Apollo Global Management (APO)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$110.78-0.97%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Apollo Global Management’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.74 → 10.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase annual dividend to $2.25 per share	It aims to increase its dividend by 10% to $2.25 per share.	Intact	annual dividend falls below $2.25 per share in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.56 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.25 per share annual dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.5625 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 46080513-922e-4917-be74-dacdf73d30ff. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The annual dividend per share was increased by 10% from $2.04 to $2.25 starting with the first quarter 2026 dividend, reflected in quarterly dividends rising from $0.51 in 2025-Q4 to $0.5625 in 2026-Q1 and Q2. Management is delivering on this capital allocation commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Drive record fee and spread related earnings	Apollo has a solid track record of earnings beats and robust profit margins.	Intact	fee and spread earnings decline below prior peak levels in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable and trusted leadership	A supporting condition in Apollo Global Management's published investment case. The stated target is no material leadership controversies or loss of key executives.	Intact	material leadership scandal or executive departures occur	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Record origination activity exceeding $300 billion	The company targets record origination activity above $300 billion.	Intact	origination activity fails to exceed $300 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Assets under management grew from $785 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.05 trillion in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong growth. Management consistently emphasized record origination activity exceeding $300 billion and broad origination capabilities, indicating delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.66

$10.66 → $10.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$26.72B

$6.27B → $26.72B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.66	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-07-25	$10.66	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-07-26	$10.66	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-07-27	$10.64	$26,774,531,848	11 / 5
2026-07-28	$10.66	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-07-29	$10.67	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-07-30	$10.67	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-07-31	$10.67	$26,868,682,282	11 / 5
2026-08-01	$10.67	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-08-02	$10.67	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-08-03	$10.67	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-08-04	$10.67	$6,273,400,000	21 / 5
2026-08-05	$10.67	$6,273,600,000	21 / 5
2026-08-06	$10.67	$6,273,600,000	21 / 5
2026-08-07	$10.69	$26,913,101,027	11 / 6
2026-08-08	$10.71	$6,335,114,290	21 / 7
2026-08-09	$10.71	$6,335,114,290	21 / 7
2026-08-10	$10.71	$6,335,114,290	21 / 7
2026-08-11	$10.72	$6,347,800,000	21 / 6
2026-08-12	$10.72	$6,347,800,000	21 / 6
2026-08-13	$10.75	$6,334,883,330	21 / 6
2026-08-14	$10.69	$26,913,101,027	11 / 6
2026-08-15	$10.69	$26,913,101,027	11 / 6
2026-08-16	$10.69	$26,913,101,027	11 / 6
2026-08-17	$10.69	$26,913,101,027	11 / 6
2026-08-18	$10.69	$26,913,101,027	11 / 6
2026-08-19	$10.69	$26,913,101,027	11 / 6
2026-08-20	$10.69	$26,913,101,027	11 / 6
2026-08-21	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-22	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-23	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-24	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-25	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-26	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-27	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-28	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-29	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-30	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-08-31	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-09-01	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-09-02	$10.73	$26,838,051,027	11 / 6
2026-09-03	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 6
2026-09-04	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 6
2026-09-05	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 6
2026-09-06	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 6
2026-09-07	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 6
2026-09-08	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 6
2026-09-09	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 6
2026-09-10	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 6
2026-09-11	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-12	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-13	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-14	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-15	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-16	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-17	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-18	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-19	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-20	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-21	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-22	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-23	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-24	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-25	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-26	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-27	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-28	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-29	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-09-30	$10.74	$26,913,989,743	11 / 5
2026-10-01	$10.73	$26,894,913,438	11 / 5
2026-10-02	$10.73	$26,894,913,438	11 / 5
2026-10-03	$10.70	$26,788,551,563	11 / 6
2026-10-04	$10.70	$26,788,551,563	11 / 6
2026-10-05	$10.70	$26,788,551,563	11 / 6
2026-10-06	$10.71	$26,788,551,563	11 / 6
2026-10-07	$10.70	$26,783,026,563	11 / 6
2026-10-08	$10.70	$26,762,151,563	11 / 6
2026-10-09	$10.70	$26,762,151,563	12 / 6
2026-10-10	$10.70	$26,762,151,563	12 / 6
2026-10-11	$10.70	$26,762,151,563	11 / 6
2026-10-12	$10.70	$26,762,151,563	11 / 6
2026-10-13	$10.70	$26,762,151,563	11 / 6
2026-10-14	$10.66	$26,722,905,291	11 / 6
2026-10-15	$10.66	$26,722,905,291	11 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	6
2026-06-01	13	6
2026-07-01	15	6
2026-08-01	15	6
2026-09-01	16	6
2026-10-01	16	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 1

$127.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$69.85$139.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase annual dividend to $2.25 per shareDividend per share: $0.56 per share
Drive record fee and spread related earningsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain stable and trusted leadershipDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Record origination activity exceeding $300 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Apollo Global Management outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in assets under management and dividend increases. The current thesis state remains intact despite recent earnings misses, indicating a resilient business model.

What's priced into Apollo Global Management

The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with expectations slightly above average compared to peers. However, the stock is considered expensive relative to its financial performance and growth prospects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its growth priorities, including record origination activity and increasing assets under management. However, the recent earnings misses raise some concerns about the company's near-term performance.

What Apollo Global Management hinges on

The thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain earnings momentum, the performance of sector peers, and the impact of potential interest rate changes. Guidance cuts or further earnings misses could negatively affect sentiment.