A. O. Smith (AOS)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-16
$59.22-0.42%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-16
Published Living FV report summary
This summary shows published values and their evidence and input disclosures. Expand the evidence sections below to inspect the complete published assumptions and monitoring records.
partial evidence coverage · Financial evidence: questionable · Scope: all prepared sources
Values are USD per common share, conditional on the published operating, funding and return assumptions. A scenario range is not a probability or confidence interval.
Swipe or scroll horizontally to compare Low, Base and High. Keyboard users can focus the table and use the arrow keys.
| Business scope | Bear (Low) | Base | Bull (High) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value of today’s operating business Current reported operating scale, with the stated tax, funding and return assumptions. | $41.77 | $41.77 | $41.90 |
| Value including the business growth plan The whole company forecast, including initiative effects and the investment needed to deliver them. | $47.94 | $47.94 | $59.99 |
Following: current · Continuing updates: current.
336 of 336 published forecast outcomes remain unknown. Publication does not establish forecast accuracy or complete evidence.
These values depend on modeled operations, growth, funding and required return. Company estimates and any disclosed proxy inputs are assumptions, not newly observed company facts. The scenario range does not measure the chance of an outcome.
These are model inputs for the published base case. All scenario paths and all source references remain in the published operating phases below.
Years 1–1
Annual revenue growth: 2% · Operating margin: 14%
Input origin: local model estimate
Years 2–3
Annual revenue growth: 2% · Operating margin: 15%
Input origin: local model estimate
Years 4–6
Annual revenue growth: 2% · Operating margin: 15.5%
Input origin: local model estimate
Mature annual growth: 2% · Mature operating margin: 15.5%.
Published maturity basis: The explicit 6-year path captures the near-term ramp from the completed business estimate, after which the company transitions to a mature steady state. The terminal growth of 2% reflects the long-term nominal growth of the water heating and treatment market, consistent with the industry's stable demand and the company's established market position. The mature operating margin of 15.5% accounts for the full realization of cost management initiatives and the normalization of competitive pressures, while the low capital and cash requirements per added revenue reflect the asset-light nature of the mature business model relative to the initial capacity build-out.
Exact input bases and proxy disclosures, where supplied, appear under Accounting estimates and Required return below. No supplied entry does not establish that an assumption is unnecessary or evidence is complete.
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},
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},
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},
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},
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"name": "acquire LVC Holdco LLC (“Leonard Valve”)",
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],
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},
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"name": "acquisition of Pureit",
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],
"setting_rule": "Historical contribution of $54M in 2025 is already reflected in the 2025 actuals and the 2026 base; no incremental 2026 premium is added.",
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},
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],
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},
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},
{
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]
},
{
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]
},
{
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{
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},
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],
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},
{
"name": "restructuring plan in its North America water treatment business",
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"condition": "Restructuring plan in North America water treatment business to increase operational efficiency and accelerate growth.",
"included_in": "CONSOLIDATED_PATH",
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},
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],
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
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"setting_rule": "Capital investments in tankless and heat pump segments; specific dollar amounts or ratios not disclosed.",
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{
"name": "restructuring plan in its North America water treatment business",
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},
{
"name": "price increases",
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{
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{
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},
{
"name": "tankless segment as well as with heat pump technology",
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{
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"setting_rule": "Capital investment in tankless and heat pump portfolio expansion; specific dollar impact not disclosed.",
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},
{
"name": "assessment of strategic opportunities for our China business",
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"setting_rule": "Assessment of China business strategic opportunities is ongoing; outcomes and costs are uncertain. No specific financial impact is quantified, so no adjustment is made to the forecast.",
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},
{
"name": "acquisition",
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{
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],
"setting_rule": "Reflect timing of acquisition close (Q1 2026) for revenue consolidation; no separate premium added.",
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},
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]
},
{
"name": "level load our production",
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"setting_rule": "Production leveling for efficiency benefits; working with customers; no specific financial impact quantified.",
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"name": "strategic review",
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"condition": null,
"included_in": "UNQUANTIFIED",
"source_date": null,
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"setting_rule": "NO_APPLICABLE_ISSUER_OBSERVATION",
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},
{
"name": "pricing actions",
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"condition": "Pricing actions implemented earlier in 2025 to address increased input costs; benefits reflected in 2025 gross profit margin.",
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],
"setting_rule": "Reflect pricing actions implemented in 2025 as already included in 2025 operating margin; no additional impact in 2026 forecast.",
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"affected_fields": [
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]
},
{
"name": "optimize our footprint and streamline our brand portfolio",
"state": "UNKNOWN",
"condition": "Savings begin in 2027; scope is North America water treatment.",
"included_in": "UNQUANTIFIED",
"source_date": "2026-07-30 10:58:56+00:00",
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],
"setting_rule": "Footprint optimization and brand streamlining expected to drive $6M-$8M annual savings beginning in 2027; not yet reflected in 2026 operating margin guidance.",
"initiative_id": "Ia58eff588fc6aafb",
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]
},
{
"name": "adjusted multiple",
"state": "UNKNOWN",
"condition": "Purchase price represents adjusted multiple of approximately 12 times forecasted 2026 EBITDA.",
"included_in": "ALREADY_IN_OPERATING_REFERENCE",
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],
"setting_rule": "Reflect ~12x 2026 EBITDA multiple as valuation context; no direct impact on operating margin or revenue growth in forecast.",
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},
{
"name": "Leonard Valve",
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"condition": "Acquisition date Jan 6, 2026; revenue recognized in Q1 2026 consolidated statements.",
"included_in": "ALREADY_IN_OPERATING_REFERENCE",
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}Conditional operating-error evidence, separate from the scenario range. This is not a probability interval covering every valuation assumption. The published status, labels and limitations follow.
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"transitions": []
}{
"version": "living_fv_report_v1",
"status": "CALCULATED_CONDITIONAL",
"publication_status": "CURRENT",
"symbol": "AOS",
"currency": "USD",
"valuation_date": "2026-10-08",
"reported_opening_date": "2026-06-30",
"source_asof": "2026-10-08T13:46:46.911754+00:00",
"published_at": "2026-10-08T13:59:28.038468+00:00",
"following_status": "CURRENT",
"updates_status": "CURRENT",
"disclaimer": "Not investment advice.",
"name": null,
"hypothesis": {
"reset": "Read the latest living report and discard overrides.",
"targets": [
"phase",
"capital",
"maturity",
"rate"
],
"version": "living_fv_user_hypothesis_v1",
"independence": "User scenarios never replace the living company selection.",
"phase_fields": {
"years": "Years in this phase",
"cash_tax_rate": "Cash tax rate",
"revenue_growth": "Annual revenue growth",
"operating_margin": "Operating profit margin",
"net_ppe_investment_ratio": "Net investment in property and equipment / revenue",
"cash_reserve_per_added_revenue": "Cash held for each additional dollar of revenue",
"working_capital_investment_ratio": "Working capital investment / revenue"
}
}
}Living version identifies the selected calculation.
Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.