Baxter International (BAX)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$25.28-1.86%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Baxter International’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.04 → 2.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share	A supporting condition in Baxter International's published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share.	Intact	Dividend cut or suspension	Dividend per share: $0.01 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.01 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: af549a24-5277-4edf-931c-7756b2677753. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. The company reduced its quarterly dividend from $0.17 in 2025-Q4 to $0.01 in 2026-Q1 and has maintained the $0.01 dividend through 2026-Q2. This reflects management's commitment to maintain the current dividend level despite prior higher payouts. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Adjusted EPS near $1.95 in 2026	Baxter aims for adjusted EPS near $1.95 in 2026.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS falls below $1.85 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 reported sales growth guidance from flat to 1% in 2026-Q1 to 3% to 4% in 2026-Q2, and adjusted EPS guidance from $1.85-$2.05 to $1.95-$2.15. Revenue grew from $2.7B in 2026-Q1 to $2.96B in 2026-Q2 (+5%). The trajectory matches management's stated priority, delivering improved financial outlook. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stable management and execution	A supporting condition in Baxter International's published investment case. The stated target is No major negative management changes or execution failures.	Improving	Significant management departures or failures reported	Qualitative: CFO transition managed, guidance raised CFO transition occurred, but company raised 2026 sales and earnings guidance, supporting execution stability. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at least 2% annually	A primary condition in Baxter International's published investment case. The stated target is >= 2% YoY.	Under Pressure	Revenue growth falls below 2% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 5.34% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 2% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20265.338078 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: af549a24-5277-4edf-931c-7756b2677753. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management emphasized expansion of the Baxter Growth and Performance System (GPS) with over 230 initiatives launched in 2026-Q1. While financials show improving revenue and operating income from $2.7B and $66M in 2026-Q1 to $2.96B and $217M in 2026-Q2, the GPS priority is a recurring focus with narrow delivery so far. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.04

$2.01 → $2.04 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.87B

$11.58B → $11.87B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.01	$11,583,154,220	13 / 12
2026-07-25	$2.01	$11,583,154,220	13 / 12
2026-07-26	$2.01	$11,583,154,220	13 / 12
2026-07-27	$2.01	$11,583,154,220	13 / 12
2026-07-28	$2.01	$11,583,154,220	13 / 12
2026-07-29	$2.00	$11,583,809,340	14 / 13
2026-07-30	$2.00	$11,583,809,340	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$2.02	$11,671,152,090	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$2.01	$11,709,471,544	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$2.06	$11,823,722,540	14 / 13
2026-08-03	$2.06	$11,823,722,540	14 / 13
2026-08-04	$2.06	$11,823,722,540	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$2.06	$11,839,306,410	14 / 13
2026-08-06	$2.06	$11,839,306,410	14 / 13
2026-08-07	$2.03	$11,828,517,690	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$2.06	$11,856,331,360	14 / 13
2026-08-09	$2.06	$11,856,331,360	14 / 13
2026-08-10	$2.06	$11,856,331,360	14 / 13
2026-08-11	$2.06	$11,856,331,360	14 / 13
2026-08-12	$2.03	$11,863,663,970	13 / 12
2026-08-13	$2.03	$11,863,663,970	13 / 12
2026-08-14	$2.03	$11,828,517,690	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$2.03	$11,828,517,690	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$2.03	$11,828,517,690	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$2.03	$11,828,517,690	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$2.03	$11,828,517,690	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$2.03	$11,828,517,690	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$2.03	$11,828,517,690	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$2.04	$11,866,298,629	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$2.04	$11,867,025,902	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$2.04	$11,869,207,720	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	12	1
2026-06-01	2	11	1
2026-07-01	3	12	1
2026-08-01	3	12	1
2026-09-01	3	11	0
2026-10-01	2	11	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 6 · prior May 4

$27.00 → $20.00-25.9%

$0$14.85$29.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.01 per shareDividend per share: $0.01 per share
Adjusted EPS near $1.95 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth at least 2% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Baxter International outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical investment with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance, but management's execution remains volatile.

What's priced into Baxter International

The market seems to have priced in some fragility due to weak execution quality, but the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market may have lower expectations for future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, as management has been focused on improving guidance and expanding initiatives. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings surprises trending down.

What Baxter International hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain or raise guidance in upcoming calls and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, broader economic indicators, such as job reports, could impact the company's performance.