Ameriprise Financial (AMP)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$500.80-0.35%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ameriprise Financial’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

51.67 → 51.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Assets under management grow to $1.7 trillion, up 4% YoY	Ameriprise grows assets under management to $1.7 trillion, up 12% in 2026-Q1.	Intact	YoY asset growth falls below 4% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Assets under management, administration and advisement grew from $1.5 trillion in 2024-Q3 to a record $1.8 trillion in 2026-Q2, a 14% increase. Total client assets also grew from $1.0 trillion to $1.2 trillion in the same period. Management consistently emphasized asset growth and advisor productivity, and the financials show delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Return capital to shareholders at about 88% of operating earnings	It returns 88% of operating earnings to shareholders, about $936 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Capital return falls below 80% of operating earnings next year	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Capital returned to shareholders ranged from 81% in 2025-Q2 to 101% in 2025-Q4 of adjusted operating earnings, with $932 million returned in 2026-Q2 (91%). Management consistently emphasized strong capital return, and the financials confirm sustained delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Earnings per share remain above $9.81 in 2026	Earnings per share remain strong near $44 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $9.81 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $11.98 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9.81 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202611.98 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2fbd268b-baa5-47d6-b83d-16273888d686. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operational efficiency to support profitability	A supporting condition in Ameriprise Financial's published investment case. The stated target is Show measurable progress in operational efficiency by end of 2026.	Intact	No improvement in operational efficiency by end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. General and administrative expenses increased modestly from $435 million in 2025-Q2 to $463 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting volume-related expenses and investments for growth including AI. Management consistently emphasized operational efficiency initiatives, and the financials show disciplined expense management with modest increases aligned with growth investments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$51.58

$49.85 → $51.58 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$20.99B

$20.69B → $20.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$49.85	$20,687,561,500	13 / 8
2026-07-25	$50.39	$20,984,711,500	13 / 8
2026-07-26	$50.39	$20,984,711,500	13 / 8
2026-07-27	$50.72	$20,894,530,225	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$50.72	$21,017,336,500	13 / 8
2026-07-29	$51.32	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-07-30	$51.32	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-07-31	$51.32	$21,013,208,395	8 / 6
2026-08-01	$51.32	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-02	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-03	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-04	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-05	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-06	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-07	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 6
2026-08-08	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-09	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-10	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-11	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-12	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-13	$51.54	$21,150,998,860	13 / 7
2026-08-14	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 6
2026-08-15	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 6
2026-08-16	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 6
2026-08-17	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 6
2026-08-18	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 6
2026-08-19	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 6
2026-08-20	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 6
2026-08-21	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 7
2026-08-22	$51.54	$21,013,208,395	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-08-26	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-08-27	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-08-28	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-08-29	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-08-30	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-08-31	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-01	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-02	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-03	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-04	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-05	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-06	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-07	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-08	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-09	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-10	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-11	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-12	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-13	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-14	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-15	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-16	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-17	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-18	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-19	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-20	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-21	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-22	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-23	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-24	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-25	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-26	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-27	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-28	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-29	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-09-30	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-10-01	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-10-02	$51.67	$21,046,458,395	8 / 7
2026-10-03	$51.57	$21,032,012,520	8 / 7
2026-10-04	$51.57	$21,032,012,520	8 / 7
2026-10-05	$51.78	$21,032,012,520	8 / 7
2026-10-06	$51.62	$21,032,157,165	8 / 7
2026-10-07	$51.69	$21,139,137,520	8 / 7
2026-10-08	$51.74	$21,139,137,520	8 / 7
2026-10-09	$51.74	$21,139,137,520	8 / 7
2026-10-10	$51.64	$21,062,964,188	8 / 7
2026-10-11	$51.64	$21,062,964,188	8 / 7
2026-10-12	$51.64	$21,062,964,188	8 / 7
2026-10-13	$51.58	$20,986,858,700	8 / 7
2026-10-14	$51.58	$20,986,864,188	8 / 7
2026-10-15	$51.58	$20,986,864,188	8 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	7	1
2026-06-01	6	7	1
2026-07-01	6	8	1
2026-08-01	5	8	1
2026-09-01	5	8	1
2026-10-01	5	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Jul 10

$489.00 → $483.00-1.2%

Capital One FinancialOct 6

$520.00New observation · no comparable prior

Raymond JamesOct 5 · prior Aug 21

$638.00 → $570.00-10.7%

$0$350.90$701.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Assets under management grow to $1.7 trillion, up 4% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Return capital to shareholders at about 88% of operating earningsRequired source inputs unavailable
Earnings per share remain above $9.81 in 2026Diluted EPS: $11.98 per share
Improve operational efficiency to support profitabilityDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ameriprise Financial outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a long-term thesis on a stable financial services company. AMP has demonstrated robust earnings quality and management stability, but it operates in a sector facing challenges, which could impact future performance.

What's priced into Ameriprise Financial

The market currently reflects a neutral valuation for AMP, with expectations closely aligned with its recent performance. It is priced relatively cheaply compared to peers, indicating that investors may not expect significant growth in the near term.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, supported by management's focus on growing assets and returning capital to shareholders. However, there is a moderate risk of missing earnings expectations, given the company's history and the industry's overall volatility.

What Ameriprise Financial hinges on

The thesis hinges on AMP's ability to maintain its growth trajectory in assets under management and the overall performance of the financial sector. Key factors include guidance from management in upcoming calls and the performance of sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR.