American Tower (AMT)

NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-15

$185.27+2.16%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge American Tower’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.02 → 7.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective capital allocation to support growth and shareholder value	A supporting condition in American Tower's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve capital allocation effectiveness.	Improving	Capital allocation remains ineffective or worsens	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management delivers on financial performance goals	A primary condition in American Tower's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue near $10.7B and EPS near $11 in FY26.	Intact	Revenue or EPS guidance falls below current targets	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 3% per year	A primary condition in American Tower's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Revenue growth: 4.65% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20264.651871 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 440f46a0-eb9a-473c-9f41-9e18cbf2ca2a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.05

$6.86 → $7.05 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.39B

$11.28B → $11.39B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.86	$11,278,052,400	11 / 19
2026-07-25	$6.86	$11,278,052,930	11 / 19
2026-07-26	$6.86	$11,278,052,930	11 / 19
2026-07-27	$6.76	$11,268,599,702	10 / 14
2026-07-28	$6.86	$11,278,052,930	11 / 19
2026-07-29	$6.86	$11,278,064,880	11 / 19
2026-07-30	$6.86	$11,278,064,880	11 / 19
2026-07-31	$6.97	$11,370,431,771	10 / 14
2026-08-01	$6.99	$11,379,533,360	10 / 19
2026-08-02	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-03	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-04	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-05	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-06	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-07	$6.98	$11,373,181,771	10 / 14
2026-08-08	$6.98	$11,373,181,771	10 / 14
2026-08-09	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-10	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-11	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-12	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-13	$7.00	$11,382,138,620	10 / 19
2026-08-14	$6.98	$11,373,181,771	10 / 14
2026-08-15	$6.98	$11,373,181,771	10 / 14
2026-08-16	$6.98	$11,373,181,771	10 / 14
2026-08-17	$6.98	$11,373,181,771	10 / 14
2026-08-18	$6.98	$11,373,181,771	10 / 14
2026-08-19	$6.98	$11,373,181,771	10 / 14
2026-08-20	$6.98	$11,373,181,771	10 / 14
2026-08-21	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-22	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-23	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-24	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-25	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-26	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-27	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-28	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-29	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-30	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-08-31	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-09-01	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-09-02	$7.02	$11,379,811,765	10 / 14
2026-09-03	$7.02	$11,386,972,876	10 / 14
2026-09-04	$7.02	$11,386,972,876	10 / 14
2026-09-05	$7.02	$11,386,972,876	10 / 14
2026-09-06	$7.02	$11,386,972,876	10 / 14
2026-09-07	$7.02	$11,386,972,876	10 / 14
2026-09-08	$7.02	$11,386,972,876	10 / 14
2026-09-09	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-10	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-11	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-12	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-13	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-14	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-15	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-16	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-17	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-18	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-19	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-20	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-21	$7.02	$11,386,971,449	10 / 14
2026-09-22	$7.04	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-09-23	$7.04	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-09-24	$7.04	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-09-25	$7.04	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-09-26	$7.04	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-09-27	$7.04	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-09-28	$7.04	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-09-29	$7.04	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-09-30	$7.05	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-10-01	$7.05	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-10-02	$7.05	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-10-03	$7.05	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-10-04	$7.05	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-10-05	$7.05	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-10-06	$7.05	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-10-07	$7.05	$11,394,974,903	10 / 14
2026-10-08	$7.05	$11,390,397,277	10 / 14
2026-10-09	$7.05	$11,390,397,277	10 / 14
2026-10-10	$7.05	$11,390,397,277	10 / 14
2026-10-11	$7.05	$11,390,397,277	10 / 14
2026-10-12	$7.05	$11,390,397,277	10 / 14
2026-10-13	$7.05	$11,390,397,277	10 / 14
2026-10-14	$7.05	$11,390,397,277	10 / 14
2026-10-15	$7.05	$11,390,397,277	10 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	19	7
2026-06-01	20	6
2026-07-01	21	5
2026-08-01	22	4
2026-09-01	22	3
2026-10-01	22	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysSep 30 · prior Aug 20

$198.00 → $199.00+0.5%

$0$109.45$218.90

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective capital allocation to support growth and shareholder valueQualitative condition
Management delivers on financial performance goalsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 3% per yearRevenue growth: 4.65%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

American Tower outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and operational excellence. The current thesis state is intact, although management faces volatility and sector headwinds.

What's priced into American Tower

Valuation is stretched compared to peers, indicating that the market has high expectations for AMT's performance. There is a moderate expectations gap, suggesting that while the company is performing well, any negative surprises could impact sentiment significantly.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, supported by ongoing revenue growth and disciplined capital allocation. However, the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which introduces some risk.

What American Tower hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver consistent performance. Additionally, external factors such as potential Fed rate cuts and the performance of sector peers will play a crucial role in shaping outcomes.