Amgen (AMGN)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-15

$432.49-0.35%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Amgen’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

24.42 → 24.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Debt management to fund growth	The company manages capital well, increasing debt strategically to fund growth.	Intact	Debt falls significantly below $54B without clear capital plan	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance increased from about $2.3B in 2025-Q4 to $2.6B in 2026-Q2. Share repurchase authorization rose from $0.5B in 2025 to $3.0B in 2026. Debt outstanding rose from $54.6B at end 2025 to $57.3B at 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on disciplined capital allocation with active debt management. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS near guidance mid-point	Profit margins stay stable with EPS guidance near $16.36 for 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $15.62 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $4.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $16.36 in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20264.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 79952a8e-5434-4b0a-a39e-f1a3504a20fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain marketing rights for key rare-disease drug	Recent court wins support key drug revenues.	Intact	Marketing authorization revoked for key rare-disease drug	No revocation reported News shows positive Phase 3 results for dazodalibep and no regulatory actions against key drugs. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Total revenues grew from $8.2B in 2025-Q1 to $10.1B in 2026-Q2, with six key growth drivers growing 26% year over year in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes innovation and pipeline advancement, and the trajectory is delivering sustained growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth through innovation	A primary condition in Amgen's published investment case. The stated target is >= $37.8B revenue in FY26.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $36B in FY26	Revenue: $10.054B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $37.8B revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202610,054,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 79952a8e-5434-4b0a-a39e-f1a3504a20fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Total revenues grew from $8.2B in 2025-Q1 to $10.1B in 2026-Q2, with six key growth drivers growing 26% year over year in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes innovation and pipeline advancement, and the trajectory is delivering sustained growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$24.51

