Boise Cascade (BCC)

NYSEIndustrialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$77.74-0.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Boise Cascade’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.18 → 5.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA	$82M–$114Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.54B
EPS	—	0.651
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.63B
EPS	—	3.889
Capital expenditure	$150M–$170M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.88B
EPS	—	5.046

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share	Boise Cascade keeps paying a steady quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share.	Intact	Dividend cut below $0.22 per share	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income stabilizes above $17.8 million quarterly	A primary condition in Boise Cascade's published investment case. The stated target is Net income >= $18 million per quarter.	Intact	Net income falls below $15 million per quarter over next 4 quarters	Net income: $57.342M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $18 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202657,342,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 94a469ba-c38d-4b3c-b7ed-295339f207d1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from Q1 2026 level of $27.8 million	A primary condition in Boise Cascade's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $40 million.	Intact	Operating income remains below $30 million over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $83.976M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $40 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202683,976,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 94a469ba-c38d-4b3c-b7ed-295339f207d1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 5% next fiscal year	Lumber demand supports revenue growth near 5% next year.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.05

$5.46 → $5.05 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.88B

$6.86B → $6.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.46	$6,857,900,280	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$5.46	$6,857,900,280	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$5.46	$6,857,900,280	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$5.46	$6,857,900,280	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$5.46	$6,857,900,280	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$5.46	$6,857,900,280	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$5.37	$6,860,471,713	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$5.46	$6,857,900,280	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$5.46	$6,857,900,280	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$5.46	$6,860,471,710	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$5.46	$6,860,471,710	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$5.46	$6,860,401,280	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$5.30	$6,793,163,140	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$5.30	$6,793,163,140	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$5.16	$6,853,294,810	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$5.42	$6,878,866,240	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$5.42	$6,878,866,240	5 / 7
2026-08-10	$5.42	$6,878,866,240	5 / 7
2026-08-11	$5.29	$6,874,994,810	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$5.29	$6,874,994,810	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$5.29	$6,874,994,810	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$5.16	$6,853,294,810	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$5.16	$6,853,294,810	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$5.16	$6,853,294,810	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$5.16	$6,853,294,810	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$5.16	$6,853,294,810	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$5.16	$6,853,294,810	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$5.16	$6,853,294,810	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$5.18	$6,874,937,953	5 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$6,873,764,096	4 / 5
2026-10-14	$5.06	$6,873,764,096	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$5.05	$6,876,334,735	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	2	1
2026-06-01	4	2	1
2026-07-01	4	2	1
2026-08-01	4	2	1
2026-09-01	4	2	1
2026-10-01	4	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.22 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net income stabilizes above $17.8 million quarterlyNet income: $57.342M
Operating income improves from Q1 2026 level of $27.8 millionOperating income: $83.976M
Revenue growth of at least 5% next fiscal yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Boise Cascade outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on steady income through dividends. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats, but confidence has shifted to medium due to mixed management execution.

What's priced into Boise Cascade

The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not fully accounting for potential turbulence. Valuation appears cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap suggesting some room for improvement.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance has been strong, with operating income improving, although net income has declined slightly. The company is managing capital expenditures well, but there are mixed results in achieving management priorities.

What Boise Cascade hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwether UFPI, which could influence BCC's momentum. Additionally, any cuts to guidance from BCC could negatively impact sentiment and estimates.