AVALYN PHARMA INC (AVLN)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-16

$23.66-3.98%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AVALYN PHARMA INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain strong cash position to fund operations into 2029	The company maintains a strong cash position of $413.5 million, supporting operations through 2029.	Intact	Cash and equivalents fall below $400 million	Cash and cash equivalents: $264.197M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain at least $400 million in cash and equivalents. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source date unavailable264,197,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_balance_sheet. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company ended Q2 2026 with $413.5 million in cash and equivalents, a substantial increase from prior periods due to IPO proceeds, supporting a cash runway projected into 2029. This financial position aligns with management's stated priority to maintain funding for operations and clinical programs. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
Advancing clinical trials for inhaled therapies AP01, AP02, and AP03	Avalyn Pharma is advancing clinical trials for inhaled therapies AP01, AP02, and AP03.	Intact	Enrollment for AP02 Phase 2 does not reach 160 patients by end of 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management reported completion of enrollment for the AP01 MIST Phase 2b trial with 398 patients, exceeding the target of 375, and that AP02 enrollment is on track for 160 patients. The AP03 Phase 1 study is planned to initiate by end of 2026. These clinical development activities are progressing as planned, indicating delivery on stated growth priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026
Expand facilities via sublease amendment with CRISPR Therapeutics	A supporting condition in AVALYN PHARMA INC's published investment case. The stated target is Add 8,774 rentable square feet.	Intact	Facility expansion does not occur as planned	8,774 sq ft secured vs 8,774 sq ft target Form 8-K filed July 1, 2026, confirms entry into a First Amendment to the Sublease with CRISPR Therapeutics for 8,774 rentable square feet. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management executed a sublease amendment adding 8,774 rentable square feet to support operational expansion. This facility expansion is a concrete step toward growth, consistent with prior stated intentions. Delivery assessment Oct 16, 2026

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 0

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	0	0
2026-06-01	4	0	0
2026-07-01	4	0	0
2026-08-01	4	0	0
2026-09-01	4	0	0
2026-10-01	5	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 2

$60.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$33.00$66.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain strong cash position to fund operations into 2029Cash and cash equivalents: $264.197M
Advancing clinical trials for inhaled therapies AP01, AP02, and AP03Qualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AVALYN PHARMA INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity, focusing on the potential of AVLN's clinical trials and operational expansion. The current thesis state is marked by uncertainty due to recent performance and elevated risks in the near term.

What's priced into AVALYN PHARMA INC

The market currently reflects a low level of fragility, indicating that it does not expect significant disruptions. However, there is an elevated risk of earnings misses, which could impact investor sentiment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with advancing clinical trials and maintaining a strong cash position, but there are mixed signals regarding operational expansion. The near-term risk of missing earnings adds pressure to the company's performance.

What AVALYN PHARMA INC hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and the success of AVLN's clinical trials. Favorable outcomes in these areas could support growth, while unfavorable trends could lead to further challenges.