APA Corporation (APA)

NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$49.15+4.07%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge APA Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+8.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.30 → 4.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $450M controllable spend savings by end 2026	A primary condition in APA Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $450 million total savings.	Intact	controllable spend savings fall below $350 million run-rate by end 2025 or fail to progress toward $450 million by end 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain EPS near $6.33 for FY26	Its valuation is cheap compared to peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio near 8.	Improving	EPS falls below $6.33 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.33 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20262.11 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e2b485e4-3456-4d33-8d56-a460f658f48f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain U.S. oil production at 125,000 to 127,000 barrels per day	oil production is steady at about 126,000 barrels per day.	Intact	U.S. oil production falls below 125,000 barrels per day in FY25	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. APA raised its U.S. oil production guidance from 122,000 barrels per day in 2026-Q1 to 123,000 barrels per day in 2026-Q2, delivering 123,500 barrels per day in 2026-Q2, exceeding guidance by 2,500 barrels. The trajectory matches management's stated growth focus with sustained production levels. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.65

$4.10 → $4.65 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.25B

$7.99B → $8.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.10	$7,985,460,460	22 / 8
2026-07-25	$4.10	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-07-26	$4.10	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-07-27	$3.88	$8,040,711,685	14 / 7
2026-07-28	$4.10	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-07-29	$4.12	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-07-30	$4.12	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-07-31	$4.12	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-08-01	$4.12	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-08-02	$4.12	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-08-03	$4.12	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-08-04	$4.12	$7,996,960,460	22 / 8
2026-08-05	$4.12	Unavailable	22 / 4
2026-08-06	$4.12	Unavailable	22 / 4
2026-08-07	$3.87	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-08	$4.10	$7,984,936,910	22 / 5
2026-08-09	$4.10	$7,984,936,910	22 / 5
2026-08-10	$4.10	$7,984,936,910	22 / 5
2026-08-11	$3.87	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-12	$4.21	$7,909,136,910	22 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.87	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-14	$3.87	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.87	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.87	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-17	$3.87	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-18	$3.87	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-19	$3.87	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-08-20	$4.04	$8,029,110,280	14 / 5
2026-08-21	$4.11	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-22	$4.11	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-23	$4.11	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-24	$4.11	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-25	$4.12	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-26	$4.12	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-27	$4.12	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-28	$4.12	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-29	$4.12	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-30	$4.12	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-08-31	$4.12	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-09-01	$4.12	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-09-02	$4.12	$8,028,188,369	15 / 5
2026-09-03	$4.11	$8,064,365,733	15 / 5
2026-09-04	$4.11	$8,064,365,733	15 / 5
2026-09-05	$4.09	$8,045,102,575	16 / 6
2026-09-06	$4.12	$8,056,455,469	16 / 6
2026-09-07	$4.12	$8,056,455,469	16 / 6
2026-09-08	$4.12	$8,056,455,469	15 / 5
2026-09-09	$4.15	$8,056,455,469	15 / 5
2026-09-10	$4.15	$8,056,455,469	15 / 5
2026-09-11	$4.16	$8,056,455,469	15 / 5
2026-09-12	$4.16	$8,056,455,469	16 / 5
2026-09-13	$4.20	$8,081,823,890	16 / 5
2026-09-14	$4.20	$8,081,823,890	16 / 5
2026-09-15	$4.30	$8,081,823,890	16 / 5
2026-09-16	$4.30	$8,081,823,890	16 / 5
2026-09-17	$4.30	$8,081,823,890	16 / 5
2026-09-18	$4.30	$8,081,823,890	16 / 5
2026-09-19	$4.30	$8,081,823,890	16 / 5
2026-09-20	$4.30	$8,081,823,890	16 / 5
2026-09-21	$4.30	$8,081,823,890	16 / 5
2026-09-22	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-09-23	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-09-24	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-09-25	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-09-26	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-09-27	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-09-28	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-09-29	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-09-30	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-10-01	$4.37	$8,080,450,206	16 / 5
2026-10-02	$4.40	$8,102,977,154	16 / 5
2026-10-03	$4.47	$8,117,151,001	16 / 5
2026-10-04	$4.51	$8,117,151,001	16 / 5
2026-10-05	$4.51	$8,117,151,001	16 / 5
2026-10-06	$4.52	$8,117,151,001	16 / 5
2026-10-07	$4.54	$8,137,677,317	16 / 5
2026-10-08	$4.54	$8,137,677,317	16 / 5
2026-10-09	$4.60	$8,176,624,685	16 / 5
2026-10-10	$4.60	$8,176,624,685	16 / 5
2026-10-11	$4.60	$8,186,398,206	16 / 5
2026-10-12	$4.60	$8,186,398,206	16 / 5
2026-10-13	$4.65	$8,279,820,079	16 / 6
2026-10-14	$4.61	$8,254,128,080	16 / 6
2026-10-15	$4.65	$8,254,128,080	16 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	16	5
2026-06-01	8	16	4
2026-07-01	8	14	3
2026-08-01	9	14	3
2026-09-01	10	14	3
2026-10-01	10	15	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior May 27

$36.00 → $44.00+22.2%

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Sep 2

$50.00 → $51.00+2.0%

ScotiabankOct 14

$44.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 12 · prior Sep 14

$47.00 → $52.00+10.6%

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Sep 21

$44.00 → $45.00+2.3%

JefferiesOct 11

$41.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$28.60$57.20

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $450M controllable spend savings by end 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain EPS near $6.33 for FY26Diluted EPS: $2.11 per share
Maintain U.S. oil production at 125,000 to 127,000 barrels per dayDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

APA Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis is intact, bolstered by recent earnings beats, but confidence remains low due to fragile earnings quality and elevated risks in the sector.

What's priced into APA Corporation

The market appears to price in a cheap valuation relative to peers, reflecting weak execution quality and a turbulent sector backdrop. This suggests that investors may not fully expect the potential for improved performance from APA.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown mixed results in achieving cost savings and production targets, although recent financial performance has been strong. There is a low probability of missing expectations in the near term, but the company's history of erratic earnings surprises warrants caution.

What APA Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on maintaining credibility with guidance, particularly after recent increases. Additionally, sector momentum from leading companies and inflation trends will be critical in shaping APA's performance moving forward.