$23.46 → $24.51 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$40.45B

$38.69B → $40.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$23.46	$38,689,934,970	31 / 29
2026-07-25	$23.46	$38,689,934,970	31 / 29
2026-07-26	$23.46	$38,689,934,970	31 / 29
2026-07-27	$23.44	$38,764,673,832	19 / 22
2026-07-28	$23.46	$38,689,934,970	31 / 29
2026-07-29	$23.44	$38,663,107,390	31 / 29
2026-07-30	$23.44	$38,663,107,390	31 / 29
2026-07-31	$23.44	$38,661,176,350	31 / 29
2026-08-01	$23.44	$38,661,176,350	31 / 29
2026-08-02	$23.44	$38,661,176,350	31 / 29
2026-08-03	$23.44	$38,661,176,350	31 / 29
2026-08-04	$23.44	$38,661,176,350	31 / 29
2026-08-05	$23.44	$38,661,176,350	31 / 29
2026-08-06	$23.44	$38,661,176,350	31 / 29
2026-08-07	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-08	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-09	$24.01	$39,610,042,210	32 / 30
2026-08-10	$24.01	$39,610,042,210	32 / 30
2026-08-11	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-12	$24.22	$39,938,363,890	33 / 31
2026-08-13	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-14	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-15	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-16	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-17	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-18	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-19	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-20	$23.94	$39,635,689,075	19 / 23
2026-08-21	$24.42	$40,291,689,654	19 / 24
2026-08-22	$24.42	$40,291,689,654	19 / 24
2026-08-23	$24.42	$40,291,689,654	19 / 24
2026-08-24	$24.42	$40,291,689,654	19 / 24
2026-08-25	$24.42	$40,291,689,654	19 / 24
2026-08-26	$24.42	$40,291,689,654	19 / 24
2026-08-27	$24.42	$40,291,689,654	19 / 24
2026-08-28	$24.42	$40,291,689,654	19 / 24
2026-08-29	$24.42	$40,293,148,275	19 / 24
2026-08-30	$24.42	$40,293,148,275	19 / 24
2026-08-31	$24.42	$40,293,148,275	19 / 24
2026-09-01	$24.42	$40,293,148,275	19 / 24
2026-09-02	$24.42	$40,293,148,275	19 / 24
2026-09-03	$24.42	$40,293,132,737	19 / 24
2026-09-04	$24.42	$40,293,132,737	19 / 24
2026-09-05	$24.43	$40,305,272,413	19 / 24
2026-09-06	$24.43	$40,303,824,137	19 / 24
2026-09-07	$24.43	$40,303,823,447	19 / 24
2026-09-08	$24.43	$40,303,824,137	19 / 24
2026-09-09	$24.42	$40,334,102,768	19 / 24
2026-09-10	$24.42	$40,334,102,768	19 / 24
2026-09-11	$24.42	$40,332,840,792	20 / 24
2026-09-12	$24.42	$40,332,840,792	20 / 24
2026-09-13	$24.42	$40,332,840,792	20 / 24
2026-09-14	$24.42	$40,332,840,792	20 / 24
2026-09-15	$24.42	$40,332,840,792	20 / 24
2026-09-16	$24.42	$40,332,840,792	20 / 24
2026-09-17	$24.40	$40,351,917,957	20 / 24
2026-09-18	$24.40	$40,351,917,957	20 / 24
2026-09-19	$24.42	$40,332,324,230	20 / 24
2026-09-20	$24.42	$40,332,324,230	20 / 24
2026-09-21	$24.42	$40,332,324,230	20 / 24
2026-09-22	$24.42	$40,332,334,212	20 / 24
2026-09-23	$24.42	$40,332,340,478	20 / 24
2026-09-24	$24.43	$40,337,443,237	20 / 24
2026-09-25	$24.45	$40,355,443,237	20 / 24
2026-09-26	$24.45	$40,355,443,237	20 / 24
2026-09-27	$24.45	$40,355,443,237	20 / 24
2026-09-28	$24.45	$40,355,443,237	20 / 24
2026-09-29	$24.45	$40,355,443,237	20 / 24
2026-09-30	$24.45	$40,355,443,237	20 / 24
2026-10-01	$24.45	$40,355,443,237	20 / 24
2026-10-02	$24.45	$40,355,429,444	20 / 24
2026-10-03	$24.45	$40,355,429,444	20 / 24
2026-10-04	$24.45	$40,355,429,444	20 / 24
2026-10-05	$24.45	$40,355,429,444	20 / 24
2026-10-06	$24.45	$40,355,429,444	20 / 24
2026-10-07	$24.45	$40,355,429,444	20 / 24
2026-10-08	$24.47	$40,386,278,747	20 / 24
2026-10-09	$24.49	$40,401,375,299	20 / 24
2026-10-10	$24.49	$40,408,128,259	20 / 24
2026-10-11	$24.49	$40,408,128,259	20 / 24
2026-10-12	$24.49	$40,408,128,259	20 / 24
2026-10-13	$24.50	$40,434,055,190	20 / 24
2026-10-14	$24.51	$40,449,935,282	19 / 23
2026-10-15	$24.51	$40,449,935,282	19 / 23

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	19	3
2026-06-01	14	18	3
2026-07-01	14	17	3
2026-08-01	15	17	4
2026-09-01	14	18	5
2026-10-01	12	17	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 17 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades9 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 9 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

GuggenheimOct 13 · prior Aug 10

$388.00 → $378.00-2.6%

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Sep 4

$435.00 → $430.00-1.1%

BMO CapitalOct 12 · prior Aug 5

$450.00 → $415.00-7.8%

RBC CapitalOct 8 · prior Aug 5

$400.00 → $430.00+7.5%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 8 · prior Aug 18

$400.00 → $440.00+10.0%

Truist FinancialOct 7

$380.00New observation · no comparable prior

ScotiabankSep 28 · prior Aug 5

$450.00 → $500.00+11.1%

JefferiesSep 23

$410.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSSep 17 · prior Jul 13

$420.00 → $430.00+2.4%

$0$275.00$550.00

4 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Debt management to fund growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS near guidance mid-pointPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth through innovationPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Amgen outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder, focusing on long-term growth through innovation. The current thesis state is stable, with management emphasizing revenue growth and disciplined capital allocation.

What's priced into Amgen

The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on AMGN, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap of 0.19, indicating that some growth is already factored into the stock's current valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, given the recent revenue growth and ongoing clinical trials. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for guidance cuts and broader economic concerns affecting the healthcare sector.

What Amgen hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth through innovation and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, any shifts in economic indicators, such as employment data, could impact sentiment and performance.