American International Group (AIG)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-15

$80.74+2.05%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge American International Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.80 → 8.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.50 and return $760 million capital per quarter	The company returns capital with $0.50 quarterly dividends and $760 million in buybacks and dividends each quarter.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.50 or capital returned falls below $700 million in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS of at least $8.03 in FY26	AIG grows revenue about 12% a year and earns over $8 per share in 2026.	Improving	EPS falls below $7.09 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.78 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8.03 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261.78 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cac05141-7253-4631-9f55-eedc5c1b0464. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful CEO transition and strategic investments execution	Strategic investments in Convex Group and Onex support future growth.	Under Pressure	Material negative news on CEO transition or failed strategic investments	Qualitative: 3 leadership threats vs 0 strategic disruptions Orderly CEO succession offset by leadership suspension and probe; capital allocation remains strong. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 12% annually	A primary condition in American International Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: -0.08% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-0.084614 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cac05141-7253-4631-9f55-eedc5c1b0464. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.83

$8.84 → $8.83 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$31.41B

$31.33B → $31.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-07-25	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-07-26	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-07-27	$8.86	$31,860,978,963	12 / 5
2026-07-28	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-07-29	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-07-30	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-07-31	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-01	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-02	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-03	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-04	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-05	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-06	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-07	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-08	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-09	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-10	$8.84	$31,325,895,970	22 / 5
2026-08-11	$8.82	$31,282,088,970	22 / 6
2026-08-12	$8.81	$31,309,922,300	22 / 6
2026-08-13	$8.81	$31,309,922,300	22 / 6
2026-08-14	$8.86	$31,860,978,963	12 / 5
2026-08-15	$8.86	$31,860,978,963	12 / 5
2026-08-16	$8.86	$31,860,978,963	12 / 5
2026-08-17	$8.86	$31,860,978,963	12 / 5
2026-08-18	$8.86	$31,860,978,963	12 / 5
2026-08-19	$8.86	$31,860,978,963	12 / 5
2026-08-20	$8.86	$31,860,978,963	12 / 5
2026-08-21	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-22	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-23	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-24	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-25	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-26	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-27	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-28	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-29	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-30	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-08-31	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-01	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-02	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-03	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-04	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-05	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-06	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-07	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-08	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-09	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-10	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-11	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-12	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-13	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-14	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-15	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-16	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-17	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-18	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-19	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-20	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-21	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-22	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-23	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-24	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-25	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-26	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-27	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-28	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-29	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-09-30	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-10-01	$8.80	$31,412,468,836	13 / 5
2026-10-02	$8.82	$31,427,759,336	13 / 5
2026-10-03	$8.82	$31,427,759,336	13 / 5
2026-10-04	$8.82	$31,427,759,336	13 / 5
2026-10-05	$8.82	$31,427,759,336	13 / 5
2026-10-06	$8.81	$31,436,234,425	13 / 5
2026-10-07	$8.81	$31,436,234,425	13 / 5
2026-10-08	$8.80	$31,410,791,305	13 / 5
2026-10-09	$8.81	$31,410,791,305	13 / 5
2026-10-10	$8.81	$31,410,791,305	13 / 5
2026-10-11	$8.81	$31,388,174,638	13 / 5
2026-10-12	$8.81	$31,388,174,638	13 / 5
2026-10-13	$8.82	$31,412,939,121	13 / 5
2026-10-14	$8.83	$31,412,939,121	12 / 5
2026-10-15	$8.83	$31,412,939,121	12 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	14
2026-06-01	8	14
2026-07-01	9	14
2026-08-01	8	14
2026-09-01	8	14
2026-10-01	8	14

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Aug 10

$85.00 → $83.00-2.4%

Morgan StanleyOct 6

$80.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$46.75$93.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.50 and return $760 million capital per quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve EPS of at least $8.03 in FY26Diluted EPS: $1.78 per share
Successful CEO transition and strategic investments executionPublished status: Under Pressure
Sustain revenue growth near 12% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

American International Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a mix of a turnaround and a durable compounder. The current thesis state is cautious, given the recent CEO transition and mixed financial performance.

What's priced into American International Group

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not fully accounting for potential turbulence. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown a commitment to disciplined capital management and profitable growth in General Insurance segments. However, the recent financial performance has been neutral, with some mixed results in underwriting discipline.

What American International Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance, sector performance relative to interest rates, and the earnings results of key industry peers. AIG's trajectory may shift based on these influences.