AST SPACEMOBILE INC (ASTS)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$39.79+2.63%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AST SPACEMOBILE INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	73.56M
EPS	—	-0.406
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	158.91M
EPS	—	-2.381
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	563.73M
EPS	—	-1.254

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Repurchase convertible senior notes totaling $296.5M	It repurchased $296.5M in convertible notes.	Intact	Fails to repurchase at least $296.5 million notes by 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management completed repurchases of approximately $296.5 million principal amount of convertible senior notes by 2026-Q1 and issued $1.0 billion new convertible senior notes in 2026-Q2. This shows delivering activity in managing capital structure through repurchases and new issuances. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 2026 revenue of $150M to $200M	A primary condition in AST SPACEMOBILE INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $150 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $150 million in FY26	Revenue: $31.52M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $150 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202631,520,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 568dbadb-4808-4418-b3e4-d7c414f9e305. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $14.7 million in 2026-Q1 to $31.5 million in 2026-Q2, consistent with management's plan for quarterly ramp. Management has reiterated the $150M-$200M full year 2026 revenue guidance and the trajectory is delivering against it. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth ahead of commercial service activation	The company plans revenue growth before commercial service starts.	Improving	Revenue growth is negative or flat in FY26	Revenue: $31.52M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Sustain positive revenue growth in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202631,520,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 568dbadb-4808-4418-b3e4-d7c414f9e305. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management expects revenue growth during 2026 ahead of commercial service activation, supported by backlog and government milestones. Actual revenue increased from $1.2 million in 2025-Q2 to $31.5 million in 2026-Q2, indicating delivering progress consistent with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.25

$-0.81 → $-1.25 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.56B

$0.78B → $0.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.81	$778,456,046	5 / 8
2026-07-25	$-0.81	$778,456,046	5 / 8
2026-07-26	$-0.81	$778,496,046	5 / 8
2026-07-27	$-0.81	$778,496,046	5 / 8
2026-07-28	$-0.65	$722,329,750	5 / 10
2026-07-29	$-0.69	$722,329,750	6 / 10
2026-07-30	$-0.69	$722,329,750	6 / 10
2026-07-31	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-02	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-03	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-04	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-05	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-06	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-07	$-0.75	$684,191,860	6 / 8
2026-08-08	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-10	$-0.69	$690,477,500	6 / 9
2026-08-11	$-0.79	$671,949,750	7 / 10
2026-08-12	$-0.79	$671,949,750	7 / 10
2026-08-13	$-0.98	$664,197,400	7 / 10
2026-08-14	$-0.75	$684,191,860	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$-0.75	$684,191,860	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$-0.75	$684,191,860	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$-0.75	$684,191,860	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$-0.75	$684,191,860	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$-0.75	$684,191,860	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$-0.75	$684,191,860	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$-0.95	$718,535,557	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-08-23	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-08-24	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-08-25	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-08-26	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-08-27	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-08-28	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-08-29	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-08-30	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-08-31	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-09-01	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-09-02	$-0.95	$718,535,557	8 / 8
2026-09-03	$-1.02	$713,648,206	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$-1.02	$713,648,206	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$-1.02	$713,648,206	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$-1.02	$713,648,206	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$-1.02	$713,648,206	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$-1.02	$713,648,206	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$-1.15	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$-1.15	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$-1.15	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$-1.15	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$-1.15	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$-1.15	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$-1.15	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$-1.15	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$-1.14	$713,645,360	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$-1.14	$712,203,052	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$-1.14	$712,203,052	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$-1.14	$712,203,052	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$-1.14	$712,203,052	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$-1.14	$689,728,975	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$-1.14	$689,728,975	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$-1.14	$689,728,975	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$-1.14	$689,728,975	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$-1.14	$689,728,975	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$-1.14	$689,728,975	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$-1.14	$689,725,460	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$-1.20	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$-1.34	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$-1.34	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$-1.34	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$-1.34	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$-1.34	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$-1.34	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$-1.36	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$-1.36	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$-1.36	$667,779,306	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$-1.25	$563,727,143	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	7	2
2026-06-01	2	7	2
2026-07-01	4	7	3
2026-08-01	4	7	2
2026-09-01	5	7	2
2026-10-01	5	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades2 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankOct 23

$55.70New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 13 · prior Aug 11

$98.00 → $54.00-44.9%

B.Riley FinancialOct 2

$65.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$53.90$107.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Repurchase convertible senior notes totaling $296.5MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 2026 revenue of $150M to $200MRevenue: $31.52M
Revenue growth ahead of commercial service activationRevenue: $31.52M

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-70.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AST SPACEMOBILE INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative growth, not a proven durable compounder: the business is loss-making, recent results are weak, and risk is high. The thesis is on watch, with medium overall evidence confidence and improving company momentum, but recent performance remains well below its industry cohort.

What's priced into AST SPACEMOBILE INC

ASTS carries a 37.71% premium versus peers, while its valuation is tied to optionality, meaning value assigned to possible future growth. The evidence labels that pricing justified, but the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low, so the valuation case remains uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue progress supports management's 2026 guidance: quarterly revenue rose from $14.7 million in the first quarter to $31.5 million in the second, and the $150 million to $200 million full-year goal remains on track. However, repeated earnings misses and elevated risk of another miss temper that progress; the satellite launch campaign is mixed, and capital-structure actions include both note repurchases and a new issuance.

What AST SPACEMOBILE INC hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the main test is whether ASTS maintains its revenue ramp and executes its satellite production and launch plans without cutting guidance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier rates or continued strength in the cited sector bellwether could provide a favorable backdrop, though neither resolves company-specific execution risk.