Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$528.75-5.95%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Advanced Micro Devices’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

15.84 → 16.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 32 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 32 to 32; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Data Center segment revenue growth to sustain AI infrastructure expansion	Data center revenue rose 57% to $5.8 billion.	Intact	Data Center revenue falls below $3.7B (2025-Q1 level) in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Data Center segment revenue grew from $3.2B in 2025-Q2 to $6.7B in 2026-Q2, more than doubling (+107%). AMD's Q3 2026 revenue guidance of ~$13B implies continued strong growth (+41% YoY). Management consistently emphasizes AI infrastructure growth driven by AMD Helios, Instinct GPUs, and EPYC CPUs, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Gross profit growth from new CPUs, GPUs, and AI solutions	Gross profit grew from $3.7 billion to $5.4 billion in one year.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $3.7B (2025-Q1 level) in any quarter	Gross profit: $6.203B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.4B gross profit by 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 20266,203,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 49565224-287f-4f9c-b256-86e41a568f16. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. AMD has consistently launched and expanded AI-optimized product lines including AMD Helios rackscale solutions, Instinct MI400 Series GPUs, 6th Gen EPYC CPUs, Ryzen AI processors, and embedded AI products. These product introductions align with management's stated focus on AI-optimized CPUs and GPUs, showing ongoing delivery of new AI-capable hardware. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth driven by expanding strategic partnerships	Strategic partnerships and product innovation drive growth.	Intact	Total revenue falls below $7.4B (2025-Q1 level) in any quarter	Revenue: $11.536B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.3B total revenue by 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202611,536,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 49565224-287f-4f9c-b256-86e41a568f16. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain gross margin near 56% as guided	A supporting condition in Advanced Micro Devices's published investment case. The stated target is 56% gross margin.	Improving	Gross margin falls below 54% in 2026-Q2	Gross margin: 53.77% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 56% gross margin. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 202653.770804 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 49565224-287f-4f9c-b256-86e41a568f16. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$16.04

