Atomera, Inc. (ATOM)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.94-4.55%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Atomera, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	100,000
EPS	—	-0.11
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	300,000
EPS	—	-0.48
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1M
EPS	—	-0.4

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce net losses and improve financial performance	Management aims to improve financial results despite recent losses of $6.07M in Q1 2026.	Broken	net loss worsens beyond -$6.07M in any quarter through 2026-Q4	Net income: $-6.336M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net loss less negative than -$4.43M by Q4 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026-6,336,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3ee03666-3fe0-440c-80bc-688d17199040. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage and reduce operating expenses	A supporting condition in Atomera, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating loss less negative than -$4.61M by Q4 2026.	Broken	operating loss worsens beyond -$6.32M in any quarter through 2026-Q4	Operating income: $-6.759M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss less negative than -$4.61M by Q4 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026-6,759,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3ee03666-3fe0-440c-80bc-688d17199040. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating expenses rose from $6.2M in 2026-Q1 to $6.9M in 2026-Q2, contributing to net losses of $6.1M and $6.3M respectively. Management continues to emphasize expense control, but losses remain steady, indicating limited progress on reducing losses. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase revenue through MST adoption and strategic initiatives	Atomera is making progress with MST adoption by GAA manufacturers, which could boost revenue.	Intact	quarterly revenue falls below $11,000 in any quarter through 2026-Q4	Revenue: $158,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50,000 quarterly revenue by Q4 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026158,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3ee03666-3fe0-440c-80bc-688d17199040. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	0	0
2026-06-01	1	0	0
2026-07-01	1	0	0
2026-08-01	1	0	0
2026-09-01	1	0	0
2026-10-01	1	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce net losses and improve financial performancePublished status: Broken
Manage and reduce operating expensesPublished status: Broken
Increase revenue through MST adoption and strategic initiativesRevenue: $158,000

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-75.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Atomera, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, speculative growth business rather than an established compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management priorities show progress, but recent financial performance remains weak and the business is loss-making.

What's priced into Atomera, Inc.

ATOM carries a substantial valuation premium versus peers, with low confidence in the valuation model and an expectations gap tied to future opportunity. The evidence labels this pricing as unjustified, though fragility is rated low because the broader set of weak fundamentals and turbulent conditions is not all present together.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results remain uncertain after earnings misses in May and August, and recent performance sits well below the industry cohort. There are signs of execution progress: revenue rose from $11K in the first quarter to $158K in the second as management advanced MST adoption and licensing and engineering services. Cash was $38.4M in the second quarter after a $25M raise in the first, so maintaining liquidity remains important.

What Atomera, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few years, the key test is whether customer evaluations and expanded GaN offerings lead to sustained revenue growth, rather than isolated early progress. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strength from NVDA, TSM, and AVGO could support the technology backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that support. Fed rate cuts are another possible tailwind, but the evidence does not establish when they might occur.

Bottom line

The 1-to-3-year thesis combines improving early commercial traction with persistent losses, high risk, and a valuation premium that appears difficult to justify on current evidence. The central question is whether adoption and services revenue can become durable before liquidity and execution risks weigh more heavily. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	100,000
EPS	—	-0.11
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	300,000
EPS	—	-0.48
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1M
EPS	—	-0.4

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings