Arista Networks (ANET)

NYSEInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-10-15

$176.98-4.63%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arista Networks’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.22 → 5.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Double AI-related sales year over year	A primary condition in Arista Networks's published investment case. The stated target is >=100% YoY AI sales growth next year.	Intact	AI sales growth falls below 50% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Hold gross margin near 63.4% next quarter	A supporting condition in Arista Networks's published investment case. The stated target is >=63% next quarter.	Improving	Gross margin falls below 61% next quarter	Gross margin: 62.93% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=63% next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 202662.927826 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 94df4283-0315-4415-ace0-30b47b72fd45. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margins have been stable around 63-65%, with 63.4% in 2026-Q2 and 62.4% in 2026-Q1. Management's guidance and results show consistent delivery of strong gross margins, matching their stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain operating margin near 46% next quarter	A primary condition in Arista Networks's published investment case. The stated target is >=46% next quarter.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 44% next quarter	Operating margin: 45.39% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=46% next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 202645.393155 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 94df4283-0315-4415-ace0-30b47b72fd45. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margins have been stable around 63-65%, with 63.4% in 2026-Q2 and 62.4% in 2026-Q1. Management's guidance and results show consistent delivery of strong gross margins, matching their stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve revenue growth near $2.8B next quarter	A primary condition in Arista Networks's published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.8B next quarter.	Intact	Revenue falls below ~$2.6B next quarter	Revenue: $3.036B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.8B next quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 20263,035,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 94df4283-0315-4415-ace0-30b47b72fd45. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.930 billion in 2024-Q4 to $3.036 billion in 2026-Q2, a 57% increase over 6 quarters. Management consistently emphasized strong revenue growth, and the financials show delivering growth aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.26

$4.47 → $5.26 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$16.59B

$14.38B → $16.59B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-07-25	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-07-26	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-07-27	$4.47	$14,397,245,025	16 / 21
2026-07-28	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-07-29	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-07-30	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-07-31	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-08-01	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-08-02	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-08-03	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-08-04	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-08-05	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-08-06	$4.47	$14,378,342,230	27 / 27
2026-08-07	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-08	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-09	$5.11	$16,014,237,450	27 / 26
2026-08-10	$5.11	$16,014,237,450	27 / 26
2026-08-11	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-12	$5.16	$16,156,969,840	27 / 26
2026-08-13	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-14	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-15	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-16	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-17	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-18	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-19	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-20	$5.05	$15,902,555,960	16 / 20
2026-08-21	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-22	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-23	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-24	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-25	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-26	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-27	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-28	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-29	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-30	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-08-31	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-09-01	$5.23	$16,476,279,747	17 / 20
2026-09-02	$5.22	$16,463,110,152	17 / 20
2026-09-03	$5.22	$16,463,110,152	17 / 21
2026-09-04	$5.22	$16,463,110,152	18 / 21
2026-09-05	$5.22	$16,463,105,035	18 / 21
2026-09-06	$5.22	$16,463,105,033	18 / 21
2026-09-07	$5.22	$16,463,105,033	18 / 21
2026-09-08	$5.22	$16,463,105,033	18 / 21
2026-09-09	$5.22	$16,463,105,033	18 / 21
2026-09-10	$5.22	$16,463,105,033	18 / 21
2026-09-11	$5.22	$16,463,093,495	18 / 21
2026-09-12	$5.22	$16,463,093,495	18 / 21
2026-09-13	$5.22	$16,463,093,495	18 / 21
2026-09-14	$5.22	$16,463,093,495	18 / 21
2026-09-15	$5.22	$16,463,093,495	18 / 21
2026-09-16	$5.22	$16,463,093,495	18 / 21
2026-09-17	$5.22	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-18	$5.22	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-19	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-20	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-21	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-22	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-23	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-24	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-25	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-26	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-27	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-28	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-29	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-09-30	$5.23	$16,463,094,622	18 / 21
2026-10-01	$5.24	$16,515,313,339	18 / 22
2026-10-02	$5.24	$16,515,313,339	18 / 22
2026-10-03	$5.24	$16,515,313,339	18 / 22
2026-10-04	$5.24	$16,515,313,339	18 / 22
2026-10-05	$5.24	$16,515,313,339	18 / 22
2026-10-06	$5.24	$16,515,317,280	18 / 22
2026-10-07	$5.24	$16,515,317,280	18 / 22
2026-10-08	$5.24	$16,515,317,280	18 / 22
2026-10-09	$5.24	$16,515,317,280	18 / 22
2026-10-10	$5.25	$16,570,885,959	18 / 22
2026-10-11	$5.25	$16,570,885,959	18 / 22
2026-10-12	$5.25	$16,570,885,959	18 / 22
2026-10-13	$5.25	$16,570,885,959	18 / 22
2026-10-14	$5.25	$16,570,885,959	18 / 22
2026-10-15	$5.26	$16,590,811,885	18 / 22

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	30	3
2026-06-01	30	1
2026-07-01	29	1
2026-08-01	31	1
2026-09-01	32	1
2026-10-01	31	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 31 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinSep 30

$250.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$137.50$275.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Double AI-related sales year over yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Hold gross margin near 63.4% next quarterGross margin: 62.93%
Maintain operating margin near 46% next quarterOperating margin: 45.39%
Achieve revenue growth near $2.8B next quarterRevenue: $3.036B

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arista Networks outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder, with a focus on strong revenue and margin growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent financial performance that remains strong within its industry.

What's priced into Arista Networks

The market currently prices ANET at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, indicating that investors have high expectations for future performance. There is a low fragility tier, suggesting that while the valuation is stretched, it is not overly sensitive to immediate market changes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management has consistently prioritized revenue and margin growth, achieving robust results. However, there is a near-term risk of a guidance cut, which could negatively impact expectations.

What Arista Networks hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, continued strong performance from sector bellwethers, and management's ability to maintain guidance. Any changes in these areas could significantly influence ANET's trajectory.