BARCLAYS PLC (BCS)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-16

$22.79-0.09%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BARCLAYS PLC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Market share and partnerships	The company is gaining market share and forming partnerships that support growth.	Intact	Loss of key partnerships or market share declines	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Earnings per share (EPS)	It expects about $31 billion in revenue this year and $3.4 in earnings per share next year.	Broken	EPS falls below $3.4 in FY27	Diluted EPS: GBP 0.64 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.4. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 28, 20260.64 GBP/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Barclays' total revenue	A primary condition in BARCLAYS PLC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $31 billion.	Broken	revenue falls below $31 billion in FY26	Revenue: GBP 18.127B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $31 billion. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 28, 202618,127,000,000 GBP · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$43.61B

$32.65B → $43.61B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$32,653,005,340	2 / 16
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$32,653,005,340	2 / 16
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$32,653,005,340	2 / 16
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$32,653,005,340	2 / 16
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$32,653,005,340	2 / 16
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$32,653,005,340	2 / 16
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$32,653,005,340	2 / 16
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$32,897,991,700	2 / 16
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$32,897,991,700	2 / 16
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$43,783,770,685	3 / 9
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$32,897,991,700	2 / 16
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$32,897,991,700	2 / 16
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$32,919,231,379	2 / 16
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$32,919,231,379	2 / 16
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$43,783,770,685	3 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$32,919,231,379	2 / 16
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$32,919,231,379	2 / 16
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$32,919,231,379	2 / 16
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$32,919,231,379	2 / 16
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$32,919,231,379	2 / 16
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$32,919,231,379	2 / 16
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$43,783,770,685	3 / 9
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$43,783,770,685	3 / 9
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$43,783,770,685	3 / 9
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$43,783,770,685	3 / 9
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$43,783,770,685	3 / 9
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$43,783,770,685	3 / 9
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$43,783,770,685	3 / 9
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$43,903,509,636	3 / 9
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	3 / 9
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$44,009,954,356	2 / 9
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$44,107,746,481	2 / 9
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$44,111,044,860	2 / 9
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$44,111,044,860	2 / 9
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$44,111,044,860	2 / 9
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$44,111,044,860	2 / 9
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$44,111,044,860	2 / 9
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$44,111,044,860	2 / 9
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$44,111,044,860	2 / 9
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$44,125,829,452	2 / 9
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$44,125,829,452	2 / 9
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$44,125,829,452	2 / 9
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$44,125,829,452	2 / 9
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$44,125,829,452	2 / 9
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$44,167,243,936	2 / 9
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$44,168,310,805	2 / 9
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$44,168,310,805	2 / 9
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$44,124,056,280	2 / 9
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$44,019,661,317	2 / 9
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$44,019,661,317	2 / 9
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$44,019,661,317	2 / 9
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$44,019,661,317	2 / 9
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$43,966,644,079	2 / 9
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$43,966,644,079	2 / 9
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$43,966,644,079	2 / 9
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$43,836,837,258	2 / 9
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$43,836,837,258	2 / 9
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$43,836,837,258	2 / 9
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$43,798,540,779	2 / 9
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$43,738,521,301	2 / 9
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$43,730,957,652	2 / 9
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$43,605,282,965	2 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	2	0
2026-06-01	2	2	0
2026-07-01	2	2	1
2026-08-01	2	2	0
2026-09-01	2	3	0
2026-10-01	1	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Sep 2

$58.00 → $33.00-43.1%

$0$31.90$63.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Market share and partnershipsQualitative condition
Earnings per share (EPS)Published status: Broken
Barclays' total revenuePublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BARCLAYS PLC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a moderate-risk play in the financial sector, which is currently facing headwinds. The thesis state is considered insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history.

What's priced into BARCLAYS PLC

The current valuation suggests low fragility, indicating that the market does not expect significant disruptions. However, the overall expectations for the financial sector are cautious, given the recent performance of major banks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain under pressure in the near term due to the potential for missed earnings, as BCS has a history of misses. The probability of a miss is low, but caution is warranted given past performance.

What BARCLAYS PLC hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JPM, BAC, and HSBC. If these banks continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could provide a favorable environment for BCS.