$13.52 → $16.04 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$90.17B

$78.11B → $90.17B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.52	$78,110,810,111	29 / 36
2026-07-25	$13.52	$78,110,810,111	29 / 36
2026-07-26	$13.69	$78,902,515,333	29 / 36
2026-07-27	$13.69	$78,902,515,333	29 / 36
2026-07-28	$13.69	$78,902,515,333	29 / 36
2026-07-29	$13.75	$79,271,175,333	29 / 36
2026-07-30	$13.75	$79,271,175,333	29 / 36
2026-07-31	$13.75	$79,271,175,333	29 / 36
2026-08-01	$13.75	$79,271,175,333	29 / 36
2026-08-02	$13.79	$79,407,395,333	29 / 36
2026-08-03	$13.79	$79,407,395,333	29 / 36
2026-08-04	$13.87	$79,787,776,643	29 / 36
2026-08-05	$13.87	$79,787,776,643	29 / 36
2026-08-06	$13.87	$79,787,776,643	29 / 36
2026-08-07	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-08	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-09	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-10	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-11	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-12	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-13	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-14	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-15	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-16	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-17	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-18	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-19	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-20	$15.10	$86,092,043,224	29 / 36
2026-08-21	$15.71	$88,565,838,788	30 / 37
2026-08-22	$15.72	$88,658,433,915	30 / 38
2026-08-23	$15.74	$88,820,109,621	30 / 38
2026-08-24	$15.74	$88,820,109,621	30 / 38
2026-08-25	$15.74	$88,820,109,621	30 / 38
2026-08-26	$15.71	$88,725,155,455	31 / 39
2026-08-27	$15.71	$88,725,155,455	31 / 39
2026-08-28	$15.71	$88,725,155,455	31 / 39
2026-08-29	$15.73	$88,837,086,705	31 / 39
2026-08-30	$15.73	$88,837,086,705	31 / 39
2026-08-31	$15.73	$88,837,086,705	31 / 39
2026-09-01	$15.73	$88,837,086,705	31 / 39
2026-09-02	$15.73	$88,837,086,705	31 / 39
2026-09-03	$15.73	$88,837,086,705	31 / 39
2026-09-04	$15.73	$88,837,086,705	31 / 39
2026-09-05	$15.73	$88,837,094,463	31 / 39
2026-09-06	$15.73	$88,837,094,463	31 / 39
2026-09-07	$15.73	$88,837,094,463	31 / 39
2026-09-08	$15.73	$88,837,094,463	31 / 39
2026-09-09	$15.73	$88,935,218,526	31 / 39
2026-09-10	$15.56	$88,935,218,526	31 / 39
2026-09-11	$15.75	$88,953,050,801	31 / 39
2026-09-12	$15.84	$88,953,050,801	31 / 40
2026-09-13	$15.84	$88,953,050,801	32 / 40
2026-09-14	$15.84	$88,953,050,801	32 / 40
2026-09-15	$15.84	$88,953,050,801	32 / 40
2026-09-16	$15.88	$89,105,989,785	32 / 40
2026-09-17	$15.88	$89,105,989,785	32 / 40
2026-09-18	$15.88	$89,105,989,785	32 / 40
2026-09-19	$15.88	$89,105,989,785	32 / 40
2026-09-20	$15.88	$89,359,173,250	32 / 40
2026-09-21	$15.88	$89,359,173,250	32 / 40
2026-09-22	$15.88	$89,359,173,250	32 / 40
2026-09-23	$15.88	$89,359,173,627	32 / 40
2026-09-24	$15.88	$89,359,173,627	32 / 40
2026-09-25	$15.88	$89,359,173,627	32 / 40
2026-09-26	$15.90	$89,386,465,498	32 / 40
2026-09-27	$15.90	$89,386,465,498	32 / 40
2026-09-28	$15.90	$89,386,465,498	32 / 40
2026-09-29	$15.90	$89,386,465,498	32 / 40
2026-09-30	$15.88	$89,276,818,560	32 / 40
2026-10-01	$15.88	$89,276,818,560	32 / 40
2026-10-02	$15.88	$89,276,818,560	32 / 40
2026-10-03	$15.89	$89,417,349,172	32 / 40
2026-10-04	$15.89	$89,417,349,172	32 / 40
2026-10-05	$15.89	$89,417,349,172	32 / 40
2026-10-06	$16.03	$90,106,234,407	32 / 40
2026-10-07	$16.03	$90,106,234,407	32 / 40
2026-10-08	$16.04	$90,167,458,896	32 / 40
2026-10-09	$16.04	$90,167,458,896	32 / 40
2026-10-10	$16.04	$90,167,458,896	32 / 40
2026-10-11	$16.04	$90,167,458,896	32 / 39
2026-10-12	$16.04	$90,167,458,896	32 / 39
2026-10-13	$16.04	$90,167,458,896	32 / 39
2026-10-14	$16.04	$90,167,458,896	32 / 39
2026-10-15	$16.04	$90,167,560,937	32 / 39

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	42	14
2026-06-01	42	10
2026-07-01	42	10
2026-08-01	44	11
2026-09-01	44	11
2026-10-01	44	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 44 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 6 · prior Jul 27

$625.00 → $705.00+12.8%

Stifel NicolausOct 5 · prior Jul 10

$635.00 → $700.00+10.2%

Truist FinancialSep 25 · prior Aug 5

$594.00 → $720.00+21.2%

$0$396.00$792.00

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Data Center segment revenue growth to sustain AI infrastructure expansionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Gross profit growth from new CPUs, GPUs, and AI solutionsGross profit: $6.203B
Revenue growth driven by expanding strategic partnershipsRevenue: $11.536B
Sustain gross margin near 56% as guidedGross margin: 53.77%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Advanced Micro Devices outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity, particularly in the AI and cloud sectors. The current thesis state is intact, driven by strong financial performance and management's commitment to AI-related initiatives.

What's priced into Advanced Micro Devices

The market currently reflects an expensive valuation compared to peers, indicating that investors expect continued strong performance. However, there is a low fragility tier, suggesting that while the valuation is high, it is not overly sensitive to negative developments.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, supported by management's focus on AI infrastructure and recent revenue growth. There is a low probability of missing guidance, but the overall industry has seen some misses recently, which could pose a risk.

What Advanced Micro Devices hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, guidance updates from AMD, and performance from key sector peers like NVDA and TSM. Positive developments in these areas could bolster AMD's position.