Alkermes plc (ALKS)

NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$43.63-1.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alkermes plc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-10.5% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.61 → 0.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	471.78M
EPS	—	-0.095
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	-0.542
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.93B
EPS	—	0.545

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve operating cash flow from negative $165.7M	A supporting condition in Alkermes plc's published investment case. The stated target is Operating cash flow improves to positive by FY27.	Improving	Operating cash flow remains negative beyond FY27	Cash from operations: $145.183M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow improves to positive by FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026145,183,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
File supplemental NDA for LUMRYZ by end of 2026	They plan to advance LUMRYZ for sleep disorder.	Intact	Failure to file sNDA for LUMRYZ by end 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $1.735 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Alkermes plc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.735B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.5B in FY26	Revenue: $496.009M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.735B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026496,009,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dfaff6f9-8906-4520-9e97-b48af2ae3277. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.55

Unavailable → $0.55 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.93B

$1.89B → $1.93B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,888,654,330	4 / 17
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,888,654,330	4 / 17
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,888,654,330	4 / 17
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,888,654,330	4 / 17
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,888,654,330	4 / 17
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,888,654,330	4 / 17
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,891,795,510	4 / 17
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-07	$0.68	$1,944,828,008	8 / 13
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,944,583,430	4 / 17
2026-08-14	$0.68	$1,944,828,008	8 / 13
2026-08-15	$0.68	$1,944,828,008	8 / 13
2026-08-16	$0.68	$1,944,828,008	8 / 13
2026-08-17	$0.68	$1,944,828,008	8 / 13
2026-08-18	$0.68	$1,944,828,008	8 / 13
2026-08-19	$0.68	$1,944,828,008	8 / 13
2026-08-20	$0.68	$1,944,828,008	8 / 13
2026-08-21	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-22	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-23	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-24	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-25	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-26	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-27	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-28	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-29	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-30	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-08-31	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-09-01	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-09-02	$0.65	$1,936,474,951	8 / 13
2026-09-03	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-04	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-05	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-06	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-07	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-08	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-09	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-10	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-11	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-12	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-13	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-14	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-15	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-16	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-17	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-18	$0.68	$1,928,731,229	8 / 13
2026-09-19	$0.68	$1,928,748,508	8 / 13
2026-09-20	$0.68	$1,928,748,508	8 / 13
2026-09-21	$0.68	$1,928,748,508	8 / 13
2026-09-22	$0.61	$1,928,731,296	8 / 13
2026-09-23	$0.61	$1,928,731,296	8 / 13
2026-09-24	$0.61	$1,928,731,296	8 / 13
2026-09-25	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-09-26	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-09-27	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-09-28	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-09-29	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-09-30	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-10-01	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-10-02	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-10-03	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-10-04	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-10-05	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-10-06	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-10-07	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-10-08	$0.53	$1,926,722,690	8 / 13
2026-10-09	$0.54	$1,927,128,662	8 / 13
2026-10-10	$0.54	$1,927,015,494	8 / 13
2026-10-11	$0.54	$1,927,015,494	8 / 13
2026-10-12	$0.54	$1,927,015,494	8 / 13
2026-10-13	$0.54	$1,927,015,494	8 / 13
2026-10-14	$0.54	$1,927,015,494	8 / 13
2026-10-15	$0.54	$1,927,015,494	8 / 13
2026-10-16	$0.54	$1,927,015,494	8 / 13
2026-10-17	$0.54	$1,927,015,494	8 / 13
2026-10-18	$0.55	$1,929,250,289	9 / 14
2026-10-19	$0.55	$1,929,250,289	9 / 14
2026-10-20	$0.55	$1,929,250,289	9 / 14
2026-10-21	$0.55	$1,929,183,622	9 / 14
2026-10-22	$0.55	$1,929,183,622	9 / 14
2026-10-23	$0.55	$1,929,183,622	9 / 14
2026-10-24	$0.55	$1,929,183,622	9 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	3	0
2026-06-01	14	3	1
2026-07-01	14	3	1
2026-08-01	14	3	1
2026-09-01	14	4	1
2026-10-01	15	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 16

$55.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$30.25$60.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve operating cash flow from negative $165.7MCash from operations: $145.183M
File supplemental NDA for LUMRYZ by end of 2026Qualitative condition
Revenue reaches about $1.735 billion in 2026Revenue: $496.009M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alkermes plc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ALKS is a commercial-growth and clinical-development business, with a multi-year view that depends on both its existing medicines and pipeline programs. The thesis remains intact, though the recent signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and management execution has been volatile.

What's priced into Alkermes plc

The shares trade at a substantial premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable business strength. The estimated gap between expectations and the evidence is small, and the evidence labels this valuation as justified, but confidence in that assessment is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and higher adjusted EBITDA support the business, while GAAP net income has been volatile. Over the multi-year view, clinical progress includes phase 3 programs and a planned filing for LUMRYZ by the end of 2026, but the next guidance update and erratic earnings results remain risks.

What Alkermes plc hinges on

The thesis depends on continued commercial growth and progress in clinical programs, including the planned LUMRYZ filing and later data from the ALKS 7290 study. Near-term risks include a guidance cut and weaker employment data, while continued strength among healthcare peers could support sector momentum.