Associated Bank (ASB)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.21+1.34%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Associated Bank’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.33 → 3.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	471.54M
EPS	—	0.806
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.77B
EPS	—	3.023
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.93B
EPS	—	3.389

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $3 in FY26	Earnings per share are expected near $3 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.97 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete integration of American National Corporation	A supporting condition in Associated Bank's published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration by end of 2026.	Intact	Integration delays or issues slow growth	Integration conversion completed by end-2026 target ASB outlines 2026 NII growth of 19-21% as American National conversion completes; Q3 margin hits decade high. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Management said the conversion was completed; 2026-Q3 noninterest expense was $260 million, including $13 million of acquisition-related nonrecurring costs. Completion is a concrete integration milestone, while integration-related expense remains present. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth at or above -8% next year	A primary condition in Associated Bank's published investment case. The stated target is >= -8% YoY.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below -8% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Management said the conversion was completed; 2026-Q3 noninterest expense was $260 million, including $13 million of acquisition-related nonrecurring costs. Completion is a concrete integration milestone, while integration-related expense remains present. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete $100M share repurchase program	A supporting condition in Associated Bank's published investment case. The stated target is Complete $100M buyback.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or not completed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.39

$3.29 → $3.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.93B

$1.91B → $1.93B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.29	$1,913,453,229	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.28	$1,903,507,430	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$3.28	$1,903,507,430	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$3.30	$1,920,303,057	6 / 5
2026-07-28	$3.29	$1,915,993,140	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$3.29	$1,915,993,140	8 / 7
2026-07-30	$3.31	$1,918,364,570	8 / 7
2026-07-31	$3.31	$1,918,364,570	8 / 7
2026-08-01	$3.31	$1,918,364,570	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.31	$1,922,674,486	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$3.31	$1,918,364,570	8 / 7
2026-08-04	$3.31	$1,918,364,570	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$3.32	$1,918,507,430	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$3.32	$1,918,507,430	8 / 7
2026-08-07	$3.31	$1,922,674,486	6 / 5
2026-08-08	$3.32	$1,918,507,430	8 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.32	$1,918,507,430	8 / 7
2026-08-10	$3.32	$1,918,507,430	8 / 7
2026-08-11	$3.33	$1,920,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.33	$1,920,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.33	$1,920,900,000	8 / 7
2026-08-14	$3.31	$1,922,674,486	6 / 5
2026-08-15	$3.31	$1,922,674,486	6 / 5
2026-08-16	$3.31	$1,922,674,486	6 / 5
2026-08-17	$3.31	$1,922,674,486	6 / 5
2026-08-18	$3.31	$1,922,674,486	6 / 5
2026-08-19	$3.31	$1,922,674,486	6 / 5
2026-08-20	$3.33	$1,925,157,143	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$3.33	$1,925,157,143	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$3.33	$1,925,157,143	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$3.33	$1,925,157,143	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$3.33	$1,925,157,143	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$3.33	$1,925,157,143	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$3.33	$1,925,157,143	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$3.33	$1,925,157,143	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$3.33	$1,925,157,143	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.33	$1,925,925,000	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-17	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-18	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-19	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-20	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-21	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-22	$3.33	$1,925,175,000	8 / 6
2026-09-23	$3.33	$1,923,912,500	8 / 6
2026-09-24	$3.33	$1,923,912,500	8 / 6
2026-09-25	$3.33	$1,923,912,500	8 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.33	$1,923,912,500	8 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.33	$1,923,912,500	8 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.33	$1,923,912,500	8 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.33	$1,923,912,500	8 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.33	$1,923,912,500	8 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.34	$1,924,200,000	8 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.34	$1,924,200,000	8 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.34	$1,924,200,000	8 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.34	$1,924,200,000	8 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.34	$1,924,200,000	8 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.34	$1,924,200,000	8 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.36	$1,928,450,000	8 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.36	$1,928,450,000	8 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.36	$1,927,562,500	8 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.36	$1,927,562,500	8 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.37	$1,927,525,000	8 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.39	$1,932,925,000	8 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.39	$1,932,925,000	7 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	6
2026-06-01	4	5
2026-07-01	4	5
2026-08-01	4	6
2026-09-01	4	6
2026-10-01	4	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 23 · prior Aug 26

$34.00 → $35.00+2.9%

Wells FargoSep 29

$35.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$19.25$38.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $3 in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth at or above -8% next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Complete $100M share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Associated Bank outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ASB is a financial-sector growth and execution story, with robust earnings quality but weak recent performance. Its long-term thesis is in watch status after a fresh earnings miss and a sharp decline in company momentum, despite progress on loan and deposit growth.

What's priced into Associated Bank

ASB is rated cheap versus peers, with the valuation model showing an expectations gap of -0.04 and high confidence. The priced-in assessment is justified, and no fragility warning is active, but recent performance trails the industry cohort.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, rising loans and deposits support management’s stated focus on sustainable organic growth. The American National conversion is complete, though integration costs remain, and the company reported completing its $100 million repurchase authorization. Near term, the latest earnings miss and a record of recent peer misses keep execution risk in view; the sector backdrop is also a headwind.

What Associated Bank hinges on

The next guidance update is a key swing factor, since a cut could add pressure to estimates. The thesis also depends on interest-rate conditions, with rate cuts identified as a headwind for financial companies, and on whether sector peers continue to report strong earnings and guidance.