AST SPACEMOBILE INC (ASTS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$62.42-5.60%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
ASTS aims for $150M to $200M revenue in 2026. It repurchased $296.5M in convertible notes. The company plans revenue growth before commercial service starts.
ASTS is loss-making and missed earnings twice in 2026. Revenue fell sharply in Q1. The recent guidance cut shows growth risks.
The price is about 30% below our fair value of $106. Analysts expect 100% revenue growth. The market prices in strong growth but also risks.
Breaks if: Fails to repurchase at least $296.5 million notes by 2026-Q1
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $150 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is cautious due to recent earnings misses and high near-term risks, despite some positive management priorities.
The market appears to have priced in a significant expectations gap, indicating that it anticipates challenges ahead. ASTS's valuation is at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting some market optimism despite its loss-making status.
Fundamentals are under pressure due to a high probability of an earnings miss in the near term. Recent financial performance has been weak, and the company has a history of consecutive earnings misses, which raises concerns about management execution.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet revenue guidance and successfully launch the BlueBird satellites. Additionally, broader market conditions, such as potential interest rate cuts and sector performance led by peers like OOMA, could influence ASTS's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Revenue growth supports the 2026 guidance of $150M-$200M. However, a revenue miss challenges the same guidance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Drive revenue growth supported by backlog of mobile network operator partner revenue and U.S. Government contract milestones ahead of commercial service activation.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management expects revenue growth during 2026 ahead of commercial service activation, supported by backlog and government milestones. Actual revenue increased from $1.2 million in 2025-Q2 to $31.5 million in 2026-Q2, indicating delivering progress consistent with this priority.
“Revenue expected to grow during 2026 ahead of commercial service activation, supported by backlog of mobile network operator partner revenue and U.S. Government contract milestones”
Breaks if: Revenue growth is negative or flat in FY26
Drive revenue growth supported by backlog of mobile network operator partner revenue and U.S. Government contract milestones ahead of commercial service activation.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management expects revenue growth during 2026 ahead of commercial service activation, supported by backlog and government milestones. Actual revenue increased from $1.2 million in 2025-Q2 to $31.5 million in 2026-Q2, indicating delivering progress consistent with this priority.
“Revenue expected to grow during 2026 ahead of commercial service activation, supported by backlog of mobile network operator partner revenue and U.S. Government contract milestones”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ASTS will need to navigate significant operational challenges while capitalizing on favorable market conditions. Not investment advice.