Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$35.84-1.73%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Allegro MicroSystems grows sales about 23% yearly to $890 million in 2026. Profit margins stay strong near 50%. The company expands in automotive and AI data center markets, with data center sales reaching 14% of Q4 revenue. Management is stable and execution on growth priorities is on track.
The recent sharp 8.9% one-day selloff and 26% drawdown show risk. The company remains loss-making with thin free cash flow. High valuation multiples (PE 135.7) may not sustain if growth slows or margins compress.
The market expects about 22% revenue growth next year, pricing in strong growth. Our fair value is 42% below the Street median, reflecting caution on sustaining high margins and growth. We see risk in stretched valuation and execution.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.19 next quarter
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 48% next quarter
Breaks if: Data center sales share falls below 10% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making but has demonstrated strong revenue growth and improving margins, which supports the long-term thesis.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, but it is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that current performance is largely in line with what investors anticipate.
Management is focused on increasing revenue growth, improving gross profit margins, and expanding into AI data centers and automotive markets. Recent results show strong revenue growth and margin improvement, although the company has a history of earnings misses that could pose risks.
The thesis hinges on key factors such as guidance from management in upcoming calls, potential interest rate cuts from the Fed, and performance from sector leaders like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO. Any negative guidance could significantly impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $890 million in FY26
Continue driving strong sales growth across automotive and industrial markets, leveraging AI data center and electrification trends.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $203.4 million in 2026-Q2 to $259.2 million in 2027-Q1, a 27% year-over-year increase. Management has consistently emphasized sales growth momentum, and the financial results show delivering on this priority.
“We began fiscal 2027 with strong momentum, delivering our sixth consecutive quarter of sales growth.”
“We finished fiscal year 2026 with strong momentum, delivering a fifth consecutive quarter of sales growth at $243 million.”
“We delivered strong third quarter results, with sales of $229 million exceeding the high end of our guidance range.”
“Sales increased 26% year-over-year to $243 million in fourth quarter and 23% for fiscal year 2026.”
Overall, ALGM's fundamentals are showing promise, but the elevated risks and expensive valuation warrant caution. Not investment advice.