Avery Dennison (AVY)

NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$175.31-0.32%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Avery Dennison’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.19 → 11.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Return about $860 million to shareholders annually	The company returns $860 million to shareholders yearly.	Intact	annual shareholder returns fall below $700 million	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. The company returned $347 million in cash to shareholders in first half 2026, including $133 million in Q1 and $214 million in Q2. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA remained stable at 2.3x in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on disciplined capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve at least $60 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring	Cost cuts saved $60 million in 2025.	Intact	cost savings fall below $40 million pre-tax	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. The company realized $34 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring in first half 2026, up from $17 million in Q1. In 2025, savings exceeded $60 million. Management is delivering consistent cost reductions through restructuring. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Grow revenue in high-value categories to at least 4% of total	High-value products make 45% of sales.	Under Pressure	high-value categories fall below 4% of total revenue	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Management consistently emphasized driving growth in high-value categories, which represent about 45% of revenue. Organic sales grew 7.6% in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong execution of this strategy. The trajectory is delivering with sustained growth in these segments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.18

$11.15 → $11.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.64B

$9.57B → $9.64B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.15	$9,572,738,580	12 / 11
2026-07-25	$11.15	$9,572,738,580	12 / 11
2026-07-26	$11.15	$9,572,738,580	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$11.10	$9,565,420,539	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$11.15	$9,572,738,580	12 / 11
2026-07-29	$11.15	$9,572,738,580	12 / 11
2026-07-30	$11.15	$9,572,738,580	12 / 11
2026-07-31	$11.15	$9,572,738,580	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$11.17	$9,592,325,734	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-04	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-06	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-07	$11.19	$9,631,653,601	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-09	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-10	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-11	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-12	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-13	$11.23	$9,632,919,570	12 / 11
2026-08-14	$11.19	$9,631,653,601	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$11.19	$9,631,653,601	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$11.19	$9,631,653,601	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$11.19	$9,631,653,601	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$11.19	$9,631,653,601	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$11.19	$9,631,653,601	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$11.19	$9,631,653,601	8 / 8
2026-08-21	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$11.19	$9,631,655,771	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$11.19	$9,631,650,621	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$11.19	$9,633,640,563	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$11.19	$9,641,954,571	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$11.19	$9,641,954,571	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$11.19	$9,641,954,571	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$11.19	$9,641,954,571	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$11.19	$9,641,954,571	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$11.19	$9,641,954,571	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$11.19	$9,641,954,571	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$11.18	$9,641,957,489	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$11.18	$9,641,957,489	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	2
2026-06-01	9	2
2026-07-01	9	2
2026-08-01	9	2
2026-09-01	9	2
2026-10-01	9	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Jul 15

$209.00 → $208.00-0.5%

JefferiesSep 28

$181.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$114.95$229.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Return about $860 million to shareholders annuallyRequired source inputs unavailable
Achieve at least $60 million in pre-tax savings from restructuringDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Grow revenue in high-value categories to at least 4% of totalPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Avery Dennison outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on high-value categories. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong execution and disciplined capital allocation, despite some fragility in earnings quality.

What's priced into Avery Dennison

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly above average compared to peers. The current fragility in earnings quality does not fully reflect the potential for stronger performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, driven by management's focus on growth and cost reductions. However, there is a moderate risk of earnings misses, as recent surprises have been trending down.

What Avery Dennison hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, inflation trends and overall sector momentum will be crucial for AVY's growth prospects.