Atlantic Union Bankshares, Corp. (AUB)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$39.89-0.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Atlantic Union Bankshares, Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.04 → 4.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	395.85M
EPS	—	0.981
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	392.95M
EPS	—	0.954
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.55B
EPS	—	3.764
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.62B
EPS	—	4.069

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend per share at least $0.37	It returns capital by increasing dividends, recently up 8.8% to $0.37 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.34	Dividend per share: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.37 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 68a12c83-b14b-4088-bb62-4f797e577608. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income reaches at least $154.6 million in Q1 2026	Atlantic Union Bankshares grows operating income to about $155 million next quarter.	Intact	Operating income falls below $116 million in any quarter	Operating income: $204.493M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $154.6 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026204,493,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue stays near $1.34 billion in FY 2026	A primary condition in Atlantic Union Bankshares, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.34 billion.	Under Pressure	Annual revenue falls below $1.2 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.07

$4.03 → $4.07 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.62B

$1.62B → $1.62B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-07-25	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-07-26	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-07-28	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-07-29	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-07-30	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-02	$4.03	$1,616,094,943	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-04	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-05	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-06	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-09	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-10	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-11	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-12	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$4.03	$1,616,094,940	9 / 8
2026-08-14	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-15	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-16	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-17	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-18	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-19	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-20	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-21	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-22	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$4.03	$1,616,124,506	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$4.04	$1,616,522,803	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$4.04	$1,617,272,928	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$4.04	$1,617,272,928	7 / 6
2026-09-25	$4.04	$1,617,243,365	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$4.04	$1,617,243,365	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$4.04	$1,617,243,365	7 / 6
2026-09-28	$4.04	$1,617,243,365	7 / 6
2026-09-29	$4.04	$1,617,408,126	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$4.04	$1,617,408,126	7 / 6
2026-10-01	$4.04	$1,617,408,126	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$4.04	$1,617,408,126	7 / 6
2026-10-03	$4.04	$1,617,408,126	7 / 6
2026-10-04	$4.04	$1,617,408,126	7 / 6
2026-10-05	$4.04	$1,617,408,126	7 / 6
2026-10-06	$4.03	$1,616,501,376	7 / 6
2026-10-07	$4.03	$1,616,501,376	7 / 6
2026-10-08	$4.03	$1,616,501,376	7 / 6
2026-10-09	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-10	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-11	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-16	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-17	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-18	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-19	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-20	$4.03	$1,616,563,876	7 / 6
2026-10-21	$4.07	$1,617,113,961	7 / 5
2026-10-22	$4.07	$1,617,113,961	7 / 6
2026-10-23	$4.07	$1,617,113,961	7 / 6
2026-10-24	$4.07	$1,617,113,961	7 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	3
2026-06-01	6	3
2026-07-01	6	3
2026-08-01	6	3
2026-09-01	6	3
2026-10-01	6	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleySep 28 · prior Sep 8

$49.00 → $50.00+2.0%

$0$27.50$55.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend per share at least $0.37Dividend per share: $0.37 per share
Operating income reaches at least $154.6 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $204.493M
Annual revenue stays near $1.34 billion in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Atlantic Union Bankshares, Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AUB is a regional banking business with a multi-year view tied to profitable loan growth, credit quality, and the financial sector backdrop. The thesis is intact, with momentum improving, though management execution has been volatile and earnings quality is neutral.

What's priced into Atlantic Union Bankshares, Corp.

The valuation evidence describes AUB as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is effectively zero and the market setup is tagged as justified. That suggests the market is not pricing in a large execution failure, but the evidence does not show a strong gap between expectations and fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results are strong: loans grew, revenue increased from the first to the second quarter, and reported credit measures improved year over year. The latest earnings event was in line, while guidance risk remains; the supplied revenue series does not include the third quarter.

What Atlantic Union Bankshares, Corp. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued profitable growth and keeping credit quality sound. Near term, a guidance cut or falling interest rates could pressure the sector, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.