Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.48-0.66%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Allegro MicroSystems’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.50 → 1.50 EPS · FY ending Mar 27, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	$265M–$275M	—
EPS	$0.23–$0.26	—
Gross margin	50.75%–51.75%	—
Operating expenses	$83.5M–$85.5M	—
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	276.68M
EPS	—	0.264
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.1B
EPS	—	1.029
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.29B
EPS	—	1.501

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS around $0.21 next quarter	A supporting condition in Allegro MicroSystems's published investment case. The stated target is ~$0.21.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.19 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $0.08 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$0.21. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20260.08 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 195832da-0c32-4587-82ba-3aa46f114b1e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin near 50.5% next quarter	A primary condition in Allegro MicroSystems's published investment case. The stated target is ~50.5%.	Improving	Gross margin falls below 48% next quarter	Gross margin: 48.45% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~50.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 202648.45261 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 195832da-0c32-4587-82ba-3aa46f114b1e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow AI data center sales to 14% of total sales	The company expands in automotive and AI data center markets, with data center sales reaching 14% of Q4 revenue.	Intact	Data center sales share falls below 10% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Data center sales increased from 14% of total sales in 2026-Q4 to 17% in 2027-Q1. Automotive sales grew 15% year-over-year to $165 million in 2027-Q1. Management's focus on AI data center and automotive segments is reflected in these growth trends, delivering on the priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth to at least $890 million in FY26	A primary condition in Allegro MicroSystems's published investment case. The stated target is >= $890 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $890 million in FY26	Revenue: $259.243M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $890 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026259,243,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 195832da-0c32-4587-82ba-3aa46f114b1e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $203.4 million in 2026-Q2 to $259.2 million in 2027-Q1, a 27% year-over-year increase. Management has consistently emphasized sales growth momentum, and the financial results show delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-27 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.50

$1.48 → $1.50 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.29B

$1.25B → $1.29B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.48	$1,250,383,978	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.48	$1,250,383,978	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.49	$1,253,828,808	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$1.49	$1,253,828,808	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$1.49	$1,253,828,808	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$1.49	$1,253,828,808	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$1.49	$1,253,828,808	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$1.53	$1,287,064,576	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$1.53	$1,287,064,576	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-11	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.50	$1,288,880,785	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.50	$1,287,751,986	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.50	$1,287,851,986	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$1.50	$1,287,749,833	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$1.50	$1,287,870,680	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$1.50	$1,287,829,089	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$1.50	$1,287,829,087	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$1.50	$1,287,829,087	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$1.50	$1,287,829,087	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.50	$1,287,829,087	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	0
2026-06-01	12	0
2026-07-01	11	1
2026-08-01	11	1
2026-09-01	11	1
2026-10-01	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 20

$45.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 2

$50.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$27.50$55.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS around $0.21 next quarterDiluted EPS: $0.08 per share
Maintain gross margin near 50.5% next quarterGross margin: 48.45%
Grow AI data center sales to 14% of total salesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth to at least $890 million in FY26Revenue: $259.243M

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Allegro MicroSystems outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented semiconductor business, with expansion in automotive and AI data center sales supporting the multi-year view. The thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium after a recent earnings miss.

What's priced into Allegro MicroSystems

The valuation is expensive versus peers, at a 1.07 premium, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the evidence supports. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but model confidence is also low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong revenue growth and gradual gross margin improvement, while data center and automotive sales are gaining share or growing. Management is on track with these priorities, but the company is loss-making and has a run of earnings misses, including the latest quarter.

What Allegro MicroSystems hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether ALGM sustains growth and margin progress without another guidance cut. Continued strength from technology-sector leaders and lower interest rates could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance would be a meaningful negative.