Akamai Technologies (AKAM)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-15

$87.81-4.89%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Akamai Technologies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-5.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.15 → 6.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt and capital allocation prudently	A supporting condition in Akamai Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt levels and fund cloud expansion efficiently.	Intact	Debt servicing or capital costs materially impair cash flow or margins	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Growth in Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue	Akamai grows revenue about 7% yearly, driven by cloud services.	Intact	Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue growth falls below 30% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue grew from $71 million in 2025-Q2 to $99 million in 2026-Q2, a 39% increase year-over-year. Management highlighted multi-year CIS contracts worth over $2.8 billion, including a $600 million contract, validating their AI infrastructure positioning. The trajectory is delivering with sustained strong growth and contract wins. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Non-GAAP operating margin near 29%	A primary condition in Akamai Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain non-GAAP operating margin around 29%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 25% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Non-GAAP operating margin declined from 30% in 2025-Q2 to 25% in 2026-Q2, with guidance maintaining 25-26% for full year 2026. Management continues to target mid-20% margins despite investments and restructuring. The trajectory shows some margin compression but consistent focus on margin maintenance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Total revenue growth near 7% annually	A primary condition in Akamai Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 5.38% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20265.384602 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 07aeb9b9-5f08-4ac6-9e31-fd24c30fae40. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Total revenue increased from $1.043 billion in 2025-Q2 to $1.1 billion in 2026-Q2, a 5% year-over-year growth. Security revenue grew 10% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasized revenue growth driven by security and CIS segments. The trajectory is delivering with steady revenue increases. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.74

$7.23 → $6.74 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.21B

$4.99B → $5.21B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.23	$4,988,246,730	25 / 25
2026-07-25	$7.23	$4,988,246,730	25 / 25
2026-07-26	$7.23	$4,988,246,730	25 / 25
2026-07-27	$7.16	$4,992,332,670	16 / 19
2026-07-28	$7.23	$4,988,246,730	25 / 25
2026-07-29	$7.23	$4,987,587,760	25 / 25
2026-07-30	$7.23	$4,987,587,760	25 / 25
2026-07-31	$7.23	$4,988,168,010	25 / 25
2026-08-01	$7.23	$4,988,168,010	25 / 25
2026-08-02	$7.20	$4,991,004,550	25 / 25
2026-08-03	$7.20	$4,991,004,550	25 / 25
2026-08-04	$7.20	$4,991,004,550	25 / 25
2026-08-05	$7.20	$4,990,840,550	25 / 25
2026-08-06	$7.20	$4,990,840,550	25 / 25
2026-08-07	$7.12	$4,995,290,197	16 / 19
2026-08-08	$7.20	$5,005,511,120	24 / 24
2026-08-09	$7.20	$5,005,511,120	24 / 24
2026-08-10	$7.20	$5,005,511,120	24 / 24
2026-08-11	$7.12	$4,995,290,197	16 / 19
2026-08-12	$7.16	$5,071,835,330	25 / 24
2026-08-13	$7.16	$5,071,835,330	25 / 24
2026-08-14	$7.12	$4,995,290,197	16 / 19
2026-08-15	$7.12	$4,995,290,197	16 / 19
2026-08-16	$7.12	$4,995,290,197	16 / 19
2026-08-17	$7.12	$4,995,290,197	16 / 19
2026-08-18	$7.12	$4,995,290,197	16 / 19
2026-08-19	$7.12	$4,995,290,197	16 / 19
2026-08-20	$7.12	$4,995,290,197	16 / 19
2026-08-21	$7.12	$5,066,778,277	16 / 18
2026-08-22	$7.12	$5,066,778,277	16 / 18
2026-08-23	$7.12	$5,066,778,277	16 / 18
2026-08-24	$7.12	$5,066,778,277	16 / 18
2026-08-25	$7.13	$5,066,759,104	16 / 18
2026-08-26	$7.13	$5,066,759,104	16 / 18
2026-08-27	$7.13	$5,066,759,104	16 / 18
2026-08-28	$7.13	$5,066,759,104	16 / 18
2026-08-29	$7.13	$5,066,759,104	16 / 18
2026-08-30	$7.13	$5,066,759,104	16 / 18
2026-08-31	$7.13	$5,066,759,104	16 / 18
2026-09-01	$7.14	$5,072,066,958	16 / 18
2026-09-02	$7.17	$5,071,930,595	16 / 18
2026-09-03	$7.17	$5,071,930,595	16 / 19
2026-09-04	$7.17	$5,071,930,595	16 / 19
2026-09-05	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-06	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-07	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-08	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-09	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-10	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-11	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-12	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-13	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-14	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-15	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-16	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-17	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-18	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-19	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-20	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-21	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-22	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-23	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-24	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-25	$7.15	$5,073,784,204	16 / 19
2026-09-26	$6.77	$5,196,320,618	16 / 19
2026-09-27	$6.77	$5,196,320,618	16 / 19
2026-09-28	$6.77	$5,196,320,618	16 / 19
2026-09-29	$6.74	$5,206,103,227	16 / 19
2026-09-30	$6.76	$5,221,671,846	15 / 19
2026-10-01	$6.76	$5,221,654,333	15 / 19
2026-10-02	$6.76	$5,221,654,324	15 / 19
2026-10-03	$6.76	$5,221,654,324	15 / 19
2026-10-04	$6.76	$5,221,654,324	15 / 19
2026-10-05	$6.76	$5,221,654,324	15 / 19
2026-10-06	$6.76	$5,221,654,322	15 / 19
2026-10-07	$6.76	$5,221,654,322	15 / 19
2026-10-08	$6.76	$5,221,654,322	15 / 19
2026-10-09	$6.76	$5,221,654,322	15 / 19
2026-10-10	$6.76	$5,219,172,436	15 / 19
2026-10-11	$6.76	$5,219,172,436	15 / 19
2026-10-12	$6.74	$5,219,172,436	15 / 19
2026-10-13	$6.74	$5,208,672,436	15 / 19
2026-10-14	$6.74	$5,208,672,436	15 / 19
2026-10-15	$6.74	$5,208,672,436	15 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	10	3
2026-06-01	15	9	3
2026-07-01	14	9	2
2026-08-01	16	11	2
2026-09-01	15	10	5
2026-10-01	15	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades11 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 11 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesSep 29 · prior May 8

$140.00 → $170.00+21.4%

D.A. DavidsonSep 28 · prior May 8

$185.00 → $150.00-18.9%

UBSSep 25 · prior Jul 29

$125.00 → $148.00+18.4%

Piper SandlerSep 25 · prior Aug 31

$125.00 → $158.00+26.4%

GuggenheimSep 25

$225.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$123.75$247.50

3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage debt and capital allocation prudentlyQualitative condition
Growth in Cloud Infrastructure Services revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Non-GAAP operating margin near 29%Published status: Broken
Total revenue growth near 7% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Akamai Technologies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a technology-focused investment with a multi-year view. AKAM is positioned as a durable compounder, emphasizing growth in cloud infrastructure services and security revenue.

What's priced into Akamai Technologies

The current valuation suggests that the market views AKAM as relatively cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some growth potential may not be fully reflected in the stock's pricing.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show steady revenue growth, particularly in cloud infrastructure services and security. However, there is some risk of margin compression, as recent results indicate a decline in operating margins.

What Akamai Technologies hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector leaders like Microsoft and Oracle. Additionally, guidance from management in upcoming calls will be crucial, especially if they cut expectations.