Aramark (ARMK)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$52.56+0.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aramark’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2027-01-03
Revenue	—	5.27B
EPS	—	0.643
Annual ending 2027-10-03
Revenue	—	21.96B
EPS	—	2.813
Annual ending 2028-10-03
Revenue	—	23.67B
EPS	—	3.358

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income growth through efficiencies and revenue gains	Net income improves with better efficiency.	Improving	Net income growth falls below 5% YoY next year	Net income: $97.658M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income grows at least 10% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 11, 202697,658,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 73432387-b16a-43ea-b101-83494e2bd220. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 15% in fiscal 2025	A primary condition in Aramark's published investment case. The stated target is 15% to 15.5% margin.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 14% in FY25	Operating margin: 3.75% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 15% to 15.5% margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Nov 25, 20253.746112 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 83efad70-d275-4e69-a60f-8f2908e1b492. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of 7% to 9% in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Aramark's published investment case. The stated target is 7% to 9% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 9.33% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 7% to 9% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 20269.325896 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 73432387-b16a-43ea-b101-83494e2bd220. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.36

$3.36 → $3.36 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$23.67B

$23.61B → $23.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-04	$3.36	$23,610,206,316	7 / 11
2026-10-05	$3.36	$23,610,206,316	7 / 11
2026-10-06	$3.36	$23,610,206,316	7 / 11
2026-10-07	$3.36	$23,610,206,316	7 / 11
2026-10-08	$3.36	$23,610,206,316	7 / 11
2026-10-09	$3.35	$23,686,206,316	7 / 11
2026-10-10	$3.35	$23,686,206,316	7 / 11
2026-10-11	$3.35	$23,686,206,316	7 / 11
2026-10-12	$3.35	$23,686,206,316	7 / 11
2026-10-13	$3.35	$23,667,103,732	7 / 11
2026-10-14	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-15	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-16	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-17	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-18	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-19	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-20	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-21	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-22	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-23	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11
2026-10-24	$3.36	$23,674,978,056	7 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	1	1
2026-06-01	14	1	2
2026-07-01	14	1	1
2026-08-01	14	1	2
2026-09-01	14	1	1
2026-10-01	14	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income growth through efficiencies and revenue gainsNet income: $97.658M
Operating margin near 15% in fiscal 2025Published status: Broken
Revenue growth of 7% to 9% in fiscal 2026Revenue growth: 9.33%

Next proof point

Nov 16, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aramark outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth and margin-improvement thesis, not a turnaround: management has met stated priorities for revenue growth and operating income expansion. The multi-year view is intact, though momentum has weakened and earnings quality is flagged as fragile.

What's priced into Aramark

ARMK is valued at a sizable premium to peers, and the valuation evidence points to expectations that already assume continued progress. The model has low confidence, while the priced-in assessment says the weakness in execution quality alone does not make the setup broadly fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show revenue growth and operating income expansion, in line with management’s outlook, while the company works to reduce leverage. Guidance cuts remain a risk, and recent company momentum has fallen; the near-term miss risk is rated quiet despite a history of industry misses.

What Aramark hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on sustaining organic revenue growth, expanding operating income and margins, and reaching the leverage goal. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while BFAM’s results and guidance may signal whether the sector tailwind persists or fades.

Bottom line

Over the next one to three years, ARMK’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but its premium valuation leaves little room for weaker execution. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.