.25	$14,726,103,110	12 / 17
2026-10-14	$4.24	$14,708,783,110	12 / 17
2026-10-15	$4.12	$14,664,085,288	12 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	10	1
2026-06-01	11	10	1
2026-07-01	11	10	1
2026-08-01	11	11	1
2026-09-01	11	11	1
2026-10-01	11	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 8 · prior May 1

$115.00 → $70.00-39.1%

RBC CapitalOct 7

$62.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 1 · prior Jul 31

$88.00 → $85.00-3.4%

Stifel NicolausSep 18 · prior Jul 23

$70.00 → $65.00-7.1%

$0$63.25$126.50

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain gross margin between 27.5% and 29% in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Stabilize leadership and execution risksPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve 2026 revenue target of $14.6-$15.6 billionPublished status: Broken
Execute $500 million share repurchase programRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Builders FirstSource outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a cyclical play in the building materials sector. The current thesis state is cautious due to recent earnings misses and ongoing challenges in the housing market.

What's priced into Builders FirstSource

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, suggesting that expectations are somewhat justified. BLDR is considered cheap compared to its peers, but it faces a negative expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on achieving its revenue target, but recent financial performance has been neutral with a year-over-year revenue decline. The company is also on track to maintain its gross margin target despite market pressures.

What Builders FirstSource hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, MAS, and CSL. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for BLDR. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could lead to further challenges.