Boeing (BA)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15

$190.21+0.78%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Boeing’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-9.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.99 → 3.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Backlog grows to at least $680 billion by end 2025	Boeing is growing revenue with a record backlog of $682 billion.	Improving	Backlog falls below $600 billion by 2025-Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total backlog increased from $636B in 2025-Q3 to $715B in 2026-Q2, and Commercial Airplanes deliveries rose from 160 to 171. Management highlights building momentum and record backlog, and the financials show delivering growth in backlog and deliveries supporting this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Net income improves to at least $8 billion by end 2025	Net income improved to $8.22 billion in late 2025.	Broken	Net income remains negative or below $5 billion in 2025-Q4	Net income: $-444M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8 billion. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 28, 2026-444,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8c7dc708-837e-444a-b189-375566e355aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Net loss improved from ($612M) in 2025-Q2 to ($428M) in 2026-Q2, and operating cash flow increased from $227M to $1.4B. Management consistently emphasizes restoring trust and recovery progress, and the financials show delivering improvement in profitability and cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operations stabilize with no major IT outages disrupting production	A supporting condition in Boeing's published investment case. The stated target is No major IT outages in next 4 quarters.	Improving	Major IT outages disrupt production more than twice in next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Commercial Airplanes deliveries increased from 150 in 2025-Q2 to 171 in 2026-Q2, revenue grew from $10.9B to $11.8B, and total backlog rose from $619B to $715B. Management consistently emphasizes stabilizing operations and completing development programs, and the trajectory shows delivering progress in operational stability and backlog growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $89.5 billion in FY 2026	A primary condition in Boeing's published investment case. The stated target is >= $89.5 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $80 billion in FY 2026	Revenue: $24.56B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $89.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202624,560,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8c7dc708-837e-444a-b189-375566e355aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Commercial Airplanes deliveries increased from 150 in 2025-Q2 to 171 in 2026-Q2, revenue grew from $10.9B to $11.8B, and total backlog rose from $619B to $715B. Management consistently emphasizes stabilizing operations and completing development programs, and the trajectory shows delivering progress in operational stability and backlog growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.62

