Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-09
$6.76-0.44%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS at or above $0.16 next quarter: EPS 0.13 vs 0.16 target.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance pays a high dividend yield near 10%. The company targets about $58.6 million revenue next quarter. Its price-to-earnings ratio is low at 9.93, suggesting cheap valuation. Apollo has recently completed acquisitions and repaid debt, improving its balance sheet.
Revenue is expected to decline sharply by about 53% next year. Earnings per share guidance is soft and recent EPS missed estimates by 24%. The sector faces headwinds and the stock price is correcting. Dividend sustainability may be at risk if earnings weaken further.
The market prices in about -53% revenue growth and a stretched valuation with price about 28% above our fair value near $8. Our view is more cautious on revenue and earnings growth, expecting weaker fundamentals than priced.
Breaks if: New debt issuance or asset sales that weaken balance sheet
Breaks if: dividend cut or yield falls significantly below 8%
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.16 next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation as ARI is in the process of dissolving and liquidating the company. The current thesis state is weakened due to mixed recent performance and elevated risks in the sector.
The market currently prices ARI as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap suggesting that investors may not fully appreciate the risks involved. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to immediate changes.
Fundamentals are likely to remain neutral in the near term, given the company's mixed recent performance and elevated risk factors. The probability of missing earnings is notable, as the industry has seen peers struggle recently.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to execute the dissolution effectively and the potential impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, performance from sector peers could influence ARI's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. ARI's recent financial performance fell from the robust half to the weak half of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the reasons to own the stock. The market reaction has been muted, showing no clear direction.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $58 million next quarter
In the next 1 to 3 years, ARI's outlook will depend on its management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.