Aramark (ARMK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$56.91-1.16%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating margin near 15% in fiscal 2025: FY26 operating margin guidance mid 14.5% vs 15.0% target; FY25 actual 4.3%.
Aramark grows revenue about 7% to 9% in 2026. Profit margins stay near 15%. Net income improves with better efficiency. New contracts and data centers boost growth.
Profit margins barely grow, limiting income gains. Revenue growth slows below 7%. New business wins fail to sustain momentum.
The price is about 31% above our fair value near $43. Analysts expect about 10% revenue growth, slightly above our model.
Breaks if: Net income growth falls below 5% YoY next year
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 14% in FY25
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on organic revenue growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has shown some weakness despite positive management priorities.
The market seems to price in a premium compared to peers, indicating a belief in ARMK's potential despite its current expensive valuation. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that some investors may anticipate better performance than what is currently being delivered.
Management is on track with its priorities, particularly in driving revenue growth and expanding operating income. However, the recent financial performance has slipped, indicating potential challenges ahead.
The thesis hinges on ARMK's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and manage risks related to inflation and sector performance. Key triggers include guidance updates and the performance of sector peers like BFAM.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The expansion of the Aramark Nexus platform in hyperscale AI data centers also drives momentum. This aligns with management's growth objectives and confirms strong revenue growth.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ARMK's performance will depend on its execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.