$4.10 → $3.62 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$111.99B

$112.02B → $111.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.10	$112,023,636,250	22 / 25
2026-07-25	$4.10	$112,023,636,250	22 / 25
2026-07-26	$4.10	$112,023,636,250	22 / 25
2026-07-27	$4.09	$112,023,636,250	23 / 25
2026-07-28	$4.09	$112,023,636,250	23 / 25
2026-07-29	$4.18	$112,025,356,250	22 / 25
2026-07-30	$4.18	$112,025,356,250	22 / 25
2026-07-31	$4.18	$112,548,405,440	21 / 26
2026-08-01	$4.02	$112,398,837,060	16 / 19
2026-08-02	$4.00	$112,334,950,543	16 / 19
2026-08-03	$4.14	$112,548,390,050	22 / 26
2026-08-04	$4.14	$112,548,390,050	22 / 26
2026-08-05	$4.20	$112,744,443,900	22 / 26
2026-08-06	$4.20	$112,744,443,900	22 / 26
2026-08-07	$4.00	$112,672,831,405	16 / 19
2026-08-08	$4.13	$112,830,045,460	22 / 26
2026-08-09	$4.13	$112,830,045,460	22 / 26
2026-08-10	$4.13	$112,830,045,460	22 / 26
2026-08-11	$4.00	$112,672,831,405	16 / 19
2026-08-12	$4.13	$112,830,045,460	22 / 26
2026-08-13	$4.13	$112,830,045,460	22 / 26
2026-08-14	$4.00	$112,672,831,405	16 / 19
2026-08-15	$4.00	$112,672,831,405	16 / 19
2026-08-16	$4.00	$112,672,831,405	16 / 19
2026-08-17	$4.00	$112,672,831,405	16 / 19
2026-08-18	$4.00	$112,672,831,405	16 / 19
2026-08-19	$4.00	$112,672,831,405	16 / 19
2026-08-20	$4.00	$112,672,831,405	16 / 19
2026-08-21	$4.03	$112,681,708,328	16 / 19
2026-08-22	$4.03	$112,681,708,328	16 / 19
2026-08-23	$4.03	$112,681,708,328	16 / 19
2026-08-24	$4.03	$112,681,708,328	16 / 19
2026-08-25	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-08-26	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-08-27	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-08-28	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-08-29	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-08-30	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-08-31	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-09-01	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-09-02	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-09-03	$4.03	$112,681,707,577	16 / 19
2026-09-04	$4.03	$112,681,716,020	16 / 19
2026-09-05	$4.03	$112,681,716,020	16 / 19
2026-09-06	$4.03	$112,681,716,020	16 / 19
2026-09-07	$4.03	$112,681,716,020	16 / 19
2026-09-08	$4.03	$112,681,716,020	16 / 19
2026-09-09	$4.03	$112,681,707,578	16 / 19
2026-09-10	$4.03	$112,681,707,578	16 / 20
2026-09-11	$3.99	$112,681,707,578	16 / 20
2026-09-12	$3.99	$112,681,707,578	16 / 20
2026-09-13	$3.99	$112,681,707,578	16 / 20
2026-09-14	$3.99	$112,681,707,578	16 / 20
2026-09-15	$3.99	$112,681,708,328	16 / 20
2026-09-16	$3.99	$112,681,708,328	16 / 20
2026-09-17	$3.99	$112,681,708,328	16 / 20
2026-09-18	$3.99	$112,681,708,328	16 / 20
2026-09-19	$3.99	$112,681,708,328	16 / 20
2026-09-20	$3.99	$112,681,708,328	16 / 20
2026-09-21	$3.99	$112,681,708,328	16 / 20
2026-09-22	$3.95	$112,702,100,636	16 / 20
2026-09-23	$3.95	$112,702,100,636	16 / 20
2026-09-24	$3.95	$112,702,100,636	16 / 19
2026-09-25	$3.95	$112,702,100,636	16 / 20
2026-09-26	$3.95	$112,702,100,636	16 / 20
2026-09-27	$3.95	$112,702,100,636	16 / 20
2026-09-28	$3.95	$112,702,092,193	16 / 20
2026-09-29	$3.90	$112,683,680,919	16 / 20
2026-09-30	$3.91	$112,683,663,496	16 / 20
2026-10-01	$3.90	$112,683,678,881	16 / 20
2026-10-02	$3.89	$112,483,434,737	16 / 20
2026-10-03	$3.89	$112,483,452,160	16 / 20
2026-10-04	$3.89	$112,483,452,160	16 / 20
2026-10-05	$3.89	$112,483,452,161	16 / 20
2026-10-06	$3.88	$112,393,913,699	16 / 20
2026-10-07	$3.80	$112,203,037,526	16 / 20
2026-10-08	$3.70	$112,069,463,880	16 / 20
2026-10-09	$3.70	$112,069,451,577	15 / 20
2026-10-10	$3.69	$112,069,443,885	16 / 19
2026-10-11	$3.66	$112,151,905,423	15 / 19
2026-10-12	$3.66	$112,151,905,423	15 / 19
2026-10-13	$3.62	$111,991,140,923	15 / 19
2026-10-14	$3.62	$111,991,140,923	15 / 19
2026-10-15	$3.62	$111,991,140,173	15 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	21	5	1
2026-06-01	21	5	1
2026-07-01	21	6	1
2026-08-01	23	6	1
2026-09-01	24	5	0
2026-10-01	25	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Jul 29

$265.00 → $235.00-11.3%

BernsteinOct 12

$278.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 8

$300.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesSep 21

$265.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$165.00$330.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Backlog grows to at least $680 billion by end 2025Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Net income improves to at least $8 billion by end 2025Published status: Broken
Operations stabilize with no major IT outages disrupting productionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows to at least $89.5 billion in FY 2026Revenue: $24.56B

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Boeing outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on stabilizing operations and restoring trust. The current thesis state indicates a cautious outlook, as recent performance has not met industry standards.

What's priced into Boeing

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that BA is seen as relatively cheap compared to peers. However, the overall valuation reflects a premium, indicating that investors are cautious about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may improve as management focuses on stabilizing operations and completing development programs. Recent results show progress in backlog growth and operating cash flow, but the company remains loss-making, which adds uncertainty.

What Boeing hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for BA. Conversely, any negative guidance or performance from these peers could adversely affect BA's outlook.