Allegion (ALLE)

NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$156.54+0.51%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Allegion’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.78 → 9.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EPS near $8.8 in 2026	A primary condition in Allegion's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.7 USD per share.	Intact	adjusted EPS falls below $8.7 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EPS grew from $7.44 in 2025 to an expected $8.85 to $9.00 in 2026. Diluted EPS for first half 2026 was $3.74, up from $3.56 in first half 2025. Management has consistently raised and affirmed EPS outlook, indicating delivery and positive earnings trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Execute share repurchase program up to $500 million	The company earns about $8.8 per share in 2026 and buys back shares with a $500 million program.	Intact	share repurchase program is canceled or materially reduced	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 7% annually	A primary condition in Allegion's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 12.67% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202612.671233 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d45d6f7c-c479-40c5-9415-9751dd3cff28. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.80

$9.58 → $9.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.63B

$4.60B → $4.63B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.58	$4,598,756,060	11 / 10
2026-07-25	$9.70	$4,626,542,390	11 / 11
2026-07-26	$9.70	$4,626,542,390	11 / 11
2026-07-27	$9.72	$4,623,610,854	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$9.72	$4,628,493,090	11 / 11
2026-07-29	$9.72	$4,628,493,090	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$9.72	$4,628,555,320	11 / 11
2026-07-31	$9.72	$4,629,046,230	11 / 11
2026-08-01	$9.72	$4,629,046,230	11 / 11
2026-08-02	$9.72	$4,629,002,520	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$9.72	$4,629,002,520	11 / 11
2026-08-04	$9.72	$4,629,002,520	11 / 11
2026-08-05	$9.72	$4,629,002,520	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$9.72	$4,629,002,520	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$9.72	$4,624,150,854	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$9.72	$4,629,002,520	11 / 11
2026-08-09	$9.72	$4,629,002,520	11 / 11
2026-08-10	$9.72	$4,629,002,520	11 / 11
2026-08-11	$9.75	$4,631,419,360	11 / 11
2026-08-12	$9.75	$4,631,419,360	11 / 11
2026-08-13	$9.75	$4,631,419,360	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$9.72	$4,624,150,854	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$9.72	$4,624,150,854	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$9.72	$4,624,150,854	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$9.72	$4,624,150,854	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$9.72	$4,624,150,854	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$9.72	$4,624,150,854	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$9.72	$4,624,150,854	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$9.76	$4,626,865,584	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$9.76	$4,626,865,584	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$9.78	$4,633,775,652	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$9.78	$4,634,215,652	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$9.78	$4,633,815,652	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$9.78	$4,633,815,652	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$9.78	$4,633,815,652	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$9.78	$4,633,815,652	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$9.78	$4,633,815,652	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$9.78	$4,633,815,652	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$9.78	$4,633,815,652	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$9.80	$4,632,603,431	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$9.80	$4,632,603,431	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$9.80	$4,632,603,431	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$9.80	$4,632,603,431	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$9.80	$4,632,603,431	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$9.80	$4,632,603,431	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$9.80	$4,632,603,431	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$9.80	$4,632,603,431	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$9.80	$4,632,603,431	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$9.80	$4,632,616,461	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$9.80	$4,634,906,393	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$9.80	$4,634,906,393	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$9.80	$4,634,906,393	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$9.80	$4,634,906,393	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$9.80	$4,634,906,393	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$9.80	$4,634,906,393	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	9
2026-06-01	5	9
2026-07-01	5	7
2026-08-01	4	7
2026-09-01	5	7
2026-10-01	6	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Evercore ISISep 22

$180.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$99.00$198.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EPS near $8.8 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Execute share repurchase program up to $500 millionRequired source inputs unavailable
Sustain revenue growth near 7% annuallyRevenue growth: 12.67%

Next proof point

Oct 22, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Allegion outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable growth opportunity within the Industrials sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's consistent execution on revenue and earnings growth, despite some recent challenges.

What's priced into Allegion

The valuation of ALLE is considered cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, but not to an extreme degree.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) outlooks, which have shown positive growth trends. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, as the company has faced misses in recent quarters.

What Allegion hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like MSA, BCO, and GEO. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for ALLE, while any negative guidance from them could pose a risk.