Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AMC Global Media, Inc. (AMCX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-15
$10.15-6.19%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.40 → 2.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflowThree key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate positive cash from operations | A supporting condition in AMC Global Media, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $67.5M in Q1 2027. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $67.5M next quarter | Cash from operations: $57.192M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $67.5M in Q1 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202657,192,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving profitability and stabilizing revenue. The current thesis state is intact, but management's execution remains volatile.
The market currently prices AMCX as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors are not overly optimistic. Valuation has improved recently, suggesting some positive sentiment is being factored in.
Fundamentals show robust earnings quality but mixed results in operating income and cash flow management. The near-term risk is elevated due to a higher probability of an earnings miss, following a trend of consecutive misses.
The thesis hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts and performance from sector leaders like NFLX and DIS. Positive momentum in these areas could support AMCX, while negative trends could pose risks.
In the next 1 to 3 years, AMCX's performance will depend on management's ability to execute its priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 5 quarters. Cash from operations declined from $108.8M in 2025-Q1 to $67.5M in 2026-Q1. Management announced share buyback and early debt refinancing in 2026, indicating active capital allocation management. The trajectory shows mixed progress with positive cash flow but declining trend.
Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026Return to positive operating income | AMC Networks is improving its operating income. | Intact | operating income falls below $15.9M next quarter | Operating income: $15.854M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $31.3M in Q1 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202615,854,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b5299fb2-05f4-47a7-a141-86dc9dbe3774. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income improved significantly from a loss of $50.9M in 2025-Q4 to positive $31.3M in 2026-Q1, then declined to $15.9M in 2026-Q2. Net losses narrowed from $55.5M in 2025-Q4 to $18.9M in 2026-Q1 but increased slightly to $21.9M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows partial delivery with improvement from losses but recent operating income decline indicates mixed progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Maintain quarterly revenue between $540M and $600M | A supporting condition in AMC Global Media, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $540M in Q4 2026. | Intact | quarterly revenue falls below $540M next quarter | Revenue: $547.495M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $540M in Q4 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026547,495,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b5299fb2-05f4-47a7-a141-86dc9dbe3774. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Quarterly revenue has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between $542.1M in 2026-Q1 and $600.0M in 2025-Q2. This indicates management is maintaining revenue within the targeted range, showing delivery on revenue stability. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.41 → $2.28 · observed estimates
$2.41B → $2.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.41 | $2,410,077,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.40 | $2,410,017,635 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.40 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.40 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.40 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.40 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.40 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.40 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.48 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.48 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.48 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.48 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.48 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.38 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.28 | $2,410,019,378 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.