Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$317.00-0.75%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Applied Industrial Technologies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.23 → 13.20 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	—	1.25B
EPS	—	2.79
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$7B	5.26B
EPS	$11.65–$12.15	12.035
Revenue growth	4%–6.5%	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.57B
EPS	—	13.204

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at or above $10.7 for fiscal 2026	Earnings per share guidance is raised to about $10.7 for fiscal 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $10.0 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit improvement to sustain above $380 million quarterly	Profit margins improve with gross profit rising to $380.8 million in Q3 2026.	Intact	gross profit falls below $360 million quarterly	Gross profit: $427.934M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $380 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026427,934,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 7% year over year	A primary condition in Applied Industrial Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year	Revenue growth: 10.45% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 202610.447772 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execution of share repurchase program up to 3 million shares	The company is buying back up to 3 million shares, showing strong capital return.	Intact	No meaningful buyback activity within 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$13.20

Unavailable → $13.20 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$5.57B

Unavailable → $5.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	$12.81	$5,458,837,025	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$12.81	$5,458,837,025	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$12.81	$5,458,837,025	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$12.81	$5,458,837,025	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-30	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-08-31	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-01	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-02	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-03	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-04	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-05	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-06	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-07	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-08	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-09	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-10	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-11	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-12	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-13	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-14	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-15	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-16	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-17	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-18	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-19	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-20	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-21	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-22	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-23	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-24	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-26	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-28	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-29	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-10-03	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-10-04	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-10-05	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-10-06	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-10-07	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-10-08	$13.23	$5,565,399,707	6 / 5
2026-10-09	$13.23	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-10	$13.23	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$13.23	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$13.23	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$13.23	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$13.23	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$13.23	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-16	$13.20	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$13.20	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$13.20	$5,565,466,264	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$13.20	$5,566,639,978	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$13.20	$5,566,639,978	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$13.20	$5,566,639,978	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$13.20	$5,566,639,978	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$13.20	$5,566,639,978	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$13.20	$5,566,639,978	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	6	2
2026-08-01	6	2
2026-09-01	6	2
2026-10-01	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior Aug 14

$400.00 → $390.00-2.5%

$0$220.00$440.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at or above $10.7 for fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross profit improvement to sustain above $380 million quarterlyGross profit: $427.934M
Revenue growth of at least 7% year over yearRevenue growth: 10.45%
Execution of share repurchase program up to 3 million sharesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Applied Industrial Technologies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AIT is a growth-and-execution story, with recent strength in organic sales and margins supporting its long-term thesis. The thesis is intact, but confidence is medium because earnings quality is neutral and the business has a history of quarterly misses.

What's priced into Applied Industrial Technologies

AIT is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation is tagged as stretched. The expectations gap is modest, but model confidence is low; recent valuation has also risen, while the evidence does not show a major fragility signal.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show strong performance: fiscal 2026 organic sales grew 5.4%, reaching 10% in the fourth quarter, while EBITDA rose 10% for the year and margins expanded in the quarter. Management has delivered on sales growth and margin priorities, but a guidance cut or a return to missed quarters would weaken the setup; sector conditions are also a headwind.

What Applied Industrial Technologies hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued sales growth and margin expansion, alongside a steady leadership transition. Sector bellwethers GWW, FAST, and FERG are useful signals: continued strong results could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.