Alight, Inc. (ALIT)

NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.58-0.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alight, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	570.25M
EPS	—	2.484
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.09B
EPS	—	4.768
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.98B
EPS	—	4.776

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $80M to $90M for Q2 2026	A supporting condition in Alight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 80 to 90 USD millions.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $80 million in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow of at least $250M in full year 2026	Free cash flow is expected around $40 million for Q2 and $250 million for the full year 2026.	Improving	Free cash flow falls below $250 million in 2026	Free cash flow: $48M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=250 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202648,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize management with successful CFO transition	The CFO transition and share buyback plan improve financial stability.	Improving	Further CFO or key executive departures occur in 2026	CFO stable (no departure reported) News and events show no CFO exit; CEO transition and earnings beat noted, but CFO remains in position. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue guidance of $490M to $505M for Q2 2026	A primary condition in Alight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 490 to 505 USD millions.	Intact	Revenue falls below $490 million in Q2 2026	Revenue: $511M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 490 to 505 USD millions. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 2026511,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 363f18d6-99c7-4a37-a1e1-8ba491d8ef55. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$2.15B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,148,073,570	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,054,510,810	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,054,510,810	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,054,510,810	4 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$2,054,510,810	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,040,130,810	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,040,130,810	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	4	1
2026-06-01	2	4	1
2026-07-01	2	3	1
2026-08-01	2	3	1
2026-09-01	2	3	1
2026-10-01	1	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $80M to $90M for Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Generate free cash flow of at least $250M in full year 2026Free cash flow: $48M
Achieve revenue guidance of $490M to $505M for Q2 2026Revenue: $511M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-87.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alight, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making business with volatile management signals, rather than a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: the recent signal shifted to mixed, and performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Alight, Inc.

ALIT is described as cheap versus peers, with a modest peer premium also recorded, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low; the evidence does not show a strongly fragile setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined from the first to the second quarter of 2026, but management says both remain aligned with full-year guidance. Free cash flow reached $101 million year to date against a $250 million annual target, making progress but leaving execution to track. A guidance cut would be a meaningful risk, while recent earnings results included a beat and the CEO transition adds management uncertainty.

What Alight, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether ALIT meets its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance and reaches its free cash flow target. A guidance cut would weaken the thesis; rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.