Atmos Energy (ATO)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-15

$167.34+2.07%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Atmos Energy’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditure near $4.2 billion in fiscal 2026	Atmos Energy plans to spend about $4.2 billion on capital in 2026.	Intact	Capital expenditure falls below $3.7 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $1.039B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: approximately $4.2 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261,039,346,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual dividend increased to $4.00 per share in fiscal 2026	The company raised its dividend to $4.00 per share.	Intact	Dividend falls below $3.48 per share in FY26	Dividend per share: $1.00 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $4.00 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 769b9869-4df2-40aa-887f-231c5c92e1df. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS guidance maintained at $8.40 to $8.50 for fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Atmos Energy's published investment case. The stated target is $8.40 - $8.50.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $7.35 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.43 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $8.40 - $8.50. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20261.43 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 769b9869-4df2-40aa-887f-231c5c92e1df. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance was raised from $8.15-$8.35 in 2025-Q4 to $8.40-$8.50 in 2026-Q1 and reaffirmed in 2026-Q2. Diluted EPS increased from $2.44 in 2026-Q1 to $3.47 in 2026-Q2, indicating progress consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$9.77

$9.78 → $9.77 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$6.07B

$6.06B → $6.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	$9.78	$6,064,533,097	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$9.77	$6,070,033,097	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	12	1
2026-06-01	2	11	1
2026-07-01	3	11	1
2026-08-01	3	12	1
2026-09-01	3	12	0
2026-10-01	2	12	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 15 · prior Aug 13

$179.00 → $174.00-2.8%

JefferiesOct 1

$167.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 18 · prior Jul 22

$196.00 → $179.00-8.7%

$0$107.80$215.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditure near $4.2 billion in fiscal 2026Capital expenditures: $1.039B
Annual dividend increased to $4.00 per share in fiscal 2026Dividend per share: $1.00 per share
EPS guidance maintained at $8.40 to $8.50 for fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Atmos Energy outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable utility with a focus on consistent earnings and dividend growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's commitment to capital expenditure and dividend increases.

What's priced into Atmos Energy

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with ATO being seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the company's recent strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given the management's strong execution on capital spending and earnings guidance. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.

What Atmos Energy hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on external factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector peers. Any negative guidance from ATO could significantly affect its outlook.

Bottom line

Overall, ATO's position is supported by strong fundamentals and management execution, but it faces moderate risks in the near term. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.