Align Technology (ALGN)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$147.31-1.36%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Align Technology’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.54 → 12.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete $200 million stock buyback by October 2026	The company buys back $200 million in stock.	Intact	stock buyback program is halted or materially reduced	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Invest $125 million to $150 million in capital expenditures in 2026	A supporting condition in Align Technology's published investment case. The stated target is $125M to $150M capex.	Intact	capital spending falls below $125 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $30.785M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $125M to $150M capex. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202630,785,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently guided capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $125 million and $150 million, reflecting disciplined investment in technology upgrades and manufacturing capacity. This guidance is stable and aligned with prior statements. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Improve GAAP operating margin to slightly below 18% in 2026	A primary condition in Align Technology's published investment case. The stated target is operating margin ~17.6%.	Improving	operating margin falls below 14% in FY26	Operating margin: 14.58% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating margin ~17.6%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202614.581913 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a6b41a2f-ece7-4e55-b7a7-5ecdef6881b4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow revenue 3% to 4% in 2026	A primary condition in Align Technology's published investment case. The stated target is 3% to 4% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 4.32% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 3% to 4% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20264.320514 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a6b41a2f-ece7-4e55-b7a7-5ecdef6881b4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.999 billion in 2024 to $4.035 billion in 2025 and reached $1.056 billion in Q2 2026, up 4.3% year-over-year. Management reaffirmed 3% to 4% revenue growth guidance for 2026, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.43

$12.38 → $12.43 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.31B

$4.37B → $4.31B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.38	$4,368,044,010	17 / 16
2026-07-25	$12.38	$4,363,373,120	16 / 15
2026-07-26	$12.38	$4,363,373,120	16 / 15
2026-07-27	$12.36	$4,359,123,577	11 / 12
2026-07-28	$12.38	$4,363,373,120	16 / 15
2026-07-29	$12.38	$4,363,373,120	16 / 15
2026-07-30	$12.38	$4,363,313,120	16 / 15
2026-07-31	$12.44	$4,338,327,480	16 / 15
2026-08-01	$12.44	$4,338,327,480	16 / 15
2026-08-02	$12.53	$4,336,542,230	16 / 15
2026-08-03	$12.53	$4,336,542,230	16 / 15
2026-08-04	$12.53	$4,336,542,230	16 / 15
2026-08-05	$12.53	$4,336,542,230	16 / 15
2026-08-06	$12.53	$4,336,542,230	16 / 15
2026-08-07	$12.52	$4,330,932,152	10 / 12
2026-08-08	$12.55	$4,338,695,840	17 / 16
2026-08-09	$12.55	$4,338,695,840	17 / 16
2026-08-10	$12.55	$4,338,695,840	17 / 16
2026-08-11	$12.55	$4,338,695,840	17 / 16
2026-08-12	$12.52	$4,330,932,152	10 / 12
2026-08-13	$12.55	$4,338,695,840	17 / 16
2026-08-14	$12.52	$4,330,932,152	10 / 12
2026-08-15	$12.52	$4,330,932,152	10 / 12
2026-08-16	$12.52	$4,330,932,152	10 / 12
2026-08-17	$12.52	$4,330,932,152	10 / 12
2026-08-18	$12.52	$4,330,932,152	10 / 12
2026-08-19	$12.52	$4,330,932,152	10 / 12
2026-08-20	$12.54	$4,333,621,415	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$12.54	$4,333,621,415	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$12.54	$4,333,621,415	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$12.54	$4,333,621,415	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$12.54	$4,333,621,415	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$12.54	$4,333,621,415	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$12.54	$4,333,621,415	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$12.54	$4,333,621,415	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$12.54	$4,333,621,415	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-06	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-07	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-08	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-09	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-10	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-11	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-12	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-18	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-19	$12.54	$4,333,628,082	10 / 12
2026-09-20	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-21	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-22	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-23	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-24	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-25	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-26	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-27	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-28	$12.54	$4,333,626,322	10 / 12
2026-09-29	$12.49	$4,328,773,044	10 / 12
2026-09-30	$12.49	$4,328,773,044	10 / 12
2026-10-01	$12.49	$4,328,773,044	10 / 12
2026-10-02	$12.49	$4,328,773,044	10 / 12
2026-10-03	$12.49	$4,328,773,044	10 / 12
2026-10-04	$12.49	$4,328,773,044	10 / 12
2026-10-05	$12.49	$4,328,773,044	10 / 12
2026-10-06	$12.46	$4,314,480,186	10 / 12
2026-10-07	$12.46	$4,314,480,186	10 / 12
2026-10-08	$12.46	$4,314,480,186	10 / 12
2026-10-09	$12.46	$4,314,464,708	10 / 12
2026-10-10	$12.46	$4,314,464,708	10 / 12
2026-10-11	$12.43	$4,305,221,851	10 / 12
2026-10-12	$12.43	$4,305,221,851	10 / 12
2026-10-13	$12.43	$4,305,221,851	10 / 12
2026-10-14	$12.43	$4,305,221,851	10 / 12
2026-10-15	$12.43	$4,305,221,851	10 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	4	1
2026-06-01	11	4	1
2026-07-01	12	5	1
2026-08-01	11	6	1
2026-09-01	11	5	1
2026-10-01	10	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades2 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Robert W. BairdOct 15

$162.00New observation · no comparable prior

Leerink PartnersOct 14

$215.00New observation · no comparable prior

Stifel NicolausOct 9

$175.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$118.25$236.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete $200 million stock buyback by October 2026Required source inputs unavailable
Invest $125 million to $150 million in capital expenditures in 2026Capital expenditures: $30.785M
Improve GAAP operating margin to slightly below 18% in 2026Operating margin: 14.58%
Grow revenue 3% to 4% in 2026Revenue growth: 4.32%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Align Technology outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth and margin improvement. The current thesis state reflects a strong performance in recent quarters, but it faces risks from external economic factors and recent management transitions.

What's priced into Align Technology

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, with ALGN being viewed as cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully anticipate potential challenges ahead.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth and stock repurchase goals, although operating margin improvements are mixed. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the company has a history of earnings misses that could weigh on sentiment.

What Align Technology hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance, especially in light of potential economic downturns and sector performance. Additionally, the performance of key healthcare sector peers could influence ALGN's momentum.